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Multilevel Calibration Weighting for Survey Data
- Eli Ben-Michael, Avi Feller, Erin Hartman
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- Journal:
- Political Analysis / Volume 32 / Issue 1 / January 2024
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 31 March 2023, pp. 65-83
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- Article
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In the November 2016 U.S. presidential election, many state-level public opinion polls, particularly in the Upper Midwest, incorrectly predicted the winning candidate. One leading explanation for this polling miss is that the precipitous decline in traditional polling response rates led to greater reliance on statistical methods to adjust for the corresponding bias—and that these methods failed to adjust for important interactions between key variables like educational attainment, race, and geographic region. Finding calibration weights that account for important interactions remains challenging with traditional survey methods: raking typically balances the margins alone, while post-stratification, which exactly balances all interactions, is only feasible for a small number of variables. In this paper, we propose multilevel calibration weighting, which enforces tight balance constraints for marginal balance and looser constraints for higher-order interactions. This incorporates some of the benefits of post-stratification while retaining the guarantees of raking. We then correct for the bias due to the relaxed constraints via a flexible outcome model; we call this approach “double regression with post-stratification.” We use these tools to re-assess a large-scale survey of voter intention in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, finding meaningful gains from the proposed methods. The approach is available in the multical R package.
Contributors
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- By Núria Duran Adroher, Sergio Aguilar-Gaxiola, Jordi Alonso, Ali Obaid Al-Hamzawi, Laura Helena Andrade, Matthias C. Angermeyer, James Anthony, Corina Benjet, Guilherme Borges, Joshua Breslau, Evelyn J. Bromet, Ronny Bruffaerts, Brendan Bunting, Huibert Burger, José Miguel Caldas de Almeida, Graça Cardoso, Somnath Chatterji, Wai Tat Chiu, Giovanni de Girolamo, Ron de Graaf, Peter de Jonge, Koen Demyttenaere, John Fayyad, Alize J. Ferrari, Silvia Florescu, Anne M. Gadermann, Meyer Glantz, Jen Green, Michael J. Gruber, Oye Gureje, Josep Maria Haro, Yanling He, Steven G. Heeringa, Hristo Hinkov, Chiyi Hu, Yueqin Huang, Irving Hwang, Robert Jin, Elie G. Karam, Norito Kawakami, Ronald C. Kessler, Lola Kola, Viviane Kovess-Masféty, Michael C. Lane, Carmen Lara, William LeBlanc, Sing Lee, Jean-Pierre Lépine, Daphna Levinson, Zhaorui Liu, Gustavo Loera, Herbert Marschinger, Katie A. McLaughlin, Maria Elena Medina-Mora, Elizabeth Miller, Samuel D. Murphy, Aimee Nasser Karam, Matthew K. Nock, Mark A. Oakley Browne, Siobhan O’Neill, Johan Ormel, Beth-Ellen Pennell, Maria V. Petukhova, José Posada-Villa, Rajesh Sagar, Mohammad Salih Khalaf, Nancy A. Sampson, Kathleen Saunders, Michael Schoenbaum, Kate M. Scott, Soraya Seedat, Victoria Shahly, Dan J. Stein, Hisateru Tachimori, Nezar Ismet Taib, Adley Tsang, T. Bedirhan Üstün, Maria Carmen Viana, Gemma Vilagut, Michael R. Von Korff, J. Elisabeth Wells, Harvey A. Whiteford, David R. Williams, Ben Wu, Miguel Xavier, Alan M. Zaslavsky
- Edited by Jordi Alonso, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Somnath Chatterji, World Health Organization, Geneva, Yanling He
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- Book:
- The Burdens of Mental Disorders
- Print publication:
- 09 May 2013, pp ix-xii
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