The Parties to this Convention,

Acknowledging that change in the Earth's climate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind,

Concerned that human activities have been substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, that these increases enhance the natural greenhouse effect, and that this will result on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and may adversely affect natural ecosystems and humankind,

Noting that the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs,

Aware of the role and importance in terrestrial and marine ecosystems of sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases,

Noting that there are many uncertainties in predictions of climate change, particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns thereof,

Acknowledging that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and economic conditions,

Recalling the pertinent provisions of the Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, adopted at Stockholm on 16 June 1972,

The Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed by 154 heads of State and governments at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is a path-breaking document. It represents one of the first instances in which national governments have signalled their intention to control widespread and economically important activities at such a scale in order to reduce a well-documented but incompletely understood set of risks to the global environment. The treaty is likely to be an important model for future international agreements in many areas.

The negotiations that led to the signing of this Convention were remarkably brief and have been generally unmarred by the traditional, partisan attacks which have disrupted many UN negotiations in the past. This pattern of success on such a complex issue suggests that the climate negotiations may offer some significant lessons for both those who seek to make further progress in reducing the risks of rapid climate change and those who are now designing and implementing international environmental negotiations on other issues.

This book offers fascinating insights into the structure and dynamics of the climate negotiations. It reflects the perceptions of central participants in these negotiations, individuals who were participants in the key decisions, framed the most important initiatives, and represented the pivotal constituencies in the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC). The considered reflections they offer here represent a series of diverse visions of a world attempting to anticipate and deal with a potentially far reaching agent of long-term environmental change.

Introduction

Farmers, villagers, and city-dwellers worldwide have recently begun to notice what atmospheric scientists have known for decades: the Earth's climate is changing. During the last five years, extreme and often catastrophic weather events have captured the attention of scientists, public citizens, politicians, and the media. Twice in five years, the “hundred-year” windstorm blew across the United Kingdom, overturning historic structures, uprooting centuries-old trees, and reshaping the countryside. In the same period, the United States, France, and parts of Africa were racked by droughts of historical proportions. Major floods swept across India, Bangladesh, the Sudan, and China, leaving thousands homeless and destitute. Hot spells killed hundreds in Greece. Fierce storms, as harsh as the “Hurricane of the Century,” twice battered the coasts of the United States, thrashed vulnerable islands in the Caribbean, and wreaked havoc on the Pacific Island of Guam.

During earlier times and in most cultures, events like these would have been viewed with cosmic significance. In the history of ancient China, for example, the confluence of natural disasters was interpreted as a divine message. A series of unusual and extreme weather events might signal the imminent end of an aging dynasty. It marked the disintegration of the old order, the emperor's loss of “the mandate of Heaven,” and the opportunity to establish a new regime.

In recent years, abrupt atmospheric changes have similarly captured public attention and influenced human affairs, reshaping the global politics of the environment.

The negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change involved a long and dramatic process. Many players took the stage by turn, but none appeared in all the scenes nor dominated the action throughout. There were many heroes and few villains.

By examining the action in this drama through the lenses of more than a dozen witnesses, we have learned how different the perceptions of a shared event can be. Drawn from their personal recollections in late 1992 and 1993, each reconstruction of the events stands on its own for the reader to judge. Each participant sees the action in terms of how it affects the interests and institutions that he or she knows best. Each vision of the events is colored by the background and experience of the observer, which filters out some elements of the picture that may be readily seen by others. Studying this process can be instructive for future international negotiations.

Nearly all observers agree on certain factors that led to the success of the climate negotiations. We begin this chapter with an overview of some of those areas of agreement, then highlight a number of unresolved issues that must be addressed in the second phase of the climate negotiations. Based on the recollections presented in this volume, the third section of this chapter summarizes a set of proposals for shaping the structure of the next phase of negotiations.

Human activities are changing the composition of our atmosphere at an unprecedented rate. If current trends continue, our planet could face a climatic shock unlike anything experienced in the last 10,000 years. It would not be felt as an immediate blow, that is a shift from status quo to catastrophe. The climate cannot disappear like an endangered species. Nor can it explode like a runaway reactor. Nevertheless, the risks of rapid climate change — rapid by geologic and climatic standards — are rising rapidly in our time. In this context, “shock” is an appropriate term. It describes the impact that the resulting set of changes may have on human economies and natural ecosystems.

Climate change is not a new phenomenon. Earth's climate has changed before, many times in the last two billion years. But something important is different this time.

A Change is in the Air

The woman gathering fuelwood in the Sudan senses a difference. She survived 2 extremely dry years and then, in August 1988, saw a year's rain fall in three days. The British coal miner suspects that something is askew in the picture outside his kitchen window. He was shocked as he saw the “100-year storm” blow across Britain twice in 5 years, tearing up trees that he had regarded as a permanent feature of the landscape. The American, Australian, and African farmers who have seen deep droughts and big rains crush their crops again and again in the last 5 years, can feel a difference in the soil and smell a difference in the air.