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Rising early warning signals in affect associated with future changes in depression: a dynamical systems approach
- Joshua E. Curtiss, David Mischoulon, Lauren B. Fisher, Cristina Cusin, Szymon Fedor, Rosalind W. Picard, Paola Pedrelli
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- Journal:
- Psychological Medicine / Volume 53 / Issue 7 / May 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 23 December 2021, pp. 3124-3132
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- Article
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Background
Predicting future states of psychopathology such as depressive episodes has been a hallmark initiative in mental health research. Dynamical systems theory has proposed that rises in certain ‘early warning signals’ (EWSs) in time-series data (e.g. auto-correlation, temporal variance, network connectivity) may precede impending changes in disorder severity. The current study investigates whether rises in these EWSs over time are associated with future changes in disorder severity among a group of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD).
MethodsThirty-one patients with MDD completed the study, which consisted of daily smartphone-delivered surveys over 8 weeks. Daily positive and negative affect were collected for the time-series analyses. A rolling window approach was used to determine whether rises in auto-correlation of total affect, temporal standard deviation of total affect, and overall network connectivity in individual affect items were predictive of increases in depression symptoms.
ResultsResults suggested that rises in auto-correlation were significantly associated with worsening in depression symptoms (r = 0.41, p = 0.02). Results indicated that neither rises in temporal standard deviation (r = −0.23, p = 0.23) nor in network connectivity (r = −0.12, p = 0.59) were associated with changes in depression symptoms.
ConclusionsThis study more rigorously examines whether rises in EWSs were associated with future depression symptoms in a larger group of patients with MDD. Results indicated that rises in auto-correlation were the only EWS that was associated with worsening future changes in depression.
Contributors
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- By Douglas L. Arnold, Laura J. Balcer, Amit Bar-Or, Sergio E. Baranzini, Frederik Barkhof, Robert A. Bermel, Francois A. Bethoux, Dennis N. Bourdette, Richard K. Burt, Peter A. Calabresi, Zografos Caramanos, Tanuja Chitnis, Stacey S. Cofield, Jeffrey A. Cohen, Nadine Cohen, Alasdair J. Coles, Devon Conway, Stuart D. Cook, Gary R. Cutter, Peter J. Darlington, Ann Dodds-Frerichs, Ranjan Dutta, Gilles Edan, Michelle Fabian, Franz Fazekas, Massimo Filippi, Elizabeth Fisher, Paulo Fontoura, Corey C. Ford, Robert J. Fox, Natasha Frost, Alex Z. Fu, Siegrid Fuchs, Kazuo Fujihara, Kristin M. Galetta, Jeroen J.G. Geurts, Gavin Giovannoni, Nada Gligorov, Ralf Gold, Andrew D. Goodman, Myla D. Goldman, Jenny Guerre, Stephen L. Hauser, Peter B. Imrey, Douglas R. Jeffery, Stephen E. Jones, Adam I. Kaplin, Michael W. Kattan, B. Mark Keegan, Kyle C. Kern, Zhaleh Khaleeli, Samia J. Khoury, Joep Killestein, Soo Hyun Kim, R. Philip Kinkel, Stephen C. Krieger, Lauren B. Krupp, Emmanuelle Le Page, David Leppert, Scott Litwiller, Fred D. Lublin, Henry F. McFarland, Joseph C. McGowan, Don Mahad, Jahangir Maleki, Ruth Ann Marrie, Paul M. Matthews, Francesca Milanetti, Aaron E. Miller, Deborah M. Miller, Xavier Montalban, Charity J. Morgan, Ichiro Nakashima, Sridar Narayanan, Avindra Nath, Paul W. O’Connor, Jorge R. Oksenberg, A. John Petkau, Michael D. Phillips, J. Theodore Phillips, Tammy Phinney, Sean J. Pittock, Sarah M. Planchon, Chris H. Polman, Alexander Rae-Grant, Stephen M. Rao, Stephen C. Reingold, Maria A. Rocca, Richard A. Rudick, Amber R. Salter, Paula Sandler, Jaume Sastre-Garriga, John R. Scagnelli, Dana J. Serafin, Lynne Shinto, Nancy L. Sicotte, Jack H. Simon, Per Soelberg Sørensen, Ryan E. Stagg, James M. Stankiewicz, Lael A. Stone, Amy Sullivan, Matthew Sutliff, Jessica Szpak, Alan J. Thompson, Bruce D. Trapp, Helen Tremlett, Maria Trojano, Orla Tuohy, Rhonda R. Voskuhl, Marc K. Walton, Mike P. Wattjes, Emmanuelle Waubant, Martin S. Weber, Howard L Weiner, Brian G. Weinshenker, Bianca Weinstock-Guttman, Jeffrey L. Winters, Jerry S. Wolinsky, Vijayshree Yadav, E. Ann Yeh, Scott S. Zamvil
- Edited by Jeffrey A. Cohen, Richard A. Rudick
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- Book:
- Multiple Sclerosis Therapeutics
- Published online:
- 05 December 2011
- Print publication:
- 20 October 2011, pp viii-xii
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- Chapter
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