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9 - An Uncertain Future of Immigration in Europe: Insights from Expert-Based Stochastic Forecasts for Selected Countries
- Edited by Marek Okolski
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- Book:
- European Immigrations
- Published by:
- Amsterdam University Press
- Published online:
- 03 February 2021
- Print publication:
- 21 August 2012, pp 211-232
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Summary
A research paradigm for the uncertain world (Kupiszewski and Kupiszewska)
The theoretical underpinning of this volume is the analysis of changes in migration patterns over time, discovering regularities and formulating a theory describing the observed migration processes. Marek Okólski offered such a theory in chapter 1. Migration forecasting allows for the extension, albeit with a degree of uncertainty, of migration patterns into the future. In an ideal and reasonably predictable world, it would be possible to use forecasts to identify the moment of transition from an emigration to an immigration country for those countries that are in the transition phase. To do so, the IDEA project team (see note 9 in Introduction) tried to introduce some quantitative measure of the stage in the migration cycle and to develop some kind of ‘trajectory’ on which each country could have been located, depending on its migration system characteristics. However, operationalising the theory turned out to be an impossible task due to its longterm perspective. Also posing a challenge were the irregularity of the migration processes involved, complexity and inherent differences in the historical changes in migration observed in various countries (see chapter 2) and uncertainty embedded in forecasting (see later in this section). Substantial impact of historical and political processes (for example, the demise of communism in Central Europe and the 2010-2011 revolts sweeping Arab World countries), which have profound impact on migration flow counts, is impossible to account for in a theoretical framework, although it is very apparent in statistics. This failure is not a surprise: Sture Öberg and Babette Wils (1998) and Marek Kupiszewski (2002) noted that theories of migration are always difficult, and very often impossible, to operationalise and use for forecasting purposes.
Apart from purely theoretical considerations, migration forecasting serves utilitarian purposes by supporting the formulation of migration policies. The authors of this chapter feel strongly that migration policies are often formulated without a firm base of factual support and are rather predicated on qualitative information only. While chapters 3 through 8 present data on past trends, this forecasting exercise is done in an effort to provide some quantitative insight into the future and thus provide a better factual basis for policymaking. The Bayesian forecasting method, implemented in the IDEA project, allows for combining qualitative information with statistical data. Moreover, it has an added bonus: very clearly showing how much uncertainty is involved in the forecasts.
7 - Long-Term International Migration Scenarios For Europe, 2002-2052
- Edited by Corrado Bonifazi, Marek Okólski, Jeanette Schoorl, Patrick Simon
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- Book:
- International Migration in Europe
- Published by:
- Amsterdam University Press
- Published online:
- 22 June 2021
- Print publication:
- 03 August 2008, pp 129-152
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Summary
Introduction
The hypotheses regarding the future shape of international migration are not only demographic by nature, but also have to take into account various economic, political, sociological and ethnic factors. Moreover, migration is a phenomenon characterised by a much higher level of uncertainty and is much more controversial in terms of expectations for the future than fertility or mortality. For these reasons, predicting migration is very difficult and the results of various forecasts often prove to be unsuccessful, bearing very high prediction errors.
This article presents assumptions for the future development of long-term international migration in 27 European countries for the period 2002 to 2052. The assumptions have been developed to serve as an input for forecasts and simulations of population and labour force dynamics in Europe. In geographic terms, the analysis covers the European Union excepting Cyprus and Malta, plus Norway, Switzerland, as well as two EU accession countries – Bulgaria and Romania. With due respect to the demographic dispute about distinguishing between ‘forecasts’ and ‘projections’, we have used the term ‘forecast’ throughout the study to stress that the outcome reflects our beliefs about what we expect to be the possible future migration and population development paths (see Ahlburg & Lutz 1998).
The article starts with a description of legal and political developments concerning freedom of movement in Europe, as well as assumptions of the forecasts in that respect, which are shown in section 7.2. In two subsequent sections (7.3 and 7.4), qualitative migration scenarios are presented, respectively for movements among the countries under study and for population exchange with the rest of the world. These scenarios describing our knowledge-based expectations of future changes in international population flows are quantified using the algorithms described in detail in section 7.5. The results of the analysis, including the impact of the assumed scenarios on population forecasts for the selected European countries, are summarised in brief in the sixth section of the article. Finally, section 7.7 presents a synopsis of the outcomes, as well as the major conclusions of the study.
Freedom of movement in Europe: status quo and Assumptions
The high profile of migration policy in the public debate in recent years in the old EU-15 countries has greatly influenced negotiations on EU enlargement.