Cumulative burden from vascular risk factors (VRFs) has been associated with an increased risk of depressive symptoms in mid- and later life. It has been hypothesised that this association arises because VRFs disconnect fronto-subcortical white matter tracts involved in mood regulation, which puts older adults at higher risk of developing depressive symptoms. However, evidence for the hypothesis that disconnection of white matter tracts underlies the association between VRF burden and depressive symptoms from longitudinal studies is scarce.

This preregistered study analysed longitudinal data from 6,964 middle-aged and older adults from the UK Biobank who participated in consecutive assessments of VRFs, brain imaging, and depressive symptoms. Using mediation modelling, we directly tested to what extend white matter microstructure mediates the longitudinal association between VRF burden and depressive symptoms.

VRF burden showed a small association with depressive symptoms at follow-up. However, there was no evidence that fractional anisotropy (FA) of white matter tracts mediated this association. Additional analyses also yielded no mediating effects using alternative operationalisations of VRF burden, mean diffusivity (MD) of single tracts, or overall average of tract-based white matter microstructure (global FA, global MD, white matter hyperintensity volume).

Our results lend no support to the hypothesis that disconnection of white matter tracts underlies the association between VRF burden and depressive symptoms, while highlighting the relevance of using longitudinal data to directly test pathways linking vascular and mental health.