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Chapter 18 - Urban Energy Systems
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- By Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Xuemei Bai, Australian National University, Thomas Buettner, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Shobhakar Dhakal, Global Carbon Project and National Institute for Environmental Studies, David J. Fisk, Imperial College London, Toshiaki Ichinose, National Institute for Environmental Studies, James E. Keirstead, Imperial College London, Gerd Sammer, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, David Satterthwaite, International Institute for Environment and Development, Niels B. Schulz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Imperial College, Nilay Shah, Imperial College London, Julia Steinberger, The Institute of Social Ecology, Austria and University of Leeds, Helga Weisz, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Gilbert Ahamer, University of Graz, Timothy Baynes, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Daniel Curtis, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Michael Doherty, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Nick Eyre, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Junichi Fujino, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Keisuke Hanaki, University of Tokyo, Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Shinji Kaneko, Hiroshima University, Manfred Lenzen, University of Sydney, Jacqui Meyers, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hitomi Nakanishi, University of Canberra, Victoria Novikova, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Krishnan S. Rajan, International Institute of Information Technology, Seongwon Seo, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Ram M. Shrestha, Asian Institute of Technology, Priyadarshi R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management, Alice Sverdlik, International Institute for Environment and Development, Jayant Sathaye, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 1307-1400
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Summary
Executive Summary
More than 50% of the global population already lives in urban settlements and urban areas are projected to absorb almost all the global population growth to 2050, amounting to some additional three billion people. Over the next decades the increase in rural population in many developing countries will be overshadowed by population flows to cities. Rural populations globally are expected to peak at a level of 3.5 billion people by around 2020 and decline thereafter, albeit with heterogeneous regional trends. This adds urgency in addressing rural energy access, but our common future will be predominantly urban. Most of urban growth will continue to occur in small-to medium-sized urban centers. Growth in these smaller cities poses serious policy challenges, especially in the developing world. In small cities, data and information to guide policy are largely absent, local resources to tackle development challenges are limited, and governance and institutional capacities are weak, requiring serious efforts in capacity building, novel applications of remote sensing, information, and decision support techniques, and new institutional partnerships. While ‘megacities’ with more than 10 million inhabitants have distinctive challenges, their contribution to global urban growth will remain comparatively small.
Energy-wise, the world is already predominantly urban. This assessment estimates that between 60–80% of final energy use globally is urban, with a central estimate of 75%. Applying national energy (or GHG inventory) reporting formats to the urban scale and to urban administrative boundaries is often referred to as a ‘production’ accounting approach and underlies the above GEA estimate.
3 - Urban climate
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- By Reginald Blake, New York City College of Technology, Alice Grimm, Universidade Federal do Paranà, Toshiaki Ichinose, Nagoya University/National Institute for Environmental Studies, Radley Horton, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, Stuart Gaffin, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, Shu Jiong, East China Normal University, Daniel Bader, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, L. DeWayne Cecil, US Geological Survey
- Edited by Cynthia Rosenzweig, William D. Solecki, Hunter College, City University of New York, Stephen A. Hammer, Columbia University, New York, Shagun Mehrotra, Columbia University, New York
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- Book:
- Climate Change and Cities
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 April 2011, pp 43-82
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Summary
Introduction
Cities play a multidimensional role in the climate change story. Urban climate effects, in particular the urban heat island effect, comprise some of the oldest observations in climatology, dating from the early nineteenth century work of meteorologist Luke Howard (Howard, 1820). This substantially predates the earliest scientific thought about human fossil fuel combustion and global warming by chemist Svante Arrhenius (Arrhenius, 1896). As areas of high population density and economic activity, cities may be responsible for upwards of 40 percent of total worldwide greenhouse gas emissions (Satterthwaite, 2008), although various sources have claimed percentages as high as 80 percent (reviewed in Satterthwaite, 2008). Figure 3.1 shows a remotely sensed map of nocturnal lighting from urban areas that is visible from space and vividly illustrates one prodigious source of energy use in cities. Megacities, often located on the coasts and often containing vulnerable populations, are also highly susceptible to climate change impacts, in particular sea level rise. At the same time, as centers of economic growth, information, and technological innovation, cities will play a positive role in both climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Urban population recently surpassed non-urban population worldwide and is projected to grow from 50 percent currently to 70 percent by 2050 (UNFPA, 2007). The urban population growth rate will be even more rapid in developing countries. In terms of absolute numbers, urban population will grow from ~3.33 billion today to ~6.4 billion in 2050, about a 90 percent increase.