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Summary for Policy Makers
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- By Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay), Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology, Sally M. Benson, Stanford University, Daniel H. Bouille, Bariloche Foundation, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Aleh Cherp, Central European University, Suani T. Coelho, National Reference Center on Biomass, University of São Paulo, Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Technical University, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Stephen Karekezi, AFREPREN/FWD, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Zheng Li, Tsinghua University, Susan McDade, United Nations Development Programme), Lynn K. Mytelka, United Nations University-MERIT, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Wim C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 3-30
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Summary
Introduction
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
A major transformation is therefore required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic future consequences for human and planetary systems. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) demonstrates that energy system change is the key for addressing and resolving these challenges. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained and immediate action.
Transformative change in the energy system may not be internally generated; due to institutional inertia, incumbency and lack of capacity and agility of existing organizations to respond effectively to changing conditions. In such situations clear and consistent external policy signals may be required to initiate and sustain the transformative change needed to meet the sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby, reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, some 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the people in the world.
Chapter 6 - Energy and Economy
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- By Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative, Felix Dayo, Triple “E” Systems Inc., Brian Fisher, BAEconomics, Roger Fouquet, Basque Centre for Climate Change, Asmerom Gilau, Triple “E” Systems Inc., Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Marianne Haug, University of Hohenheim, Richard Hosier, World Bank, Alan Miller, International Finance Corporation, Sabine Schnitteger, BAEconomics, Nora Lustig, Tulane University
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 385-422
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Summary
Executive Summary
The three most basic drivers of energy demand are economic activity, population, and technology. Longer-term trends in economic growth for a particular economy depend on underlying demographic and productivity trends, which in turn reflect population growth, labor force participation rate, productivity growth, national savings rate, and capital accumulation (USEIA, 2011).
Several historic shifts are likely to fundamentally alter global demographics over the coming decades. First, as developing nations move from poverty to relative affluence, there is a fundamental shift from agriculture to more energy-intensive but much more productive commercial enterprises. Second, labor forces in the developed countries are aging considerably, which has implications on many fronts, including energy use and employment structures. Third, for the first time the majority of the world's population has become urbanized, with the largest urban centers emerging in developing regions where energy access is a serious constraint. All of these will have immense impacts on the level and quality of energy demand and on concerns about energy security.
Global energy security and sustainability in the twenty-first century will depend less on the total global population than on incomes and their distribution. This in turn will depend to a large extent on how effectively the lack of energy services, which now limit economic opportunities in the less developed regions, is addressed. In addition, energy security will depend on the ability of countries to maintain reliable sources of energy to meet their needs.
Chapter 15 - Energy Supply Systems
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- By Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Stan Bull, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Hans Larsen, Technical University, Vladimir Likhachev, Russian Academy of Sciences, Koji Nagano, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Hans Nilsson, FourFact, Seppo Vuori, VTT Technical Research Centre, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative, Li Zhou, Tsinghua University, Xiliang Zhang, Tsinghua University, John Weyant, Stanford University
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
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- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 1131-1172
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Summary
Executive Summary
A sustainable future depends on more efficient use of the Earth's abundant energy resources in order to meet the rapidly increasing demand for energy services as well as to provide broader access to everyone. In 2005 the overall efficiency of the energy system from primary energy to useful energy was only about 34%. Owing to diverse geographic inequities in both sources and people, supply cannot always meet the demand where needed. Energy pathways from source through conversion, transmission, storage, and distribution to end-users are complicated and presently consist of numerous discrete pathways that differ widely for each energy source and carrier. These include solid fuels, liquid fuels, gaseous fuels (including hydrogen), electricity and heat. Aging equipment, congested networks, and extreme demands complicate this picture in many countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Development of new infrastructure in both non-OECD and OECD countries will lock-in future dependence on conventional or non-conventional energy sources. This chapter aims to assist decision-makers by providing up-todate knowledge on the full range of energy pathways, their management, and operation. Energy systems to achieve a sustainable future should be made much more flexible in order to deal with societal needs and the probable deployment of technologies not yet commercially available (such as smart appliances, electric vehicles, fuel cells, and carbon capture and storage). Technology and policy solutions are available for supporting more energy for sustainable development, but in order to meet the transition necessary to avoid unacceptable events such as social unrest and/or climate change driven temperature rise, they should be put in place rapidly, and done in concert with each other.
Technical Summary
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- By Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology, Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Doug J. Arent, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology, Sally M. Benson, Stanford University, Daniel H. Bouille, Bariloche Foundation, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Aleh Cherp, Central European University, Suani T. Coelho, National Reference Center on Biomass, University of São Paulo, Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Technical University, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Stephen Karekezi, AFREPREN/FWD, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Zheng Li, Tsinghua University, Susan McDade, United Nations Development Programme, Lynn K. Mytelka, United Nations University-MERIT, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Wim C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
-
- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 31-94
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Summary
Introduction
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic, and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace, and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
In this context, two considerations are important. The first is the capacity and agility of the players within the energy system to seize opportunities in response to these challenges. The second is the response capacity of the energy system itself, as the investments are long-term and tend to follow standard financial patterns, mainly avoiding risks and price instabilities. This traditional approach does not embrace the transformation needed to respond properly to the economic, environmental, and social sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
A major transformation is required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for human and planetary systems. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained, and immediate action.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, approximately 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the world's population.