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² Ibid.

³ U.S. Tariff Commission, Trade Barriers: An Overview, No. 665 (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1974), 81–82Google Scholar.

⁴ Pastor (fn. 1), Table 6, p. 119.

⁵ Malmgren, Harald, “Coming Trade Wars?” Foreign Policy 1 (Winter 1970), 115–43CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Bergsten, C. Fred, “The Crisis in US Trade Policy,” Foreign Affairs 49 (July 1971), 619–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kronholz, June, “Trade and Currency Wars Deepen the Depression,” Wall Street Journal, October 23, 1979, p. 1Google Scholar.

Hegemonic stability theorists have also predicted such a resurgence. See Kindle-berger, Charles, The World in Depression, 1929–1939 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1973), esp. 307–8Google Scholar; Gilpin, Robert, US Power and the Multinational Corporation (New York: Basic Books, 1975), esp. 258–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For more skeptical views, see Krasner, Stephen, “State Power and the Structure of International Trade,” World Politics 28 (April 1976), 317–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Keo-hane, Robert O., “The Theory of Hegemonic Stability and Changes in International Economic Regimes,” in Holsti, Ole, Siverson, Randolph, and George, Alexander, eds., Change in the International System (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1980), 131–62Google Scholar.

⁶ Takacs, Wendy, “Pressures for Protectionism: An Empirical Analysis,” Economic Inquiry 19 (October 1981), 687–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar, at 687. In general, see McKeown, Timothy, “Firms and Tariff Regime Change: Explaining the Demand for Protectionism,” World Politics 36 (January 1984), 215–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gallarotti, Giulio, “Toward a Business Cycle Model of Tariffs,” International Organization 39 (Winter 1985), 155–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Strange, Susan and Tooze, Roger, eds., The International Politics of Surplus Capacity (London: Butterworths, 1980)Google Scholar.

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⁹ Gilpin (fn. 5), 258–59. Also see Kindleberger (fn. 5), esp. 307–8; Krasner (fn. 5), 317–47; Keohane (fn. 5), 131–62; Lake, David, “Structure and Strategy: The International Sources of American Trade Policy, 1887–1939” (Ph.D. diss., Cornell University, 1983)Google Scholar; Kindle-Berger, Charles, “Dominance and Leadership in the International Economy,” International Studies Quarterly 25 (June 1981), 242–54CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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¹² Lake (fn. 1); Gerschenkron, Alexander, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1962), chaps. 1 and 2Google Scholar; Hays, Samuel, The Response to Industrialism, 1885–1914 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1957), chaps. 1, 7, 8Google Scholar.

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¹⁴ Lake (fn. 1), Table 3, p. 541; Keohane and Nye (fn. 13), 141.

¹⁵ Feldstein (fn. 7), 193, 196.

¹⁶ Ibid., 191.

¹⁷ U.S. hegemony in money was diminished less than in trade. Its ending of the Bretton Woods system was more an act of power than of weakness, according to many analysts. See Keohane and Nye (fn. 13), 141, 165–86; Odell, John, U.S. International Monetary Policy: Markets, Power, and Ideas as Sources of Change (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1982), chap. 4, esp. p. 219Google Scholar.

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²⁰ Lake, David, “Beneath the Commerce of Nations,” International Studies Quarterly 28 (June 1984), Figs. 5 and 6, pp. 143–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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²⁶ Ibid., chap. 21, Fig. 21.3. Note how all other currencies rise in value against the dollar after the change in 1931.

²⁷ U.S. Tariff Commission (fn. 3), 81–82.

²⁸ Reich, Robert, “Beyond Free Trade,” Foreign Affairs 61 (Spring 1983), 773–804, at 786CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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³⁴ Ibid., chap. 3; Keohane, Robert O., After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984), chaps. 4, 9Google Scholar; Aggarwal, Vinod, Liberal Protectionism: The International Politics of Organized Textile Trade (Berkeley: sity of California Press, 1985), chaps. 2, 7Google Scholar.

³⁵ Lake (fns. 1, 9, and 20). To overcome this difficulty, Lake makes two points: first, that due to the disruption caused by World War I, much greater uncertainty existed in the 1920s, which prompted more protectionist activity. Second, he implies that the height of protectionism globally was in the 1930s, not the 1920s, when the structure was somewhat different. Protectionism, however, was rising world-wide throughout the 1920s; it hit its peak in the U.S. by 1930 and elsewhere by 1933 or 1934. This explanation of trade policy outcomes is more sophisticated and perhaps more accurate than other hegemonic stability arguments, but it still has difficulty accounting for the differences between the 1920s and the 1970s.

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⁴⁸ For the 1920s, see U.S. Congress, Senate, American Branch Factories Abroad, S. Doc. No. 258, 71st Cong., 3rd sess., 1931, p. 27, on the value of U.S. direct foreign investment in manufacturing, and Lipsey (fn. 46), 424, on the value of U.S. manufacturing GNP. For the 1970s, see U.S. Department of Commerce, 1977 Enterprise Statistics (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1981)Google Scholar.

⁴⁹ The figures vary widely. See Grunwald, Joseph and Flamm, Kenneth, Global Factory (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1985), 7Google Scholar; Helleiner, Gerald and Lavergne, Real, “In-tra-firm Trade and Industrial Exports to the U.S.,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 41 (November 1979), 297–312CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Helleiner, Gerald, “Transnational Corporations and the Trade Structure,” in Giersch, Herbert, On the Economics of Intra-Firm Trade (Tubingen: Mohr, 1979), 159–84Google Scholar.

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⁵² Glenn Fong, “Export Dependence and the New Protectionism” (Ph.D. diss., Cornell University, 1982) supports this contention. So does Robert Baldwin (fn. 50). Lavergne (fn. 50) and Goldstein (fn. 43) provide mixed evidence for this assertion.

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⁵⁵ Helleiner, Gerald, “Transnational Enterprise and the New Political Economy of U.S. Trade Policy,” Oxford Economic Papers 291 (March 1977), 102–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar; also Helleiner (fn. 49). See Lipson (fn. 37) for a discussion of the effect of intra-industry trade on industry trade preferences.

⁵⁶ Baldwin (fn. 50) and Lavergne (fn. 50) do not find much influence exercised by these variables, but Pugel, Thomas and Walter, Ingo, “U.S. Corporate Interests and the Political Economy of Trade Policy,” Review of Economics and Statistics 67 (August 1985), 465–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar, do find multinationality to be an important brake on protectionist preferences.

⁵⁷ Lake (fn. 9), chap. 5, p. 8 and Table 5–1.

⁵⁸ Eighteen industries were examined in detail; see Milner, Helen, “Resisting the Protectionist Temptation: Industry Politics and Trade Policy in France and the US in the 1920s and 1970s” (Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, 1986)Google Scholar.

⁵⁹ Many studies have found that high levels or high rates of increase in import penetration are strongly correlated with high levels of demand for protection and high actual levels of protection. See, for example, Baldwin (fn. 50); Lavergne (fn. 50); Goldstein (fn. 43).

⁶⁰ For the full story, see Milner (fn. 58), 138–63.

⁶¹ Ibid., 300–19.

⁶² Ibid., 244–70.

⁶³ Ibid., 343–71.

⁶⁴ Boston Globe, April 13, 1986, Business section, pp. A–1Google Scholar, A–9; Wall Street Journal, March 12, 1986, p. 7Google Scholar; Wall Street Journal, March 31, 1986, p. 2Google Scholar.

⁶⁵ Milner (fn. 58), 190–215.

⁶⁶ Ibid., 320–42.

⁶⁷ New York Times, February 3, 1986, p. D-2; New York Times, March 6, 1986, p. D-3.

⁶⁸ Milner (fn. 58), 271–97.

⁶⁹ Ibid., 372–96.

⁷⁰ Consistent data series on export dependence and multinationality as a percent of GNP from 1945 on are not available. The export dependence data come from Report of the President's Commission (fn. 46), 36. The data on direct foreign investment come from Feldstein (fn. 7), Table 3.30, p. 240.

⁷¹ Milner (fn. 58), chap. 8.

⁷² For example, see Oye, Kenneth A., “The Sterling-Dollar-Franc Triangle: Monetary Diplomacy 1929–1937,” World Politics 38 (October 1985), 173–99, at 199CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁷⁴ Ibid., chap. 5.

⁷⁵ Ibid., see cases and chap. 8.