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2349: Development of a Pediatric Hydrocephalus Severity Index to predict long-term clinical outcomes
- Rowland Han, Yan Yan, Abhaya Kulkarni, T.S. Park, Matthew Smyth, Jennifer Strahle, David Limbrick
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- Journal:
- Journal of Clinical and Translational Science / Volume 1 / Issue S1 / September 2017
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 10 May 2018, pp. 74-75
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- Article
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OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: To create a composite index, referred to as the Pediatric Hydrocephalus Severity Index (PHSI), to classify the severity of disease at baseline and predict outcomes among children treated for hydrocephalus. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The Hydrocephalus Outcome Questionnaire will be administered in person or online to the parents of 150 patients between the ages of 5 and 18 years who are followed at the Neurosurgery Clinic at St. Louis Children’s Hospital for hydrocephalus. Patients must have been diagnosed and treated for hydrocephalus at least 6 months prior to the survey date. Potential participants are excluded if their health status changed during the 4 weeks prior to survey date, as determined by the child’s parents. Potential risk factors (see anticipated results) will be identified on retrospective medical record review. We will create a clinical prediction rule, called the PHSI, to stratify patients on likelihood of experiencing a poor long-term outcome after surgical treatment. Participants will be classified as “good” or “poor” outcome based on thresholds set for questionnaire results. We will use a combination of bivariate analysis and clinical reasoning to restrict the number of factors for further analysis, and multivariate logistic regression to build a predictive model for poor outcome. Creation of the PHSI will involve assigning integer values to adjusted odds ratios for significant risk factors at a 95% confidence level. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Risk factors that we anticipate will be predictive of long-term clinical outcome include signs and symptoms at onset (bulging fontanel, splayed sutures, papilledema, up-gaze palsy, headache, vomiting, lethargy), head circumference above the 97th percentile, frontal-occipital horn ratio greater than 0.4, etiology of meningitis or neonatal intraventricular hemorrhage, central nervous system comorbidities (seizures, Chiari malformation, scoliosis, periventricular leukomalacia), preoperative infection or sepsis, and frequent shunt revisions or infections. We hypothesize that a PHSI will be a valuable tool for stratifying patients in future research studies, as well as aiding prognosis in clinical situations. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: A validated composite PHSI would be a major advance in clinical hydrocephalus research and practice. A PHSI would allow investigators to stratify patients based on initial presentation for clinical research studies, which may in turn lead to the establishment of more standardized treatment guidelines. It would also facilitate studies investigating differential utilization of healthcare resources based on disease severity. Clinically, a PHSI would better equip physicians to counsel parents on what to expect for their child or future healthcare resource requirements.
Contributors
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- By Basem Abdelmalak, Joseph Abdelmalak, Alaa A. Abd-Elsayed, David L. Adams, Eric E. Adelman, Maged Argalious, Endrit Bala, Gene H. Barnett, Sheron Beltran, Andrew Bielaczyc, William Bingaman, James M. Blum, Alina Bodas, Vera Borzova, Richard Bowers, Adam Brown, Chad M. Brummett, Alexandra S. Bullough, James F. Burke, Juan P. Cata, Neeraj Chaudhary, Michael J. Claybon, Miguel Cruz, Milind Deogaonkar, Vikram Dhawan, Thomas Didier, D. John Doyle, Zeyd Ebrahim, Hesham Elsharkawy, Wael Ali Sakr Esa, Ehab Farag, Ryen D. Fons, Joseph J. Gemmete, Matt Giles, Phil Gillen, Goodarz Golmirzaie, Marcos Gomes, Lisa Grilly, Maged Guirguis, David W. Healy, Heather Hervey-Jumper, Shawn L. Hervey-Jumper, Paul E. Hilliard, Samuel A. Irefin, George K. Istaphanous, Teresa L. Jacobs, Ellen Janke, Greta Jo, James W. Jones, Rami Karroum, Allen Keebler, Stephen J. Kimatian, Colleen G. Koch, Robert Scott Kriss, Andrea Kurz, Jia Lin, Michael D. Maile, Negmeldeen F. Mamoun, Mariel Manlapaz, Edward Manno, Donn Marciniak, Piyush Mathur, Nicholas F. Marko, Matthew Martin, George A. Mashour, Marco Maurtua, Scott T. McCardle, Julie McClelland, Uma Menon, Paul S. Moor, Laurel E. Moore, Ruairi Moulding, Dileep R. Nair, Todd Nelson, Julie Niezgoda, Edward Noguera, Jerome O’Hara, Aditya S. Pandey, Mauricio Perilla, Paul Picton, Marc J. Popovich, J. Javier Provencio, Venkatakrishna Rajajee, Mohit Rastogi, Stacy Ritzman, Lauryn R. Rochlen, Leif Saager, Vivek Sabharwal, Oren Sagher, Kenneth Saliba, Milad Sharifpour, Lesli E. Skolarus, Paul Smythe, Wolf H. Stapelfeldt, William R. Stetler, Peter Stiles, Vijay Tarnal, Khoi D. Than, B. Gregory Thompson, Alparslan Turan, Christopher R. Turner, Justin Upp, Sumeet Vadera, Jennifer Vance, Anthony C. Wang, Robert J. Weil, Marnie B. Welch, Karen K. Wilkins, Erin S. Williams, George N. Youssef, Asma Zakaria, Sherif S. Zaky, Andrew Zura
- Edited by George A. Mashour, Ehab Farag
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- Book:
- Case Studies in Neuroanesthesia and Neurocritical Care
- Published online:
- 03 May 2011
- Print publication:
- 03 February 2011, pp x-xvi
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Neurology out-patients with symptoms unexplained by disease: illness beliefs and financial benefits predict 1-year outcome
- M. Sharpe, J. Stone, C. Hibberd, C. Warlow, R. Duncan, R. Coleman, R. Roberts, R. Cull, A. Pelosi, J. Cavanagh, K. Matthews, R. Goldbeck, R. Smyth, A. Walker, J. Walker, A. MacMahon, G. Murray, A. Carson
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- Journal:
- Psychological Medicine / Volume 40 / Issue 4 / April 2010
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 23 July 2009, pp. 689-698
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Background
Patients whose symptoms are ‘unexplained by disease’ often have a poor symptomatic outcome after specialist consultation, but we know little about which patient factors predict this. We therefore aimed to determine predictors of poor subjective outcome for new neurology out-patients with symptoms unexplained by disease 1 year after the initial consultation.
MethodThe Scottish Neurological Symptom Study was a 1-year prospective cohort study of patients referred to secondary care National Health Service neurology clinics in Scotland (UK). Patients were included if the neurologist rated their symptoms as ‘not at all’ or only ‘somewhat explained’ by organic disease. Patient-rated change in health was rated on a five-point Clinical Global Improvement (CGI) scale (‘much better’ to ‘much worse’) 1 year later.
ResultsThe 12-month outcome data were available on 716 of 1144 patients (63%). Poor outcome on the CGI (‘unchanged’, ‘worse’ or ‘much worse’) was reported by 482 (67%) out of 716 patients. The only strong independent baseline predictors were patients' beliefs [expectation of non-recovery (odds ratio [OR] 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40–2.96), non-attribution of symptoms to psychological factors (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.51–3.26)] and the receipt of illness-related financial benefits (OR 2.30, 95% CI 1.37–3.86). Together, these factors predicted 13% of the variance in outcome.
ConclusionsOf the patients, two-thirds had a poor outcome at 1 year. Illness beliefs and financial benefits are more useful in predicting poor outcome than the number of symptoms, disability and distress.