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ON COMPLEX ECONOMIC SCENARIO GENERATORS: IS LESS MORE?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2021

Jean-François Bégin Open the ORCID record for Jean-François Bégin [Opens in a new window]
Jean-François Bégin*
Affiliation:
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada, E-Mail: jbegin@sfu.ca
*
E-Mail: jbegin@sfu.ca
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Abstract

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This article proposes a complex economic scenario generator that nests versions of well-known actuarial frameworks. The generator estimation relies on the Bayesian paradigm and accounts for both model and parameter uncertainty via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. So, to the question is less more?, we answer maybe, but it depends on your criteria. From an in-sample fit perspective, on the one hand, a complex economic scenario generator seems better. From the conservatism, forecasting and coverage perspectives, on the other hand, the situation is less clear: having more complex models for the short rate, term structure and stock index returns is clearly beneficial. However, that is not the case for inflation and the dividend yield.

Keywords

Economic scenario generatorslong-term forecastrisk managementscenario simulation
Type
Research Article
Information
ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA , Volume 51 , Issue 3 , September 2021 , pp. 779 - 812
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The International Actuarial Association

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