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About the Geneva Declaration
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- Global Burden of Armed Violence 2015
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Summary
The Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development, endorsed by more than 110 countries, commits signatories to supporting initiatives intended to measure the human, social, and economic costs of armed violence, to assess risks and vulnerabilities, to evaluate the effectiveness of armed violence reduction programmes, and to disseminate knowledge of best practices. The Declaration calls upon its members to achieve measurable reductions in the global burden of armed violence and tangible improvements in human security by 2015 and beyond.
The Secretariat of the Geneva Declaration is currently hosted at the Small Arms Survey, an independent Geneva-based research institution located at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. The Survey is the main partner in the research activities conducted in the Geneva Declaration (GD) process. The Secretariat provides support to the signatory countries and develops the activities of the GD process in collaboration with a Core Group of 15 countries and partner organizations, including the Bureau of Policy and Programme Support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the Global Alliance on Armed Violence (GAAV). GAAV is a coalition of non-governmental and other actors working to prevent and reduce armed violence worldwide through cooperation and collaboration, from the community level to global institutions and decision-makers.
The Global Burden of Armed Violence receives funding from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Federal Department of Foreign Affairs.
Further information about the Geneva Declaration, its activities, and its publications is available at www.genevadeclaration.org.
This report is based on research, conducted by the Small Arms Survey for the Geneva Declaration Secretariat, and does not necessarily indicate endorsement by any state.
Executive Summary
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- Global Burden of Armed Violence 2015
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Summary
In the years since the Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011 was published, different forms of violence, instability, and conflict have erupted in places such as the Central African Republic, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. Waves of criminal violence have continued to sweep across Honduras, Venezuela, and other parts of Latin America. Armed violence continues to claim lives, undermine the stability of states and communities, and threaten the achievement of sustainable human development.
This edition of the Global Burden of Armed Violence charts and analyses some of these developments while maintaining the ‘unified approach’ to armed violence introduced in the previous edition. By relying on data from a large variety of sources–including public health, law enforcement, and criminal justice authorities as well as independent observatories, human rights organizations, and international agencies–this approach allows for the monitoring of changes and trends in the levels of armed violence at the local, national, regional, and global levels. Its focus is broad enough to capture interpersonal, political, criminal, economic, and conflict violence–some of which regularly overlap and fuel each other.
This volume presents analysis of comprehensive data for the period 2007–12 as well as assessments of more recent trends and dynamics in lethal violence in both conflict and non-conflict settings. Thanks to marked improvements in the collection and reporting of disaggregated lethal violence data in many countries, its chapters are able to offer more robust and simultaneously more nuanced assessments of changes in various aspects of lethal violence over time, including the use of firearms and gender-based victimization. In proposing a new calculation method for estimating the global economic cost of homicide, this edition also takes a significant step towards quantifying the costs of armed violence.
In view of the post-2015 development framework negotiations, the report keeps in focus the negative impact of violence and insecurity on development and weighs the potential benefits of integrating a peace and security goal in the new development agenda.
CHAPTER THREE - Lethal Violence against Women and Girls
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Summary
On the verge of a post-2015 development framework, and in view of the 20th anniversary of the Beijing Platform for Action, the focus on ending violence against women is ever-present in policy and research agendas. The Council of Europe 2011 Istanbul Convention spells out the obligation to address and prevent violence against women and domestic violence, building on previous international instruments, such as the 1979 United Nations Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW). The last few years have also seen a convergence of the international agenda on women, peace, and security with that of small arms control, specifically through the adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 and the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) (Bastick and Valasek, 2014).
Yet as countries attempt to forge targeted programmes to tackle and reduce violence against women and girls, that violence remains widespread and enduring, with far-reaching consequences for individuals, families, and society at large. Despite the increased awareness, there is a persistent lack of data on the killing of women, whether inside or outside the home. The chronic absence of details on circumstances surrounding female homicides also makes it difficult to understand and tackle the phenomenon effectively. Moreover, the lack of standardized guidelines, categories, and definitions renders cross-country comparisons difficult.
This chapter provides an update on the findings presented in the 2011 edition of the Global Burden of Armed Violence (GBAV) by examining the figures and patterns of lethal violence against women globally and in selected cases. In highlighting the most recent and comprehensive data on female homicide available, it explores intimate partner femicides, conflict-related deaths and sexual violence, and firearm-related killings of women. The chapter finds that:
▪ On average, based on data available from 104 countries and territories, the GBAV estimates that 60,000 women and girls worldwide were killed violently every year, from 2007 to 2012. These deaths account for approximately 16 per cent of all intentional homicides committed globally.
[…]
CHAPTER ONE - Violence, Security, and the New Global Development Agenda
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The many and complex manifestations of contemporary armed violence have a wide array of negative–and occasionally positive–impacts on the development of states and societies, as well as on the well-being of communities. In recent years numerous studies have provided evidence of the linkages between security, violence, and development. In addition, various analyses have examined the regional, national, sub-national, and local effects of violence on development.
Although the evidence is often only partial, it highlights two important conclusions:
▪ that the effects of armed violence go well beyond the loss of life and physical injuries; and
▪ that the global costs and effects of armed violence are much greater in non-conflict than in conflict settings.
The effects–and costs–of armed violence on development include, but are not limited to, spending on public order and internal security (such as police personnel), expenditure on private security by businesses and individuals, and the burden associated with forcibly displaced persons. In 2013 alone, there were an estimated 51.2 million forcibly displaced persons worldwide–the highest figure since comprehensive recordkeeping began in 1989 (UNHCR, 2014). In economic terms, the welfare cost of collective and interpersonal violence is estimated to represent about 1.63 per cent of global GDP (Hoeffler and Fearon, 2014, p. iii)–or up to USD 1.4 trillion. This report estimates that the cost of homicide in 2010 alone reached USD 171 billion–roughly the equivalent of Finland's GDP that year (see Chapter Five). Even these estimates do not capture the impact of violence and insecurity in terms of pain and suffering, or the negative impact on people's behaviour and economic activities. In conflict situations, the destruction of physical capital and infrastructure–roads, buildings, clinics, schools–and loss of human capital–through displacement and migration–represent serious development costs. Even in non-conflict settings, where criminal or interpersonal violence does not cause widespread physical destruction:
it is important not to understate the threat to state capacity, the business environment, and social development that can be posed by chronically high levels of violence, organized crime, and the corruption that sometimes follows it (Soares, 2014, p. 3).
Global Burden of Armed Violence 2015
- Every Body Counts
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The 2015 edition of the Global Burden of Armed Violence provides a wealth of data relevant to security and the post-2015 sustainable development framework. It estimates that 508,000 people died violently - in both conflict and non-conflict settings - every year in 2007–12, down from 526,000 in 2004–09. This trend is visible in non-conflict settings, where the proportion of women and girls is also slightly reduced, from 17 to 16 per cent. Yet, the number of direct conflict deaths is on the rise: from 55,000 to 70,000 per year over the same periods. Firearms are used in close to half of all homicides committed and in almost one-third of direct conflict deaths. Nearly USD 2 trillion in global homicide-related economic losses could have been saved if the homicide rate in 2000–10 had been reduced to the lowest practically attainable levels - between 2 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population.
CHAPTER TWO - Lethal Violence Update
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In recent years, lethal violence has remained firmly in the headlines. In the aftermath of the Arab uprisings, for instance, violence erupted in Libya and Syria, with the latter experiencing particularly high levels of lethality ever since. Honduras, Mexico, and Venezuela have been exhibiting a high incidence of violent deaths in the face of ongoing gang and drug wars. In fact, some of the world's highest homicide rates are found in these countries. Volatility in the levels of violence in the Central African Republic, Egypt, and Ukraine serve as reminders that episodes of great lethality can be short-lived and concentrated. Meanwhile, in many other countries around the world, enduring trends hold the promise that levels of violence may continue to drop.
This chapter analyses changes in the distribution and intensity of lethal violence by comparing newly gathered data for the period 2007–12 with data for the period 2004–09, which formed the basis of research presented in the 2011 edition of the Global Burden of Armed Violence (GBAV) (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2011). Overall, global levels of lethal violence appear to be in decline; yet a closer look reveals that while most national homicide rates have been stable or decreasing over the long term, a few states have been experiencing volatile or increasing levels of violence.
Based on a detailed analysis of information in the GBAV 2014 database, this chapter presents lethal violence averages for the period 2007–12 and reviews changes in rates for the entire period for which data is available (2004–12). The chapter continues to use the ‘unified approach’ to lethal violence that was introduced in the previous edition of this report. The approach covers conflict, criminal, and interpersonal forms of violence and includes data from a large variety of sources on homicide, conflict, and other forms of violence.
In highlighting medium- and long-term changes in lethal violence as well as the most recent available figures on violent deaths, the chapter also draws attention to improvements in the collection of data. Indeed, the availability of more refined data allows for more accurate estimates and for the unpacking of patterns in lethal violence (see Box 2.2).
List of Illustrations
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Foreword
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A safe life, without fear, is one of the most basic aspirations of the human being. It meets the immediate need of not having to fear for one's own life and physical integrity, which is also a fundamental human right. Unfortunately, the fear of being killed, general human insecurity, as well as high tolls of human life are the widespread realities of armed violence in countries affected by conflict, but also in non-conflict situations.
The Global Burden of Armed Violence 2015 report provides new evidence on the trends, patterns, and dynamics of lethal violence, in a wide array of contexts–within and outside conflict-affected settings. The availability of more comprehensive and detailed national-level data on lethal violence facilitates enhanced analysis which enables sustainable, lasting, and effective policy-making by various stakeholders at the national, regional, and global level.
This publication testifies that, in many countries around the world, violence is decreasing. This positive development is certainly encouraging. However, the report also finds that, in some locations, armed violence is on the rise. For instance, despite the efforts put in place by several governments and by civil society, the Latin American and Caribbean regions endure very high levels of violence. Further, new conflicts have fed the death toll dramatically. War in Syria and the crises in Libya and Ukraine have fuelled an increase of about one-third in direct conflict deaths. Over three million people have died altogether as a result of lethal violence in the period 2007–12. Statistics show that these casualties are concentrated in few countries, but it is our shared responsibility to tackle the root causes of violence and insecurity.
The publishing of the Global Burden of Armed Violence represents the main research contribution to the measurement pillar of the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development whose goal is to analyse and address the linkages between violence, security, and sustainable development. Since 2006 Switzerland has provided continuous political support to this goal, in different arenas, including the current negotiations on the new development agenda.
CHAPTER FIVE - The Economic Cost of Homicide
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Homicide–‘injuries inflicted by another person with intent to injure or kill, by any means’ (WHO, n.d.)–places a heavy economic burden on societies that experience this form of violence. Family and friends suffer when a loved one is killed, but their community and society also pay the price. The impact of homicide is physical, social and psychological, and also economic, and its costs are both direct and indirect. As one journalist put it, ‘[t]he tab for taxpayers and society starts running as soon as a bullet strikes someone, from detectives on the street and trauma surgeons at the city's public hospital to months of rehab for victims and years of court proceedings for the accused’ (Jones and McCormick, 2013). This chapter calculates the direct costs of homicide by estimating the economic loss to society.
Attempts by policy-makers, practitioners, and scholars to establish evidence of the diverse impacts of violence in general, and of homicide in particular, cover a wide range of issues, such as loss of life and health (victims and victimization), the undermining of trust in institutions and security providers (perceptions and attitudes towards the justice system and its institutions), and the direct costs generated by different forms of violence. All of these form part of the social cost of homicide. Estimates of the direct costs of homicide represent the potential material benefits to the wider society of reducing this form of violence.
This chapter focuses on the economic loss to society of homicide and the benefits of reducing it, using two key concepts: ‘excess homicide’ and average life expectancy. The first refers to an ideal situation in which violence is rare and people can expect to live without the fear of meeting a violent death. Excess homicide is the difference between a ‘normal’ or ‘natural’ level of homicide (see Box 5.1) and the incidence of homicide observed in reality. By comparing average life expectancy in 105 countries for which age and sex-disaggregated data is available, with the life expectancy these countries would have had in the absence of excess homicide, it is possible to estimate how many more months on average people would have lived in a context of a ‘normal’ level of homicide.
Acknowledgements
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Frontmatter
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CHAPTER FOUR - Unpacking Lethal Violence
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This chapter examines how disaggregated data on lethal violence can serve to inform effective evidence-based policy-making to prevent and reduce armed violence. In addition to providing quantitative information, this type of data can provide insight into qualitative factors such as the socio-economic characteristics of victims and offenders, locations, motives, methods and weapons used, and circumstances leading to a lethal outcome. Moreover, it allows for the generation of diagnostics, the identification of targets for interventions, and assessments of programme efficiency. Yet such data-based processes represent only one of the two complementary components that enable effective policy-making. The other component is political will–not only to promote the collection and processing of data and its public dissemination, but also to make use of evidence to develop and implement policies and programmes.
The past few years have witnessed a significant increase in the availability of systematically disaggregated data on lethal violence. This trend is clearly reflected in successive editions of the Global Burden of Armed Violence (GBAV): while the 2008 edition offers only broad regional estimates based on limited data, the 2011 edition is able to produce a global overview at the national level (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2008; 2011; see Box 2.2). By the latter edition, more countries were making relevant information available, encouraged not only by advances in data collection technology, but also by an increased awareness of the importance of sharing data on crime and violence in the context of monitoring trends and measuring the impact of crime and violence prevention policies.
Like the 2011 GBAV, this volume takes a ‘unified approach’ to armed violence, meaning that it considers both conflict and non-conflict settings or, put differently, that it covers all conflict, criminal, and interpersonal forms of lethal violence (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2011, pp. 11–42). While data from conflict situations largely documents casualties, data from non-conflict environments is generally focused on homicides, as recorded by law enforcement, criminal justice systems, and public health authorities.
Contents
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