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Energy and Security in the 1980s

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 June 2011

Joseph S. Nye Jr.
Joseph S. Nye Jr.
Affiliation:
Harvard University
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Abstract

Because alternative sources of energy cannot be developed fast enough in the short term, the problems of energy security in the next decade will continue to focus on oil. The problem is not that the world will run out of oil in this century, but that low-cost oil is heavily concentrated in the Persian Gulf, an area of domestic and international political instability. The current oil glut and soft markets will not solve the energy security problem. Market forces are a necessary but not sufficient element in an effective strategy for energy security. The same can be said about an effective American military presence in the area. Current enthusiasm for enhancing military capabilities can provide only part of a solution when we are dealing with a transnational system such as international energy. Successful analysis must draw on insights both from traditional realism and from studies of power and interdependence. Theories of interdependence and transnational systems are not based upon a world of detente, but remain relevant to the complex threats to national security we face, such as energy in the 1980s.

Type
Review Articles
Information
World Politics , Volume 35 , Issue 1 , October 1982 , pp. 121 - 134
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1982

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References

1 See, for example, Art, Robert J., “To What Ends Military Power?” International Security, No. 4 (Spring 1980).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2 Nau, , “The Evolution of U.S. Foreign Policy in Energy,” in Lawrence, Robert and Heisler, Martin, eds., International Energy Policy (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1980).Google Scholar

3 For a good survey, see Deagle, Edwin A., Mossavar-Rahmani, Bijan, and Huff, Richard, Energy in the 1980: An Analysis of Recent Studies (New York: Rockefeller Foundation, 1980).Google Scholar

4 Brown, William and Kahn, Herman, “Why OPEC is Vulnerable,” Fortune, July 14, 1980, p. 68.Google Scholar

5 , Morgenthau, “The New Diplomacy of Movement,” Encounter (August 1974).Google Scholar

6 See Vernon, Raymond, ed., “The Oil Crisis in Perspective,” Daedalus, Vol. 104 (Fall 1975).Google Scholar

7 Wohlstetter, , “Half-Wars and Half-Policies in the Persian Gulf,” in Thompson, Scott, ed., From Weakness to Strength (San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Studies, 1980), 136.Google Scholar

8 , Keohane and , Nye, Power and Interdependence (Boston: Little, Brown, 1977), 17.Google Scholar

9 Michalak, Stanley J. Jr., “Theoretical Perspectives for Understanding International Interdependence,” World Politics, XXXII (October 1979), 145Google Scholar, 149.

10 ibid., 150.

11 See Keohane, Robert O. and Nye, Joseph S., “Transgovernmental Relations and International Organizations,” World Politics, XXVII (October 1974), 56.Google Scholar

12 On calculating the premiums, see Hogan, William, “Import Management and Oil Emergencies,” in Deese, David and Nye, Joseph S., eds., Energy and Security (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1981), chap. 9.Google Scholar

13 See Keohane and Nye (fn. 8), chap. I.

14 See , Nye, “Japan,” in Deese and Nye (fn. 12).Google Scholar