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Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan
- Erik Pihl, Eva Alfredsson, Magnus Bengtsson, Kathryn J. Bowen, Vanesa Cástan Broto, Kuei Tien Chou, Helen Cleugh, Kristie Ebi, Clea M. Edwards, Eleanor Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Mukesh Gupta, Alexandra R. Harrington, Katie Hayes, Bronwyn M. Hayward, Sophie R. Hebden, Thomas Hickmann, Gustaf Hugelius, Tatiana Ilyina, Robert B. Jackson, Trevor F. Keenan, Ria A. Lambino, Sebastian Leuzinger, Mikael Malmaeus, Robert I. McDonald, Celia McMichael, Clark A. Miller, Matteo Muratori, Nidhi Nagabhatla, Harini Nagendra, Cristian Passarello, Josep Penuelas, Julia Pongratz, Johan Rockström, Patricia Romero-Lankao, Joyashree Roy, Adam A. Scaife, Peter Schlosser, Edward Schuur, Michelle Scobie, Steven C. Sherwood, Giles B. Sioen, Jakob Skovgaard, Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon, Sebastian Sonntag, Joachim H. Spangenberg, Otto Spijkers, Leena Srivastava, Detlef B. Stammer, Pedro H. C. Torres, Merritt R. Turetsky, Anna M. Ukkola, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Christina Voigt, Chadia Wannous, Mark D. Zelinka
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Volume 4 / 2021
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 27 January 2021, e5
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Non-technical summary
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.
Technical summaryA synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations.
Social media summaryStronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
Chapter 17 - Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development
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- By Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Frank Dentener, Joint Research Center, Dolf Gielen, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Jessica Jewell, Central European University, Zbigniew Klimont, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Volker Krey, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, David McCollum, University of California, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Shilpa Rao, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Bas van Ruijven, PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Detlef P. van Vuuren, PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Charlie Wilson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Morna Isaac, PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Shigeki Kobayashi, Toyota Central R&D Laboratories, Peter Kolp, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Yu Nagai, Vienna University of Technology, Pallav Purohit, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Jules Schers, PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Rita van Dingenen, Joint Research Center, Oscar van Vliet, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 1205-1306
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Summary
Executive Summary
Chapter 17 explores possible transformational pathways of the future global energy system with the overarching aim of assessing the technological feasibility as well as the economic implications of meeting a range of sustainability objectives simultaneously. As such, it aims at the integration across objectives, and thus goes beyond earlier assessments of the future energy system that have mostly focused on either specific topics or single objectives. Specifically, the chapter assesses technical measures, policies, and related costs and benefits for meeting the objectives that were identified in Chapters 2 to 6, including:
providing almost universal access to affordable clean cooking and electricity for the poor;
limiting air pollution and health damages from energy use;
improving energy security throughout the world; and
limiting climate change.
The assessment of future energy pathways in this chapter shows that it is technically possible to achieve improved energy access, air quality, and energy security simultaneously while avoiding dangerous climate change. In fact, a number of alternative combinations of resources, technologies, and policies are found capable of attaining these objectives. From a large ensemble of possible transformations, three distinct groups of pathways (GEA-Supply, GEA-Mix, and GEA-Efficiency) have been identified and analyzed. Within each group, one pathway has been selected as “illustrative” in order to represent alternative evolutions of the energy system toward sustainable development. The pathway groups, together with the illustrative cases, depict salient branching points for policy implementation and highlight different degrees of freedom and different routes to the sustainability objectives.
6 - The albedo climate impacts of biomass and carbon plantations compared with the CO2 impact
- from Part I - Climate system science
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- By M. Schaeffer, Royal Netherlands Embassy The Netherlands, B. Eickhout, Global Sustainability and Climate Team Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), M. Hoogwijk, Ecofys B.V., PO Box 8408 The Netherlands, B. Strengers, Global Sustainability and Climate Team Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), D. van Vuuren, Global Sustainability and Climate Team Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), R. Leemans, Environmental Systems Analysis Group Wageningen University, T. Opsteegh, KNMI, PO Box 201 De Bilt 3730 AE, The Netherlands
- Edited by Michael E. Schlesinger, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Haroon S. Kheshgi, Joel Smith, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, John M. Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Tom Wilson, Charles Kolstad, University of California, Santa Barbara
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- Book:
- Human-Induced Climate Change
- Published online:
- 06 December 2010
- Print publication:
- 11 October 2007, pp 72-83
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Summary
Introduction
Changes in land use and the consequent changes in land-cover properties modify the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere locally and regionally (Kabat et al., 2004). Important factors in these interactions are the biochemical fluxes of CO2 and other trace gases, and the biophysical fluxes of energy and water vapor. Modeling studies, well validated with detailed observations, show that changing land-use in the past centuries influenced local, regional, and probably also global climate patterns (e.g. IPCC, 2001). Historically, land-use mediated climate change appears to be an important factor (Brovkin et al., 1999). In mid to high latitudes, for example, land-use changes influence surface-air temperature because of the large difference in surface albedo between different land covers, such as cropland and forest in snow-covered conditions (Robinson and Kukla, 1985; Bonan et al., 1995; Harding and Pomeroy, 1996; Sharrat, 1998). Emission scenarios, required to estimate future climate change, nowadays often include detailed changes in land-use patterns and the consequent changes in sources and sinks of trace gases (e.g. Strengers et al., 2004). The biophysical consequences on the climate systems are, however, often neglected. It is therefore important to examine the role of land-use changes in determining future climates (Pielke Sr et al., 2002).
Future land-use change does not only include deforestation and afforestation as a consequence of expanding or contracting agriculture. Other land uses, such as plantations for carbon sequestration or energy production (to substitute fossil fuels), are likely to become more important.
Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and soil water availability on root biomass, root length, and N, P and K uptake by wheat
- MARGRET M. I. VAN VUUREN, DAVID ROBINSON, ALASTAIR H. FITTER, SCOTT D. CHASALOW, LISA WILLIAMSON, JOHN A. RAVEN
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- Journal:
- The New Phytologist / Volume 135 / Issue 3 / March 1997
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 March 1997, pp. 455-465
- Print publication:
- March 1997
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We investigated interactions between the effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) and soil water availability on root biomass, root length and nutrient uptake by spring wheat (Triticum aestivum cv. Tonic). We grew plants at 350 and 700 µmol mol−1 CO2 and with frequent and infrequent watering (‘wet’ and ‘dry’ treatments, respectively). Water use per plant was 1·25 times greater at 350 than at 700 µmol CO2 mol−1, and 1·4 times greater in the ‘wet’ than in the ‘dry’ treatment. Root biomass increased with [CO2] and with watering frequency. Elevated [CO2] changed the vertical distribution of the roots, with a greater stimulation of root growth in the top layers of the soil. These data were confirmed by the video data of root lengths in the ‘dry’ treatment, which showed a delayed root development at depth under elevated [CO2]. The apparent amount of N mineralized appeared to be equal for all treatments. Nutrient uptake was affected by [CO2] and by watering frequency, and there were interactions between these treatments. These interactions were different for N, K and P, which appeared to be related to differences in nutrient availability and mobility in the soil. Moreover, these interactions changed with time as the root system became larger with [CO2] and with watering frequency, and as fluctuations in soil moisture contents increased. Elevated [CO2] affected nutrient uptake in contrasting ways. Potassium uptake appeared to be reduced by the smaller mass flow of water reaching the root surface. However, this might be countered with time by the greater root biomass at elevated [CO2], by the greater soil moisture contents at elevated [CO2], enabling faster diffusion, or both. Phosphorus uptake appeared to be increased by the greater root biomass at elevated [CO2]. We conclude that plant nutrient uptake at elevated [CO2] is affected by interactions with water availability, though differences between nutrients preclude generalizations of the response.