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Using polygenic scores and clinical data for bipolar disorder patient stratification and lithium response prediction: machine learning approach
- Micah Cearns, Azmeraw T. Amare, Klaus Oliver Schubert, Anbupalam Thalamuthu, Joseph Frank, Fabian Streit, Mazda Adli, Nirmala Akula, Kazufumi Akiyama, Raffaella Ardau, Bárbara Arias, Jean-Michel Aubry, Lena Backlund, Abesh Kumar Bhattacharjee, Frank Bellivier, Antonio Benabarre, Susanne Bengesser, Joanna M. Biernacka, Armin Birner, Clara Brichant-Petitjean, Pablo Cervantes, Hsi-Chung Chen, Caterina Chillotti, Sven Cichon, Cristiana Cruceanu, Piotr M. Czerski, Nina Dalkner, Alexandre Dayer, Franziska Degenhardt, Maria Del Zompo, J. Raymond DePaulo, Bruno Étain, Peter Falkai, Andreas J. Forstner, Louise Frisen, Mark A. Frye, Janice M. Fullerton, Sébastien Gard, Julie S. Garnham, Fernando S. Goes, Maria Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Paul Grof, Ryota Hashimoto, Joanna Hauser, Urs Heilbronner, Stefan Herms, Per Hoffmann, Andrea Hofmann, Liping Hou, Yi-Hsiang Hsu, Stephane Jamain, Esther Jiménez, Jean-Pierre Kahn, Layla Kassem, Po-Hsiu Kuo, Tadafumi Kato, John Kelsoe, Sarah Kittel-Schneider, Sebastian Kliwicki, Barbara König, Ichiro Kusumi, Gonzalo Laje, Mikael Landén, Catharina Lavebratt, Marion Leboyer, Susan G. Leckband, Mario Maj, the Major Depressive Disorder Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Mirko Manchia, Lina Martinsson, Michael J. McCarthy, Susan McElroy, Francesc Colom, Marina Mitjans, Francis M. Mondimore, Palmiero Monteleone, Caroline M. Nievergelt, Markus M. Nöthen, Tomas Novák, Claire O'Donovan, Norio Ozaki, Vincent Millischer, Sergi Papiol, Andrea Pfennig, Claudia Pisanu, James B. Potash, Andreas Reif, Eva Reininghaus, Guy A. Rouleau, Janusz K. Rybakowski, Martin Schalling, Peter R. Schofield, Barbara W. Schweizer, Giovanni Severino, Tatyana Shekhtman, Paul D. Shilling, Katzutaka Shimoda, Christian Simhandl, Claire M. Slaney, Alessio Squassina, Thomas Stamm, Pavla Stopkova, Fasil Tekola-Ayele, Alfonso Tortorella, Gustavo Turecki, Julia Veeh, Eduard Vieta, Stephanie H. Witt, Gloria Roberts, Peter P. Zandi, Martin Alda, Michael Bauer, Francis J. McMahon, Philip B. Mitchell, Thomas G. Schulze, Marcella Rietschel, Scott R. Clark, Bernhard T. Baune
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- Journal:
- The British Journal of Psychiatry / Volume 220 / Issue 4 / April 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 28 February 2022, pp. 219-228
- Print publication:
- April 2022
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- Article
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Background
Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment.
AimsTo use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder.
MethodThis study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework.
ResultsThe best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data.
ConclusionsUsing PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.
Challenges and opportunities to improve autism services in low-income countries: lessons from a situational analysis in Ethiopia
- B. Tekola, Y. Baheretibeb, I. Roth, D. Tilahun, A. Fekadu, C. Hanlon, R. A. Hoekstra
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- Journal:
- Global Mental Health / Volume 3 / 2016
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 July 2016, e21
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- Article
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Background.
Little has been reported about service provision for children with autism in low-income countries. This study explored the current service provision for children with autism and their families in Ethiopia, the existing challenges and urgent needs, and stakeholders’ views on the best approaches to further develop services.
Methods.A situational analysis was conducted based on (i) qualitative interviews with existing service providers; (ii) consultation with a wider group of stakeholders through two stakeholder workshops; and (iii) information available in the public domain. Findings were triangulated where possible.
Results.Existing diagnostic and educational services for children with autism are scarce and largely confined to Ethiopia's capital city, with little provision in rural areas. Families of children with autism experience practical and psychosocial challenges, including severe stigma. Informants further raised the lack of culturally and contextually appropriate autism instruments as an important problem to be addressed. The study informants and local stakeholders provided several approaches for future service provision expansion, including service decentralisation, mental health training and awareness raising initiatives.
Conclusions.Services for children with autism in Ethiopia are extremely limited; appropriate care for these children is further impeded by stigma and lack of awareness. Ethiopia's plans to scale up mental healthcare integrated into primary care provide an opportunity to expand services for children with autism and other developmental disorders. These plans, together with the additional strategies outlined in this paper can help to address the current service provision gaps and may also inform service enhancement approaches in other low-income countries.