6 results
Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions
- Piers Douglas Lionel Howe, Andrew Perfors, Bradley Walker, Yoshihisa Kashima, Nicolas Fay
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- Journal:
- Judgment and Decision Making / Volume 17 / Issue 5 / September 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 January 2023, pp. 962-987
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Bayesian statistics offers a normative description for how a person should combine their original beliefs (i.e., their priors) in light of new evidence (i.e., the likelihood). Previous research suggests that people tend to under-weight both their prior (base rate neglect) and the likelihood (conservatism), although this varies by individual and situation. Yet this work generally elicits people’s knowledge as single point estimates (e.g., x has a 5% probability of occurring) rather than as a full distribution. Here we demonstrate the utility of eliciting and fitting full distributions when studying these questions. Across three experiments, we found substantial variation in the extent to which people showed base rate neglect and conservatism, which our method allowed us to measure for the first time simultaneously at the level of the individual. While most people tended to disregard the base rate, they did so less when the prior was made explicit. Although many individuals were conservative, there was no apparent systematic relationship between base rate neglect and conservatism within each individual. We suggest that this method shows great potential for studying human probabilistic reasoning.
Evaluating the impact of a health hackathon on collaborative team science: a Social Network Analysis (SNA)
- Layla Fattah, Janice Gabrilove, Fay Bradley
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- Journal:
- Journal of Clinical and Translational Science / Volume 5 / Issue 1 / 2021
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 18 May 2020, e5
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The Mount Sinai Health Hackathon is designed to provide a novel forum to foster experiential team science training. Utilizing a Social Network Analysis survey, we studied the impact of the Mount Sinai Health Hackathon on the nature of collaborative relationships of hackathon participants. After the event, the number of links between participants from different disciplines increased and network density overall increased, suggesting a more interconnected network with greater interdisciplinary communication. This social network approach may be a useful addition to the evaluation strategies for team science education initiatives.
3144 Exploring communication and collaboration at the Mount Sinai Health Hackathon: a social network analysis
- Janice Lynn Gabrilove, Layla Fattah, Fay Bradley
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- Journal:
- Journal of Clinical and Translational Science / Volume 3 / Issue s1 / March 2019
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 26 March 2019, p. 71
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OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The study aims to (1) investigate the structural patterns of professional communication that exist at the Mount Sinai Health Hackathon (2) explore if and how the professional networks of the participants change after engaging in the Mount Sinai Health Hackathon (3) explore any associations between the characteristics of participants’ professional networks and successful innovation development. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The recruitment pool consists of all 78 Mount Sinai Health Hackathon 2018 participants. Characteristics of the social network of Health Hackathon participants are assessed via an SNA data collection instrument at three time points: T1 directly before the Health Hackathon event, T2 directly after the event, T3 six months post-event. The Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Institutional Review Board approved this study as exempt. In order to explore patterns of communication between Health Hackathon participants during event, whole network data is collected at T2. Participants are provide with a roster of Mount Sinai Health hackathon participant names and asked to report the nature, frequency and perceived importance of their interaction with each of the other participants over the duration of the 48 hour event. In order capture any network change in the wider professional networks of the individual participants, known as “ego networks”, participants are asked to complete an SNA ego network survey at time points T1, T2 and T3. Open ended questions asked participants to report up to 20 people they consider being most important to them in their professional network and record the professional background of each person, the nature of the communication and the importance of each person to their success. Finally, at T3 participants are also asked to report on their project success (determined by businesses formed, filed provisional patents, financial income generation). This will be reviewed in relation to their social network data, to see if there is any relationship between the two. Data is analyzed using the specialized SNA software, UCiNET, which creates network sociograms to visualize network data. Descriptive statistics are used to report individual-level characteristics of respondents.RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: To describe the structural patterns of communication at each time point, the following network-level indices are calculated: density (a measure of network cohesion), degree centrality (how many connections the individual has), betweenness centrality (whether the individual provides connections to other people in a network) and closeness centrality (how close the individual is to other people in the network). Network sociograms are generated for each time point to provide a visualization of the network. To explore the hypothesis that participating in the Mount Sinai Health Hackathon increases diversity of a professional network, analysis will focus on whether and how network-level indices change pre- and post- Hackathon. It will also explore any association between network characteristics and project success. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Social Network Analysis of the Mount Sinai Health Hackathon provides an understanding about the structure of relationships that are formed as a result of participation in this event. Although, the design of this study does not allow for inferences of causality, the SNA approach enables an in-depth exploration of Hackathon participants’ professional networks, how these evolve over time and how certain network characteristics may be associated with project success. This information will be used to inform the development, content and delivery of future Health Hackathon initatives.
Contributor affiliations
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- By Frank Andrasik, Melissa R. Andrews, Ana Inés Ansaldo, Evangelos G. Antzoulatos, Lianhua Bai, Ellen Barrett, Linamara Battistella, Nicolas Bayle, Michael S. Beattie, Peter J. Beek, Serafin Beer, Heinrich Binder, Claire Bindschaedler, Sarah Blanton, Tasia Bobish, Michael L. Boninger, Joseph F. Bonner, Chadwick B. Boulay, Vanessa S. Boyce, Anna-Katharine Brem, Jacqueline C. Bresnahan, Floor E. Buma, Mary Bartlett Bunge, John H. Byrne, Jeffrey R. Capadona, Stefano F. Cappa, Diana D. Cardenas, Leeanne M. Carey, S. Thomas Carmichael, Glauco A. P. Caurin, Pablo Celnik, Kimberly M. Christian, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Adriana B. Conforto, Rory A. Cooper, Rosemarie Cooper, Steven C. Cramer, Armin Curt, Mark D’Esposito, Matthew B. Dalva, Gavriel David, Brandon Delia, Wenbin Deng, Volker Dietz, Bruce H. Dobkin, Marco Domeniconi, Edith Durand, Tracey Vause Earland, Georg Ebersbach, Jonathan J. Evans, James W. Fawcett, Uri Feintuch, Toby A. Ferguson, Marie T. Filbin, Diasinou Fioravante, Itzhak Fischer, Agnes Floel, Herta Flor, Karim Fouad, Richard S. J. Frackowiak, Peter H. Gorman, Thomas W. Gould, Jean-Michel Gracies, Amparo Gutierrez, Kurt Haas, C.D. Hall, Hans-Peter Hartung, Zhigang He, Jordan Hecker, Susan J. Herdman, Seth Herman, Leigh R. Hochberg, Ahmet Höke, Fay B. Horak, Jared C. Horvath, Richard L. Huganir, Friedhelm C. Hummel, Beata Jarosiewicz, Frances E. Jensen, Michael Jöbges, Larry M. Jordan, Jon H. Kaas, Andres M. Kanner, Noomi Katz, Matthew S. Kayser, Annmarie Kelleher, Gerd Kempermann, Timothy E. Kennedy, Jürg Kesselring, Fary Khan, Rachel Kizony, Jeffery D. Kocsis, Boudewijn J. Kollen, Hubertus Köller, John W. Krakauer, Hermano I. Krebs, Gert Kwakkel, Bradley Lang, Catherine E. Lang, Helmar C. Lehmann, Angelo C. Lepore, Glenn S. Le Prell, Mindy F. Levin, Joel M. Levine, David A. Low, Marilyn MacKay-Lyons, Jeffrey D. Macklis, Margaret Mak, Francine Malouin, William C. Mann, Paul D. Marasco, Christopher J. Mathias, Laura McClure, Jan Mehrholz, Lorne M. Mendell, Robert H. Miller, Carol Milligan, Beth Mineo, Simon W. Moore, Jennifer Morgan, Charbel E-H. Moussa, Martin Munz, Randolph J. Nudo, Joseph J. Pancrazio, Theresa Pape, Alvaro Pascual-Leone, Kristin M. Pearson-Fuhrhop, P. Hunter Peckham, Tamara L. Pelleshi, Catherine Verrier Piersol, Thomas Platz, Marcus Pohl, Dejan B. Popović, Andrew M. Poulos, Maulik Purohit, Hui-Xin Qi, Debbie Rand, Mahendra S. Rao, Josef P. Rauschecker, Aimee Reiss, Carol L. Richards, Keith M. Robinson, Melvyn Roerdink, John C. Rosenbek, Serge Rossignol, Edward S. Ruthazer, Arash Sahraie, Krishnankutty Sathian, Marc H. Schieber, Brian J. Schmidt, Michael E. Selzer, Mijail D. Serruya, Himanshu Sharma, Michael Shifman, Jerry Silver, Thomas Sinkjær, George M. Smith, Young-Jin Son, Tim Spencer, John D. Steeves, Oswald Steward, Sheela Stuart, Austin J. Sumner, Chin Lik Tan, Robert W. Teasell, Gareth Thomas, Aiko K. Thompson, Richard F. Thompson, Wesley J. Thompson, Erika Timar, Ceri T. Trevethan, Christopher Trimby, Gary R. Turner, Mark H. Tuszynski, Erna A. van Niekerk, Ricardo Viana, Difei Wang, Anthony B. Ward, Nick S. Ward, Stephen G. Waxman, Patrice L. Weiss, Jörg Wissel, Steven L. Wolf, Jonathan R. Wolpaw, Sharon Wood-Dauphinee, Ross D. Zafonte, Binhai Zheng, Richard D. Zorowitz
- Edited by Michael Selzer, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo Cohen, Gert Kwakkel, Robert Miller, Case Western Reserve University, Ohio
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- Book:
- Textbook of Neural Repair and Rehabilitation
- Published online:
- 05 May 2014
- Print publication:
- 24 April 2014, pp ix-xvi
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Contributor affiliations
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- By Frank Andrasik, Melissa R. Andrews, Ana Inés Ansaldo, Evangelos G. Antzoulatos, Lianhua Bai, Ellen Barrett, Linamara Battistella, Nicolas Bayle, Michael S. Beattie, Peter J. Beek, Serafin Beer, Heinrich Binder, Claire Bindschaedler, Sarah Blanton, Tasia Bobish, Michael L. Boninger, Joseph F. Bonner, Chadwick B. Boulay, Vanessa S. Boyce, Anna-Katharine Brem, Jacqueline C. Bresnahan, Floor E. Buma, Mary Bartlett Bunge, John H. Byrne, Jeffrey R. Capadona, Stefano F. Cappa, Diana D. Cardenas, Leeanne M. Carey, S. Thomas Carmichael, Glauco A. P. Caurin, Pablo Celnik, Kimberly M. Christian, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Adriana B. Conforto, Rory A. Cooper, Rosemarie Cooper, Steven C. Cramer, Armin Curt, Mark D’Esposito, Matthew B. Dalva, Gavriel David, Brandon Delia, Wenbin Deng, Volker Dietz, Bruce H. Dobkin, Marco Domeniconi, Edith Durand, Tracey Vause Earland, Georg Ebersbach, Jonathan J. Evans, James W. Fawcett, Uri Feintuch, Toby A. Ferguson, Marie T. Filbin, Diasinou Fioravante, Itzhak Fischer, Agnes Floel, Herta Flor, Karim Fouad, Richard S. J. Frackowiak, Peter H. Gorman, Thomas W. Gould, Jean-Michel Gracies, Amparo Gutierrez, Kurt Haas, C.D. Hall, Hans-Peter Hartung, Zhigang He, Jordan Hecker, Susan J. Herdman, Seth Herman, Leigh R. Hochberg, Ahmet Höke, Fay B. Horak, Jared C. Horvath, Richard L. Huganir, Friedhelm C. Hummel, Beata Jarosiewicz, Frances E. Jensen, Michael Jöbges, Larry M. Jordan, Jon H. Kaas, Andres M. Kanner, Noomi Katz, Matthew S. Kayser, Annmarie Kelleher, Gerd Kempermann, Timothy E. Kennedy, Jürg Kesselring, Fary Khan, Rachel Kizony, Jeffery D. Kocsis, Boudewijn J. Kollen, Hubertus Köller, John W. Krakauer, Hermano I. Krebs, Gert Kwakkel, Bradley Lang, Catherine E. Lang, Helmar C. Lehmann, Angelo C. Lepore, Glenn S. Le Prell, Mindy F. Levin, Joel M. Levine, David A. Low, Marilyn MacKay-Lyons, Jeffrey D. Macklis, Margaret Mak, Francine Malouin, William C. Mann, Paul D. Marasco, Christopher J. Mathias, Laura McClure, Jan Mehrholz, Lorne M. Mendell, Robert H. Miller, Carol Milligan, Beth Mineo, Simon W. Moore, Jennifer Morgan, Charbel E-H. Moussa, Martin Munz, Randolph J. Nudo, Joseph J. Pancrazio, Theresa Pape, Alvaro Pascual-Leone, Kristin M. Pearson-Fuhrhop, P. Hunter Peckham, Tamara L. Pelleshi, Catherine Verrier Piersol, Thomas Platz, Marcus Pohl, Dejan B. Popović, Andrew M. Poulos, Maulik Purohit, Hui-Xin Qi, Debbie Rand, Mahendra S. Rao, Josef P. Rauschecker, Aimee Reiss, Carol L. Richards, Keith M. Robinson, Melvyn Roerdink, John C. Rosenbek, Serge Rossignol, Edward S. Ruthazer, Arash Sahraie, Krishnankutty Sathian, Marc H. Schieber, Brian J. Schmidt, Michael E. Selzer, Mijail D. Serruya, Himanshu Sharma, Michael Shifman, Jerry Silver, Thomas Sinkjær, George M. Smith, Young-Jin Son, Tim Spencer, John D. Steeves, Oswald Steward, Sheela Stuart, Austin J. Sumner, Chin Lik Tan, Robert W. Teasell, Gareth Thomas, Aiko K. Thompson, Richard F. Thompson, Wesley J. Thompson, Erika Timar, Ceri T. Trevethan, Christopher Trimby, Gary R. Turner, Mark H. Tuszynski, Erna A. van Niekerk, Ricardo Viana, Difei Wang, Anthony B. Ward, Nick S. Ward, Stephen G. Waxman, Patrice L. Weiss, Jörg Wissel, Steven L. Wolf, Jonathan R. Wolpaw, Sharon Wood-Dauphinee, Ross D. Zafonte, Binhai Zheng, Richard D. Zorowitz
- Edited by Michael E. Selzer, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Gert Kwakkel, Robert H. Miller, Case Western Reserve University, Ohio
-
- Book:
- Textbook of Neural Repair and Rehabilitation
- Published online:
- 05 June 2014
- Print publication:
- 24 April 2014, pp ix-xvi
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15 - Italic religion
- from PART II - ANCIENT EUROPE IN THE HISTORICAL PERIOD
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- By Guy Bradley, Cardiff University, Fay Glinister, University of Cambridge
- Edited by Lisbeth Bredholt Christensen, University of Freiburg, Germany, Olav Hammer, University of Southern Denmark, David A. Warburton, Aarhus University, Denmark
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- Book:
- The Handbook of Religions in Ancient Europe
- Published by:
- Acumen Publishing
- Published online:
- 05 April 2014
- Print publication:
- 30 November 2013, pp 173-191
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Summary
There are two main questions to address before attempting to write an account of Italic religion: how do we define “Italic religion”, and is there sufficient evidence to discuss it? By “religion” we mean systems of belief and the ritual practices that they entail. Strictly speaking, “Italic” refers to the related languages of Umbrian, South Picene, Oscan and Latin spoken by various peoples in Italy in the first millennium BCE (languages are only attested from the sixth c. BCE onwards). These peoples include the Umbrians, Picenes, peoples of the central Apennines (Sabines, Vestini, Marrucini, Paeligni and Marsi), Campanians, Samnites, Lucanians, Bruttians and Daunians (see Figs 15.1 and 15.2). One might also extend the designation to encompass the Messapian speakers of Apulia, and the Veneti in the north-east (Linderski 1996: 1302), although constraints on space and the limits of our expertise prevent us from treating these peoples too. But the term does not include the Etruscan, Greek, Ligurian or Celtic inhabitants of Italy, and in practice the religion of Latium is so closely bound up with Rome that it is normally treated as part of that city's religious history.
Differentiating Italic from Roman, Etruscan and Greek religion is not always easy or desirable. As might be expected, there were in reality a whole range of religious traditions practised by a great variety of different peoples, who were linked only tenuously by the sharing of linguistic features.