7 results
Derivation and validation of a risk assessment model for drug-resistant pathogens in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia
- Michael B. Rothberg, Sarah Haessler, Abhishek Deshpande, Pei-Chun Yu, Peter K. Lindenauer, Marya D. Zilberberg, Thomas L. Higgins, Peter B. Imrey
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- Journal:
- Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 44 / Issue 7 / July 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 29 September 2022, pp. 1143-1150
- Print publication:
- July 2023
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Objective:
To derive and validate a model for risk of resistance to first-line community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) therapy.
Design:We developed a logistic regression prediction model from a large multihospital discharge database and validated it versus the Drug Resistance in Pneumonia (DRIP) score in a holdout sample and another hospital system outside that database. Resistance to first-line CAP therapy (quinolone or third generation cephalosporin plus macrolide) was based on blood or respiratory cultures.
Setting:This study was conducted using data from 177 Premier Healthcare database hospitals and 11 Cleveland Clinic hospitals.
Participants:Adults hospitalized for CAP.
Exposure:Risk factors for resistant infection.
Results:Among 138,762 eligible patients in the Premier database, 12,181 (8.8%) had positive cultures and 5,200 (3.8%) had organisms resistant to CAP therapy. Infection with a resistant organism in the previous year was the strongest predictor of resistance; markers of acute illness (eg, receipt of mechanical ventilation or vasopressors) and chronic illness (eg, pressure ulcer, paralysis) were also associated with resistant infections. Our model outperformed the DRIP score with a C-statistic of 0.71 versus 0.63 for the DRIP score (P < .001) in the Premier holdout sample, and 0.65 versus 0.58 (P < .001) in Cleveland Clinic hospitals. Clinicians at Premier facilities used broad-spectrum antibiotics for 20%–30% of patients. In discriminating between patients with and without resistant infections, physician judgment slightly outperformed the DRIP instrument but not our model.
Conclusions:Our model predicting infection with a resistant pathogen outperformed both the DRIP score and physician practice in an external validation set. Its integration into practice could reduce unnecessary use of broad-spectrum antibiotics.
Failure to Communicate: Transmission of Extensively Drug-Resistant blaOXA-237-Containing Acinetobacter baumannii—Multiple Facilities in Oregon, 2012–2014
- Genevieve L. Buser, P. Maureen Cassidy, Margaret C. Cunningham, Susan Rudin, Andrea M. Hujer, Robert Vega, Jon P. Furuno, Steven H. Marshall, Paul G. Higgins, Michael R. Jacobs, Meredith S. Wright, Mark D. Adams, Robert A. Bonomo, Christopher D. Pfeiffer, Zintars G. Beldavs
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- Journal:
- Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 38 / Issue 11 / November 2017
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 05 September 2017, pp. 1335-1341
- Print publication:
- November 2017
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OBJECTIVE
To determine the scope, source, and mode of transmission of a multifacility outbreak of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Acinetobacter baumannii.
DESIGNOutbreak investigation.
SETTING AND PARTICIPANTSResidents and patients in skilled nursing facilities, long-term acute-care hospital, and acute-care hospitals.
METHODSA case was defined as the incident isolate from clinical or surveillance cultures of XDR Acinetobacter baumannii resistant to imipenem or meropenem and nonsusceptible to all but 1 or 2 antibiotic classes in a patient in an Oregon healthcare facility during January 2012–December 2014. We queried clinical laboratories, reviewed medical records, oversaw patient and environmental surveillance surveys at 2 facilities, and recommended interventions. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and molecular analysis were performed.
RESULTSWe identified 21 cases, highly related by PFGE or healthcare facility exposure. Overall, 17 patients (81%) were admitted to either long-term acute-care hospital A (n=8), or skilled nursing facility A (n=8), or both (n=1) prior to XDR A. baumannii isolation. Interfacility communication of patient or resident XDR status was not performed during transfer between facilities. The rare plasmid-encoded carbapenemase gene blaOXA-237 was present in 16 outbreak isolates. Contact precautions, chlorhexidine baths, enhanced environmental cleaning, and interfacility communication were implemented for cases to halt transmission.
CONCLUSIONSInterfacility transmission of XDR A. baumannii carrying the rare blaOXA-237 was facilitated by transfer of affected patients without communication to receiving facilities.
Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:1335–1341
Contributors
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- By Mitchell Aboulafia, Frederick Adams, Marilyn McCord Adams, Robert M. Adams, Laird Addis, James W. Allard, David Allison, William P. Alston, Karl Ameriks, C. Anthony Anderson, David Leech Anderson, Lanier Anderson, Roger Ariew, David Armstrong, Denis G. Arnold, E. J. Ashworth, Margaret Atherton, Robin Attfield, Bruce Aune, Edward Wilson Averill, Jody Azzouni, Kent Bach, Andrew Bailey, Lynne Rudder Baker, Thomas R. Baldwin, Jon Barwise, George Bealer, William Bechtel, Lawrence C. Becker, Mark A. Bedau, Ernst Behler, José A. Benardete, Ermanno Bencivenga, Jan Berg, Michael Bergmann, Robert L. Bernasconi, Sven Bernecker, Bernard Berofsky, Rod Bertolet, Charles J. Beyer, Christian Beyer, Joseph Bien, Joseph Bien, Peg Birmingham, Ivan Boh, James Bohman, Daniel Bonevac, Laurence BonJour, William J. Bouwsma, Raymond D. Bradley, Myles Brand, Richard B. Brandt, Michael E. Bratman, Stephen E. Braude, Daniel Breazeale, Angela Breitenbach, Jason Bridges, David O. Brink, Gordon G. Brittan, Justin Broackes, Dan W. Brock, Aaron Bronfman, Jeffrey E. Brower, Bartosz Brozek, Anthony Brueckner, Jeffrey Bub, Lara Buchak, Otavio Bueno, Ann E. Bumpus, Robert W. Burch, John Burgess, Arthur W. Burks, Panayot Butchvarov, Robert E. Butts, Marina Bykova, Patrick Byrne, David Carr, Noël Carroll, Edward S. Casey, Victor Caston, Victor Caston, Albert Casullo, Robert L. Causey, Alan K. L. Chan, Ruth Chang, Deen K. Chatterjee, Andrew Chignell, Roderick M. Chisholm, Kelly J. Clark, E. J. Coffman, Robin Collins, Brian P. Copenhaver, John Corcoran, John Cottingham, Roger Crisp, Frederick J. Crosson, Antonio S. Cua, Phillip D. Cummins, Martin Curd, Adam Cureton, Andrew Cutrofello, Stephen Darwall, Paul Sheldon Davies, Wayne A. Davis, Timothy Joseph Day, Claudio de Almeida, Mario De Caro, Mario De Caro, John Deigh, C. F. Delaney, Daniel C. Dennett, Michael R. DePaul, Michael Detlefsen, Daniel Trent Devereux, Philip E. Devine, John M. Dillon, Martin C. Dillon, Robert DiSalle, Mary Domski, Alan Donagan, Paul Draper, Fred Dretske, Mircea Dumitru, Wilhelm Dupré, Gerald Dworkin, John Earman, Ellery Eells, Catherine Z. Elgin, Berent Enç, Ronald P. Endicott, Edward Erwin, John Etchemendy, C. Stephen Evans, Susan L. Feagin, Solomon Feferman, Richard Feldman, Arthur Fine, Maurice A. Finocchiaro, William FitzPatrick, Richard E. Flathman, Gvozden Flego, Richard Foley, Graeme Forbes, Rainer Forst, Malcolm R. Forster, Daniel Fouke, Patrick Francken, Samuel Freeman, Elizabeth Fricker, Miranda Fricker, Michael Friedman, Michael Fuerstein, Richard A. Fumerton, Alan Gabbey, Pieranna Garavaso, Daniel Garber, Jorge L. A. Garcia, Robert K. Garcia, Don Garrett, Philip Gasper, Gerald Gaus, Berys Gaut, Bernard Gert, Roger F. Gibson, Cody Gilmore, Carl Ginet, Alan H. Goldman, Alvin I. Goldman, Alfonso Gömez-Lobo, Lenn E. Goodman, Robert M. Gordon, Stefan Gosepath, Jorge J. E. Gracia, Daniel W. Graham, George A. Graham, Peter J. Graham, Richard E. Grandy, I. Grattan-Guinness, John Greco, Philip T. Grier, Nicholas Griffin, Nicholas Griffin, David A. Griffiths, Paul J. Griffiths, Stephen R. Grimm, Charles L. Griswold, Charles B. Guignon, Pete A. Y. Gunter, Dimitri Gutas, Gary Gutting, Paul Guyer, Kwame Gyekye, Oscar A. Haac, Raul Hakli, Raul Hakli, Michael Hallett, Edward C. Halper, Jean Hampton, R. James Hankinson, K. R. Hanley, Russell Hardin, Robert M. Harnish, William Harper, David Harrah, Kevin Hart, Ali Hasan, William Hasker, John Haugeland, Roger Hausheer, William Heald, Peter Heath, Richard Heck, John F. Heil, Vincent F. Hendricks, Stephen Hetherington, Francis Heylighen, Kathleen Marie Higgins, Risto Hilpinen, Harold T. Hodes, Joshua Hoffman, Alan Holland, Robert L. Holmes, Richard Holton, Brad W. Hooker, Terence E. Horgan, Tamara Horowitz, Paul Horwich, Vittorio Hösle, Paul Hoβfeld, Daniel Howard-Snyder, Frances Howard-Snyder, Anne Hudson, Deal W. Hudson, Carl A. Huffman, David L. Hull, Patricia Huntington, Thomas Hurka, Paul Hurley, Rosalind Hursthouse, Guillermo Hurtado, Ronald E. Hustwit, Sarah Hutton, Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa, Harry A. Ide, David Ingram, Philip J. Ivanhoe, Alfred L. Ivry, Frank Jackson, Dale Jacquette, Joseph Jedwab, Richard Jeffrey, David Alan Johnson, Edward Johnson, Mark D. Jordan, Richard Joyce, Hwa Yol Jung, Robert Hillary Kane, Tomis Kapitan, Jacquelyn Ann K. Kegley, James A. Keller, Ralph Kennedy, Sergei Khoruzhii, Jaegwon Kim, Yersu Kim, Nathan L. King, Patricia Kitcher, Peter D. Klein, E. D. Klemke, Virginia Klenk, George L. Kline, Christian Klotz, Simo Knuuttila, Joseph J. Kockelmans, Konstantin Kolenda, Sebastian Tomasz Kołodziejczyk, Isaac Kramnick, Richard Kraut, Fred Kroon, Manfred Kuehn, Steven T. Kuhn, Henry E. Kyburg, John Lachs, Jennifer Lackey, Stephen E. Lahey, Andrea Lavazza, Thomas H. Leahey, Joo Heung Lee, Keith Lehrer, Dorothy Leland, Noah M. Lemos, Ernest LePore, Sarah-Jane Leslie, Isaac Levi, Andrew Levine, Alan E. Lewis, Daniel E. Little, Shu-hsien Liu, Shu-hsien Liu, Alan K. L. Chan, Brian Loar, Lawrence B. Lombard, John Longeway, Dominic McIver Lopes, Michael J. Loux, E. J. Lowe, Steven Luper, Eugene C. Luschei, William G. Lycan, David Lyons, David Macarthur, Danielle Macbeth, Scott MacDonald, Jacob L. Mackey, Louis H. Mackey, Penelope Mackie, Edward H. Madden, Penelope Maddy, G. B. Madison, Bernd Magnus, Pekka Mäkelä, Rudolf A. Makkreel, David Manley, William E. Mann (W.E.M.), Vladimir Marchenkov, Peter Markie, Jean-Pierre Marquis, Ausonio Marras, Mike W. Martin, A. P. Martinich, William L. McBride, David McCabe, Storrs McCall, Hugh J. McCann, Robert N. McCauley, John J. McDermott, Sarah McGrath, Ralph McInerny, Daniel J. McKaughan, Thomas McKay, Michael McKinsey, Brian P. McLaughlin, Ernan McMullin, Anthonie Meijers, Jack W. Meiland, William Jason Melanson, Alfred R. Mele, Joseph R. Mendola, Christopher Menzel, Michael J. Meyer, Christian B. Miller, David W. Miller, Peter Millican, Robert N. Minor, Phillip Mitsis, James A. Montmarquet, Michael S. Moore, Tim Moore, Benjamin Morison, Donald R. Morrison, Stephen J. Morse, Paul K. Moser, Alexander P. D. Mourelatos, Ian Mueller, James Bernard Murphy, Mark C. Murphy, Steven Nadler, Jan Narveson, Alan Nelson, Jerome Neu, Samuel Newlands, Kai Nielsen, Ilkka Niiniluoto, Carlos G. Noreña, Calvin G. Normore, David Fate Norton, Nikolaj Nottelmann, Donald Nute, David S. Oderberg, Steve Odin, Michael O’Rourke, Willard G. Oxtoby, Heinz Paetzold, George S. Pappas, Anthony J. Parel, Lydia Patton, R. P. Peerenboom, Francis Jeffry Pelletier, Adriaan T. Peperzak, Derk Pereboom, Jaroslav Peregrin, Glen Pettigrove, Philip Pettit, Edmund L. Pincoffs, Andrew Pinsent, Robert B. Pippin, Alvin Plantinga, Louis P. Pojman, Richard H. Popkin, John F. Post, Carl J. Posy, William J. Prior, Richard Purtill, Michael Quante, Philip L. Quinn, Philip L. Quinn, Elizabeth S. Radcliffe, Diana Raffman, Gerard Raulet, Stephen L. Read, Andrews Reath, Andrew Reisner, Nicholas Rescher, Henry S. Richardson, Robert C. Richardson, Thomas Ricketts, Wayne D. Riggs, Mark Roberts, Robert C. Roberts, Luke Robinson, Alexander Rosenberg, Gary Rosenkranz, Bernice Glatzer Rosenthal, Adina L. Roskies, William L. Rowe, T. M. Rudavsky, Michael Ruse, Bruce Russell, Lilly-Marlene Russow, Dan Ryder, R. M. Sainsbury, Joseph Salerno, Nathan Salmon, Wesley C. Salmon, Constantine Sandis, David H. Sanford, Marco Santambrogio, David Sapire, Ruth A. Saunders, Geoffrey Sayre-McCord, Charles Sayward, James P. Scanlan, Richard Schacht, Tamar Schapiro, Frederick F. Schmitt, Jerome B. Schneewind, Calvin O. Schrag, Alan D. Schrift, George F. Schumm, Jean-Loup Seban, David N. Sedley, Kenneth Seeskin, Krister Segerberg, Charlene Haddock Seigfried, Dennis M. Senchuk, James F. Sennett, William Lad Sessions, Stewart Shapiro, Tommie Shelby, Donald W. Sherburne, Christopher Shields, Roger A. Shiner, Sydney Shoemaker, Robert K. Shope, Kwong-loi Shun, Wilfried Sieg, A. John Simmons, Robert L. Simon, Marcus G. Singer, Georgette Sinkler, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Matti T. Sintonen, Lawrence Sklar, Brian Skyrms, Robert C. Sleigh, Michael Anthony Slote, Hans Sluga, Barry Smith, Michael Smith, Robin Smith, Robert Sokolowski, Robert C. Solomon, Marta Soniewicka, Philip Soper, Ernest Sosa, Nicholas Southwood, Paul Vincent Spade, T. L. S. Sprigge, Eric O. Springsted, George J. Stack, Rebecca Stangl, Jason Stanley, Florian Steinberger, Sören Stenlund, Christopher Stephens, James P. Sterba, Josef Stern, Matthias Steup, M. A. Stewart, Leopold Stubenberg, Edith Dudley Sulla, Frederick Suppe, Jere Paul Surber, David George Sussman, Sigrún Svavarsdóttir, Zeno G. Swijtink, Richard Swinburne, Charles C. Taliaferro, Robert B. Talisse, John Tasioulas, Paul Teller, Larry S. Temkin, Mark Textor, H. S. Thayer, Peter Thielke, Alan Thomas, Amie L. Thomasson, Katherine Thomson-Jones, Joshua C. Thurow, Vzalerie Tiberius, Terrence N. Tice, Paul Tidman, Mark C. Timmons, William Tolhurst, James E. Tomberlin, Rosemarie Tong, Lawrence Torcello, Kelly Trogdon, J. D. Trout, Robert E. Tully, Raimo Tuomela, John Turri, Martin M. Tweedale, Thomas Uebel, Jennifer Uleman, James Van Cleve, Harry van der Linden, Peter van Inwagen, Bryan W. Van Norden, René van Woudenberg, Donald Phillip Verene, Samantha Vice, Thomas Vinci, Donald Wayne Viney, Barbara Von Eckardt, Peter B. M. Vranas, Steven J. Wagner, William J. Wainwright, Paul E. Walker, Robert E. Wall, Craig Walton, Douglas Walton, Eric Watkins, Richard A. Watson, Michael V. Wedin, Rudolph H. Weingartner, Paul Weirich, Paul J. Weithman, Carl Wellman, Howard Wettstein, Samuel C. Wheeler, Stephen A. White, Jennifer Whiting, Edward R. Wierenga, Michael Williams, Fred Wilson, W. Kent Wilson, Kenneth P. Winkler, John F. Wippel, Jan Woleński, Allan B. Wolter, Nicholas P. Wolterstorff, Rega Wood, W. Jay Wood, Paul Woodruff, Alison Wylie, Gideon Yaffe, Takashi Yagisawa, Yutaka Yamamoto, Keith E. Yandell, Xiaomei Yang, Dean Zimmerman, Günter Zoller, Catherine Zuckert, Michael Zuckert, Jack A. Zupko (J.A.Z.)
- Edited by Robert Audi, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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- Book:
- The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy
- Published online:
- 05 August 2015
- Print publication:
- 27 April 2015, pp ix-xxx
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Notes on contributors
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- By Stuart Allen, Simon Bainbridge, Andrew Bennett, Toby R. Benis, John Bugg, Sally Bushell, James Chandler, Daniel Cook, Richard Cronin, David Fairer, Michael Ferber, Frances Ferguson, Kurt Fosso, Paul H. Fry, Stephen Gill, Kevis Goodman, Scott Hess, David Higgins, Noel Jackson, Robin Jarvis, Susan M. Levin, Maureen N. Mclane, Samantha Matthews, Tim Milnes, Michael O’Neill, Judith W. Page, Alexander Regier, Jonathan Roberts, Daniel Robinson, Ann Wierda Rowland, Philip Shaw, Peter Simonsen, Christopher Stokes, Sophie Thomas, Anne D. Wallace, Joshua Wilner
- Edited by Andrew Bennett, University of Bristol
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- Book:
- William Wordsworth in Context
- Published online:
- 05 February 2015
- Print publication:
- 12 February 2015, pp ix-xvi
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Red Blood Cell Transfusion: Experience in a Rural Aeromedical Transport Service
- George L. Higgins III, Michael R. Baumann, Kevin M. Kendall, Michael A. Watts, Tania D. Strout
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- Journal:
- Prehospital and Disaster Medicine / Volume 27 / Issue 3 / June 2012
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 12 June 2012, pp. 231-234
- Print publication:
- June 2012
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Introduction
The administration of blood products to critically ill patients can be life-saving, but is not without risk. During helicopter transport, confined work space, communication challenges, distractions of multi-tasking, and patient clinical challenges increase the potential for error. This paper describes the in-flight red blood cell transfusion practice of a rural aeromedical transport service (AMTS) with respect to whether (1) transfusion following an established protocol can be safely and effectively performed, and (2) patients who receive transfusions demonstrate evidence of improvement in condition.
MethodsA two-year retrospective review of the in-flight transfusion experience of a single-system AMTS servicing a rural state was conducted. Data elements recorded contemporaneously for each transfusion were analyzed, and included hematocrit and hemodynamic status before and after transfusion. Compliance with an established transfusion protocol was determined through structured review by a multidisciplinary quality review committee.
ResultsDuring the study, 2,566 missions were flown with 45 subjects (1.7%) receiving in-flight transfusion. Seventeen (38%) of these transports were scene-to-facility and 28 (62%) were inter-facility. Mean bedside and in-flight times were 22 minutes (range 3-109 minutes) and 24 minutes (range 8-76 minutes), respectively. The most common conditions requiring transfusion were trauma (71%), cardiovascular (13%) and gastrointestinal (11%). An average of 2.4 liters (L) of crystalloid was administered pre-transfusion. The mean transfusion was 1.4 units of packed red blood cells. The percentages of subjects with pre- and post-transfusion systolic blood pressures of <90 mmHg were 71% and 29%, respectively. The pre- and post-transfusion mean arterial pressures were 62 mmHg and 82 mmHg, respectively. The pre- and post- transfusion mean hematocrit levels were 17.8% and 30.4%, respectively. At the receiving institution, 9% of subjects died in the Emergency Department, 18% received additional transfusion within 30 minutes of arrival, 36% went directly to the operating room, and 36% were directly admitted to intensive care. Thirty-one percent of subjects died prior to hospital discharge. There were no protocol violations or reported high-risk provider blood exposure incidents or transfusion complications. All transfusions were categorized as appropriate.
ConclusionsIn this rural AMTS, transfusion was an infrequent, likely life-saving, and potentially high-risk emergent therapy. Strict compliance with an established transfusion protocol resulted in appropriate and effective decisions, and transfusion proved to be a safe in-flight procedure for both patients and providers.
Higgins GL 3rd, Baumann MR, Kendall KM, Watts MA, Strout TD. Red blood cell transfusion: experience in a rural aeromedical transport service. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2012;27(3):1-4.
Collaboration between Civilian and Military Healthcare Professionals: A Better Way for Planning, Preparing, and Responding to All Hazard Domestic Events
- LeRoy A. Marklund, Adrienne M. Graham, Patricia G. Morton, Charles G. Hurst, Ivette Motola, Donald W. Robinson, Vivian A. Kelley, Kimberly J. Elenberg, Michael F. Russler, Daniel E. Boehm, Jr, Dawn M. Higgins, Patrick E. McAndrew, Hope M. Williamson, Rodney D. Atwood, Kermit D. Huebner, Angel A. Brotons, Geoffrey T. Miller, Laukton Y. Rimpel, Larry L. Harris, Manuel Santiago, LeRoy Cantrell
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- Journal:
- Prehospital and Disaster Medicine / Volume 25 / Issue 5 / October 2010
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 28 June 2012, pp. 399-412
- Print publication:
- October 2010
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Collaboration is used by the US National Security Council as a means to integrate inter-federal government agencies during planning and execution of common goals towards unified, national security. The concept of collaboration has benefits in the healthcare system by building trust, sharing resources, and reducing costs. The current terrorist threats have made collaborative medical training between military and civilian agencies crucial.
This review summarizes the long and rich history of collaboration between civilians and the military in various countries and provides support for the continuation and improvement of collaborative efforts. Through collaboration, advances in the treatment of injuries have been realized, deaths have been reduced, and significant strides in the betterment of the Emergency Medical System have been achieved. This review promotes collaborative medical training between military and civilian medical professionals and provides recommendations for the future based on medical collaboration.
8 - Coalition or Fianna Fail? The politics of inter-party government in Ireland
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- By Michael Laver, University College, Galway, Michael D. Higgins, University College, Galway
- Edited by Geoffrey Pridham
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- Book:
- Coalitional Behaviour in Theory and Practice
- Published online:
- 05 November 2011
- Print publication:
- 13 November 1986, pp 171-197
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Summary
Introduction
Each of the five coalitions that have formed in the history of the Irish state has been the only alternative to a single-party (Fianna Fail) government. There can be no doubt that this is the single most salient feature of the politics of coalition in Ireland. In the first place it means that Ireland is a member, with Norway and Sweden, of that small group of countries in which coalitions and single-party governments tend to alternate in office. In the second place, it is an idiosyncratic member even of this exclusive club. Fianna Fail, the institution of single-party government, is a populist party of the centre-right, and has always refused to share power with anyone. This means that the coalitions that must form to replace it in office, unlike those in Norway and Sweden, have always needed to span the entire ideological range of Irish politics. While the ideological range of mainstream Irish politics is much narrower than that to be found in most European democracies, this nevertheless means that coalition members have been forced either to put up with or to forget considerable policy differences if they wanted to remain in power.
The normal processes of coalition bargaining are severely constrained in Ireland. Bargaining power in coalition negotiations is usually denominated, ultimately, in threats to bring down the government. Such threats depend upon the existence of viable alternative coalitions.