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4 - Risk of Extreme and Rare Events: Lessons from a Selection of Approaches
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- By Vicki M. Bier, Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Wisconsin – Madison, Madison, WI, Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics, Seatauket, NY, Yacov Y. Haimes, Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, James H. Lambert, Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, Mitchell J. Small, Departments of Civil Engineering & Environmental Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
- Edited by Timothy McDaniels, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Mitchell Small, Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania
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- Book:
- Risk Analysis and Society
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 24 November 2003, pp 74-118
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Summary
GUILDENSTERN: We have been spinning coins together since I don't know when, and in all that time … I don't suppose either of us was more than a couple of gold pieces up or down. I hope that doesn't sound surprising because its very unsurprisingness is something I am trying to keep hold of. The equanimity of your average tosser of coins depends upon a law, or rather a tendency, or let us say a probability, or at any rate a mathematically calculable chance, which ensures that he will not upset himself by losing too much nor upset his opponent by winning too often. This made for a kind of harmony and a kind of confidence. It related the fortuitous and the ordained into a reassuring union which we recognized as nature. The sun came up about as often as it went down, in the long run, and a coin showed heads about as often as it showed tails. Then a messenger arrived. We had been sent for … Ninety-two coins spun consecutively have come down heads ninety-two consecutive times.
Tom Stoppard Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are DeadINTRODUCTION
Extreme and rare events have captured our imagination. They have inspired fear, introspection, art, literature, religion, law, science, and engineering. Are they acts of God or acts of man; destined or random; to be expected, designed for, and perhaps controlled, or rather ignored, left off of our “worry budgets,” and responded to only if they occur?
1 - Introduction – Risk Anaysis and Society: An Interdisciplinary Characterization of the Field
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- By Timothy L. McDaniels, School of Community and Regional Planning, Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, Mitchell J. Small, Departments of Civil Engineering & Environmental Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
- Edited by Timothy McDaniels, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Mitchell Small, Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania
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- Book:
- Risk Analysis and Society
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 24 November 2003, pp 1-12
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Summary
RISK ANALYSIS AND SOCIETY
Being alive means seeking opportunities and taking risks. For people living in modern society at the beginning of the twenty-first century, being alive means grappling with a complex and growing array of risks to the well-being of humans and the natural environment. It also means increasing concern for the how these risks are understood, characterized, and managed. Hence, we have the human dread of and fascination for risk and the increasingly important role of risk analysis within societies.
Since the beginning of human development, risks to health and well-being have led to adaptive responses that open paths for change. When neolithic family groups shared knowledge and resources for combating hunger, thirst, climate, or outside attack, they were trying to manage risks they faced. Jared Diamond's recent book, Guns, Germs, and Steel, presents the complex and fundamental decisions faced by hunter-gatherers when considering whether to adopt food production in place of their traditional foraging way of life (Diamond, 1999). Issues of uncertainty, value trade-offs, community knowledge, outside expertise, ethical dilemmas, and the imposition of risks by others were all part of those choices.
Risk management has been a fundamental motivation for development of social and governance structures over the last 10,000 years. The onset of agricultural production brought increasing population and permanent settlements. Concentrated population in turn led to greater risks of drought, famine, and conquest by others. Settlements thus created the need for infrastructures for managing these risks, such as water supply, food storage, and defenses.
6 - Uncertain Risk: The Role and Limits of Quantitative Assessment
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- By Alison C. Cullen, The Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, Mitchell J. Small, Departments of Civil Engineering & Environmental Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
- Edited by Timothy McDaniels, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Mitchell Small, Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania
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- Book:
- Risk Analysis and Society
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 24 November 2003, pp 163-212
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Summary
INTRODUCTION
The assessment and management of uncertain risks is an essential component of science, engineering, medicine, business, law, and other modern disciplines. I. Good argues that risk science based on the evaluation of probabilistic events has been useful in saving and improving lives throughout history, “since the assessment of uncertainty incorporates the idea of learning from experience which most creatures do” (Good, 1959). Learning from experience is only part of the challenge, since many decisions involve new or evolving risk scenarios in which humans have little or no experience. Risk management capabilities must include the ability to respond to risks that are known and well understood, and the ability to detect and anticipate those that are newly emerging (e.g., U.S. EPA SAB, 1995; NRC, 1999; U.S. EPA ORD, 2000). Uncertainty analysis provides a framework for characterizing the position of a problem along this continuum and the implications for appropriate response and management.
Uncertainty about risk arises as a result of a fundamental lack of understanding about how the world works, randomness in the outcome of natural and human processes, and an inability to measure, characterize, or even at times define key quantities of interest that affect, or are affected by, risk. Risks can vary across time, space, and from individual to individual in a population. Characterization of these variations is an essential part of a risk analysis; however, the basic knowledge or data to fully and effectively characterize risk, and its variability, are often lacking.