The Gosnell Prize for Excellence in Political Methodology is awarded for the best work in political methodology presented at any political science conference during the preceding year.

Naoki Egami (Princeton University)

"Identification of Causal Diffusion Effects using Stationary Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs"

Selection committee: Matthew Blackwell (Harvard), Marc Ratkovic (Princeton University), and Fredrik Savje (Yale University)

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Fredrik Savje (Yale), Peter Aronow (Yale), and Michael Hudgens (UNC)

"A Folk Theorem on Interference in Experiments"

Selection committee: Matthew Blackwell (Harvard), Michael Peress (Stony Brook), and Marc Ratkovic (Princeton)

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Matthew Blackwell
Harvard University

"Instrumental Variable Methods for Conditional Effects and Causal Interaction in Voter Mobilization Experiments"

Selection committee: Michael Peress (Stonybrook) and Brandon Stewart (Princeton)

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Marc Rotkovic (Princeton University), Dustin Tingley (Harvard University)

"Sparse Estimation with Uncertainty: Subgroup Analysis in Large Dimensional Designs"

Selection Committee: Michael Peress (Stonybrook), Suzanna Linn (Penn State), Brandon Stewart (Princeton)

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Sebastian Calonico, Matias Cattaneo and Rocio Titiunik

"Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression-Discontinuity Designs"

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Margaret E. Roberts (University of California, San Diego), Brandon M. Stewart (Harvard University), Dustin Tingley (Harvard University), Christopher Lucas (Harvard University), Jetson Leder-Luis (California Institute of Technology), Shana Gadarian (Syracuse University), Bethany Albertson (University of Texas at Austin), and David Rand (Yale University)

"Topic Models for Open-Ended Survey Responses with Applications to Experiments"

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Adam Glynn & Konstantin Kashin
Harvard University

"Front-door Versus Back-door Adjustment with Unmeasured Confounding: Bias Formulas for Front-door and Hybrid Adjustments."

Thomas Gschwend, James Lo, and Sven-Oliver Proksch
University of Mannheim

"A Common Left-Right Scale for Voters and Parties in Europe."

Robert J. Franzese, Jr. (University of Michigan), Jude C. Hays, Aya Kachi (University of Illinois)

"Modeling History-Dependent Network Coevolution"

Jong Hee Park
University of Chicago

"Joint Modeling of Dynamic and Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity: Introducing Hidden Markov Panel Models"

John Freeman (University of Minnesota), and Jeff Gill (Washington University in St. Louis)

"Dynamic Elicited Priors for Updating Covert Networks."

Kevin Quinn
Harvard University

"What Can be Learned from a Simple Table? Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Effects from 2x2 and 2x2xK Tables in the Presence of Unmeasured Confounding."

Alberto Abadie, Alexis Diamond, and Jens Hainmueller
Harvard's Institute for Quantitative Social Science

"Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program."

Michael Penn Colaresi (Michigan State), Michael Crespin (University of Georgia), Burt L. Monroe (Michigan State), Kevin M. Quinn (Harvard), and Dragomir R. Radev (University of Michigan)

"An Automated Method of Topic-Coding Legislative Speech Over Time With Application to the 105th-108th U.S. Senate"

Alexis Diamond (Harvard University) and Jasjeet S. Sekhon (UC Berkeley)

"Genetic Matching for Estimating Causal Effects: A General Multivariate Matching Method for Achieving Balance in Observational Studies."

Henry Brady, John McNulty
UC Berkeley

"A “Natural Experiment” on the Costs of Voting: Methodologies for Analyzing Observational Data when the Treatment is Nearly Randomized."

Won-Ho Park
University of Michigan

"Estimation of Voter Transition Rates and Ecological Inference."

Janet Box-Steffensmeier (The Ohio State University), and Suzanna De Boef (Pennsylvania State University)

"A Monte Carlo Analysis for Recurrent Events Data."

Andrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn
University of Washington

"Bayesian Learning about Ideal Points of U.S. Supreme Court Justices, 1953-1999."

Curtis S. Signorino, Kuzey Yilmaz
University of Rochester

"Strategic Misspecification in Discrete Choice Models."

Nathaniel Beck, (UC San Diego), Gary King (Harvard University), and Langche Zeng (Harvard University on leave from GWU)

"Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture."

Dean Lacy
The Ohio State University

"A Theory of Nonseparable Preferences in Survey Responses."

Gary King
Harvard University

"A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior From Aggregate Data."

Nathaniel Beck (UCSD), and Richard Tucker (Indiana)

"Conflict in Space and Time: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable."

Walter R Mebane, Jr., Jonathan Wand
Cornell University

"Markov Chain Models for Rolling Cross-section Data: How Campaign Events and Political Awareness Affect Vote Intentions and Partisanship in the United States and Canada."

Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier (The Ohio State University), Renee Smith (University of Rochester)

"The Microfoundations of Aggregate Partisanship."

Bradley Palmquist
Harvard University

"Respecification Approaches to Ecological Inference: A Comparison of Control Variables and the Quadratic Model."