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Improving measles incidence inference using age-structured serological data
- Joaquin M. Prada, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Matthew J. Ferrari
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- Journal:
- Epidemiology & Infection / Volume 146 / Issue 13 / October 2018
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 06 August 2018, pp. 1699-1706
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Measles is a target for elimination in all six WHO regions by 2020, and over the last decade, there has been considerable progress towards this goal. Surveillance is recognised as a cornerstone of elimination programmes, allowing early identification of outbreaks, thus enabling control and preventing re-emergence. Fever–rash surveillance is increasingly available across WHO regions, and this symptom-based reporting is broadly used for measles surveillance. However, as measles control increases, symptom-based cases are increasingly likely to reflect infection with other diseases with similar symptoms such as rubella, which affects the same populations, and can have a similar seasonality. The WHO recommends that cases from suspected measles outbreaks be laboratory-confirmed, to identify ‘true’ cases, corresponding to measles IgM titres exceeding a threshold indicative of infection. Although serological testing for IgM has been integrated into the fever–rash surveillance systems in many countries, the logistics of sending in every suspected case are often beyond the health system's capacity. We show how age data from serologically confirmed cases can be leveraged to infer the status of non-tested samples, thus strengthening the information we can extract from symptom-based surveillance. Applying an age-specific confirmation model to data from three countries with divergent epidemiology across Africa, we identify the proportion of cases that need to be serologically tested to achieve target levels of accuracy in estimated infected numbers and discuss how this varies depending on the epidemiological context. Our analysis provides an approach to refining estimates of incidence leveraging all available data, which has the potential to improve allocation of resources, and thus contribute to rapid and efficient control of outbreaks.
Contributors
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- By Núria Duran Adroher, Sergio Aguilar-Gaxiola, Jordi Alonso, Ali Obaid Al-Hamzawi, Laura Helena Andrade, Matthias C. Angermeyer, James Anthony, Corina Benjet, Guilherme Borges, Joshua Breslau, Evelyn J. Bromet, Ronny Bruffaerts, Brendan Bunting, Huibert Burger, José Miguel Caldas de Almeida, Graça Cardoso, Somnath Chatterji, Wai Tat Chiu, Giovanni de Girolamo, Ron de Graaf, Peter de Jonge, Koen Demyttenaere, John Fayyad, Alize J. Ferrari, Silvia Florescu, Anne M. Gadermann, Meyer Glantz, Jen Green, Michael J. Gruber, Oye Gureje, Josep Maria Haro, Yanling He, Steven G. Heeringa, Hristo Hinkov, Chiyi Hu, Yueqin Huang, Irving Hwang, Robert Jin, Elie G. Karam, Norito Kawakami, Ronald C. Kessler, Lola Kola, Viviane Kovess-Masféty, Michael C. Lane, Carmen Lara, William LeBlanc, Sing Lee, Jean-Pierre Lépine, Daphna Levinson, Zhaorui Liu, Gustavo Loera, Herbert Marschinger, Katie A. McLaughlin, Maria Elena Medina-Mora, Elizabeth Miller, Samuel D. Murphy, Aimee Nasser Karam, Matthew K. Nock, Mark A. Oakley Browne, Siobhan O’Neill, Johan Ormel, Beth-Ellen Pennell, Maria V. Petukhova, José Posada-Villa, Rajesh Sagar, Mohammad Salih Khalaf, Nancy A. Sampson, Kathleen Saunders, Michael Schoenbaum, Kate M. Scott, Soraya Seedat, Victoria Shahly, Dan J. Stein, Hisateru Tachimori, Nezar Ismet Taib, Adley Tsang, T. Bedirhan Üstün, Maria Carmen Viana, Gemma Vilagut, Michael R. Von Korff, J. Elisabeth Wells, Harvey A. Whiteford, David R. Williams, Ben Wu, Miguel Xavier, Alan M. Zaslavsky
- Edited by Jordi Alonso, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Somnath Chatterji, World Health Organization, Geneva, Yanling He
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- The Burdens of Mental Disorders
- Print publication:
- 09 May 2013, pp ix-xii
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Contributors
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- By Krista Adamek, Ana Luisa K. Albernaz, J. Marcio Ayres†, Andrew J. Baker, Karen L. Bales, Adrian A. Barnett, Christopher Barton, John M. Bates, Jennie Becker, Bruna M. Bezerra, Júlio César Bicca-Marques, Richard Bodmer, Jean P. Boubli, Mark Bowler, Sarah A. Boyle, Christini Barbosa Caselli, Janice Chism, Elena P. Cunningham, José Maria C. da Silva, Lesa C. Davies, Nayara de Alcântara Cardoso, Manuella A. de Souza, Stella de la Torre, Ana Gabriela de Luna, Thomas R. Defler, Anthony Di Fiore, Eduardo Fernandez-Duque, Stephen F. Ferrari, Wilsea M.B. Figueiredo-Ready, Tracy Frampton, Paul A. Garber, Brian W. Grafton, L. Tremaine Gregory, Maria L. Harada, Amy Harrison-Levine, Walter C. Hartwig, Stefanie Heiduck, Eckhard W. Heymann, André Hirsch, Leandro Jerusalinsky, Gareth Jones, Richard F. Kay, Martin M. Kowalewski, Shawn M. Lehman, Laura Marsh, Jesús Martinez, William A. Mason, Hope Matthews, Wynlyn McBride, Shona McCann-Wood, W. Scott McGraw, D. Jeffrey Meldrum, Sally P. Mendoza, Nohelia Mercado, Russell A. Mittermeier, Mirjam N. Nadjafzadeh, Marilyn A. Norconk, Robert Gary Norman, Marcela Oliveira, Marcelo M. Oliveira, Maria Juliana Ospina Rodríguez, Erwin Palacios, Suzanne Palminteri, Liliam P. Pinto, Marcio Port-Carvalho, Leila Porter, Carlos Portillo-Quintero, George Powell, Ghillean T. Prance, Rodrigo C. Printes, Pablo Puertas, P. Kirsten Pullen, Helder L. Queiroz, Luis Reginaldo R. Rodrigues, Adriana Rodríguez, Alfred L. Rosenberger, Anthony B. Rylands, Ricardo R. Santos, Horacio Schneider, Eleonore Z.F. Setz, Suleima S.B. Silva, José S. Silva Júnior, Andrew T. Smith, Marcelo C. Sousa, Antonio S. Souto, Wilson R. Spironello, Masanaru Takai, Marcelo F. Tejedor, Cynthia L. Thompson, Diego G. Tirira, Raul Tupayachi, Bernardo Urbani, Liza M. Veiga, Marianela Velilla, João Valsecchi, Jean-Christophe Vié, Tatiana M. Vieira, Suzanne E. Walker-Pacheco, Rob Wallace, Patricia C. Wright, Charles E. Zartman
- Edited by Liza M. Veiga, Universidade Federal do Pará, Brazil, Adrian A. Barnett, Roehampton University, London, Stephen F. Ferrari, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, Brazil, Marilyn A. Norconk, Kent State University, Ohio
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- Book:
- Evolutionary Biology and Conservation of Titis, Sakis and Uacaris
- Published online:
- 05 April 2013
- Print publication:
- 11 April 2013, pp xii-xv
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