90 results
COVID-19 passenger screening to reduce travel risk and translocation of disease
- Lindsay L. Waite, Ahmad Nahhas, Jan Irvahn, Grace Garden, Caroline M. Kerfonta, Elizabeth Killelea, William Ferng, Joshua J. Cummins, Rebecca Mereness, Thomas Austin, Stephen Jones, Nels Olson, Mark Wilson, Benson Isaac, Craig A. Pepper, Iain S. Koolhof, Jason Armstrong
-
- Journal:
- Epidemiology & Infection / Volume 152 / 2024
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 08 February 2024, e36
-
- Article
-
- You have access Access
- Open access
- HTML
- Export citation
-
Aviation passenger screening has been used worldwide to mitigate the translocation risk of SARS-CoV-2. We present a model that evaluates factors in screening strategies used in air travel and assess their relative sensitivity and importance in identifying infectious passengers. We use adapted Monte Carlo simulations to produce hypothetical disease timelines for the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 for travelling passengers. Screening strategy factors assessed include having one or two RT-PCR and/or antigen tests prior to departure and/or post-arrival, and quarantine length and compliance upon arrival. One or more post-arrival tests and high quarantine compliance were the most important factors in reducing pathogen translocation. Screening that combines quarantine and post-arrival testing can shorten the length of quarantine for travelers, and variability and mean testing sensitivity in post-arrival RT-PCR and antigen tests decrease and increase with the greater time between the first and second post-arrival test, respectively. This study provides insight into the role various screening strategy factors have in preventing the translocation of infectious diseases and a flexible framework adaptable to other existing or emerging diseases. Such findings may help in public health policy and decision-making in present and future evidence-based practices for passenger screening and pandemic preparedness.
Near-source passive sampling for monitoring viral outbreaks within a university residential setting
- Kata Farkas, Jessica L. Kevill, Latifah Adwan, Alvaro Garcia-Delgado, Rande Dzay, Jasmine M. S. Grimsley, Kathryn Lambert-Slosarska, Matthew J. Wade, Rachel C. Williams, Javier Martin, Mark Drakesmith, Jiao Song, Victoria McClure, Davey L. Jones
-
- Journal:
- Epidemiology & Infection / Volume 152 / 2024
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 08 February 2024, e31
-
- Article
-
- You have access Access
- Open access
- HTML
- Export citation
-
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has proven to be a powerful tool for the population-level monitoring of pathogens, particularly severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For assessment, several wastewater sampling regimes and methods of viral concentration have been investigated, mainly targeting SARS-CoV-2. However, the use of passive samplers in near-source environments for a range of viruses in wastewater is still under-investigated. To address this, near-source passive samples were taken at four locations targeting student hall of residence. These were chosen as an exemplar due to their high population density and perceived risk of disease transmission. Viruses investigated were SARS-CoV-2 and its variants of concern (VOCs), influenza viruses, and enteroviruses. Sampling was conducted either in the morning, where passive samplers were in place overnight (17 h) and during the day, with exposure of 7 h. We demonstrated the usefulness of near-source passive sampling for the detection of VOCs using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and next-generation sequencing (NGS). Furthermore, several outbreaks of influenza A and sporadic outbreaks of enteroviruses (some associated with enterovirus D68 and coxsackieviruses) were identified among the resident student population, providing evidence of the usefulness of near-source, in-sewer sampling for monitoring the health of high population density communities.
Associations of alcohol and cannabis use with change in posttraumatic stress disorder and depression symptoms over time in recently trauma-exposed individuals
- Cecilia A. Hinojosa, Amanda Liew, Xinming An, Jennifer S. Stevens, Archana Basu, Sanne J. H. van Rooij, Stacey L. House, Francesca L. Beaudoin, Donglin Zeng, Thomas C. Neylan, Gari D. Clifford, Tanja Jovanovic, Sarah D. Linnstaedt, Laura T. Germine, Scott L. Rauch, John P. Haran, Alan B. Storrow, Christopher Lewandowski, Paul I. Musey, Phyllis L. Hendry, Sophia Sheikh, Christopher W. Jones, Brittany E. Punches, Michael C. Kurz, Robert A. Swor, Lauren A. Hudak, Jose L. Pascual, Mark J. Seamon, Elizabeth M. Datner, Anna M. Chang, Claire Pearson, David A. Peak, Roland C. Merchant, Robert M. Domeier, Niels K. Rathlev, Paulina Sergot, Leon D. Sanchez, Steven E. Bruce, Mark W. Miller, Robert H. Pietrzak, Jutta Joormann, Diego A. Pizzagalli, John F. Sheridan, Steven E. Harte, James M. Elliott, Ronald C. Kessler, Karestan C. Koenen, Samuel A. McLean, Kerry J. Ressler, Negar Fani
-
- Journal:
- Psychological Medicine / Volume 54 / Issue 2 / January 2024
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 13 June 2023, pp. 338-349
-
- Article
-
- You have access Access
- Open access
- HTML
- Export citation
-
Background
Several hypotheses may explain the association between substance use, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and depression. However, few studies have utilized a large multisite dataset to understand this complex relationship. Our study assessed the relationship between alcohol and cannabis use trajectories and PTSD and depression symptoms across 3 months in recently trauma-exposed civilians.
MethodsIn total, 1618 (1037 female) participants provided self-report data on past 30-day alcohol and cannabis use and PTSD and depression symptoms during their emergency department (baseline) visit. We reassessed participant's substance use and clinical symptoms 2, 8, and 12 weeks posttrauma. Latent class mixture modeling determined alcohol and cannabis use trajectories in the sample. Changes in PTSD and depression symptoms were assessed across alcohol and cannabis use trajectories via a mixed-model repeated-measures analysis of variance.
ResultsThree trajectory classes (low, high, increasing use) provided the best model fit for alcohol and cannabis use. The low alcohol use class exhibited lower PTSD symptoms at baseline than the high use class; the low cannabis use class exhibited lower PTSD and depression symptoms at baseline than the high and increasing use classes; these symptoms greatly increased at week 8 and declined at week 12. Participants who already use alcohol and cannabis exhibited greater PTSD and depression symptoms at baseline that increased at week 8 with a decrease in symptoms at week 12.
ConclusionsOur findings suggest that alcohol and cannabis use trajectories are associated with the intensity of posttrauma psychopathology. These findings could potentially inform the timing of therapeutic strategies.
Processing of social and monetary rewards in autism spectrum disorders
- Sarah Baumeister, Carolin Moessnang, Nico Bast, Sarah Hohmann, Pascal Aggensteiner, Anna Kaiser, Julian Tillmann, David Goyard, Tony Charman, Sara Ambrosino, Simon Baron-Cohen, Christian Beckmann, Sven Bölte, Thomas Bourgeron, Annika Rausch, Daisy Crawley, Flavio Dell'Acqua, Guillaume Dumas, Sarah Durston, Christine Ecker, Dorothea L. Floris, Vincent Frouin, Hannah Hayward, Rosemary Holt, Mark H. Johnson, Emily J. H. Jones, Meng-Chuan Lai, Michael V. Lombardo, Luke Mason, Bethany Oakley, Marianne Oldehinkel, Antonio M. Persico, Antonia San José Cáceres, Thomas Wolfers, Eva Loth, Declan G. M. Murphy, Jan K. Buitelaar, Heike Tost, Andreas Meyer-Lindenberg, Tobias Banaschewski, Daniel Brandeis, the EU-AIMS LEAP Group
-
- Journal:
- The British Journal of Psychiatry / Volume 222 / Issue 3 / March 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 26 January 2023, pp. 100-111
- Print publication:
- March 2023
-
- Article
-
- You have access Access
- Open access
- HTML
- Export citation
-
Background
Reward processing has been proposed to underpin the atypical social feature of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, previous neuroimaging studies have yielded inconsistent results regarding the specificity of atypicalities for social reward processing in ASD.
AimsUtilising a large sample, we aimed to assess reward processing in response to reward type (social, monetary) and reward phase (anticipation, delivery) in ASD.
MethodFunctional magnetic resonance imaging during social and monetary reward anticipation and delivery was performed in 212 individuals with ASD (7.6–30.6 years of age) and 181 typically developing participants (7.6–30.8 years of age).
ResultsAcross social and monetary reward anticipation, whole-brain analyses showed hypoactivation of the right ventral striatum in participants with ASD compared with typically developing participants. Further, region of interest analysis across both reward types yielded ASD-related hypoactivation in both the left and right ventral striatum. Across delivery of social and monetary reward, hyperactivation of the ventral striatum in individuals with ASD did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. Dimensional analyses of autism and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) scores were not significant. In categorical analyses, post hoc comparisons showed that ASD effects were most pronounced in participants with ASD without co-occurring ADHD.
ConclusionsOur results do not support current theories linking atypical social interaction in ASD to specific alterations in social reward processing. Instead, they point towards a generalised hypoactivity of ventral striatum in ASD during anticipation of both social and monetary rewards. We suggest this indicates attenuated reward seeking in ASD independent of social content and that elevated ADHD symptoms may attenuate altered reward seeking in ASD.
Characterisation of age and polarity at onset in bipolar disorder
- Janos L. Kalman, Loes M. Olde Loohuis, Annabel Vreeker, Andrew McQuillin, Eli A. Stahl, Douglas Ruderfer, Maria Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Georgia Panagiotaropoulou, Stephan Ripke, Tim B. Bigdeli, Frederike Stein, Tina Meller, Susanne Meinert, Helena Pelin, Fabian Streit, Sergi Papiol, Mark J. Adams, Rolf Adolfsson, Kristina Adorjan, Ingrid Agartz, Sofie R. Aminoff, Heike Anderson-Schmidt, Ole A. Andreassen, Raffaella Ardau, Jean-Michel Aubry, Ceylan Balaban, Nicholas Bass, Bernhard T. Baune, Frank Bellivier, Antoni Benabarre, Susanne Bengesser, Wade H Berrettini, Marco P. Boks, Evelyn J. Bromet, Katharina Brosch, Monika Budde, William Byerley, Pablo Cervantes, Catina Chillotti, Sven Cichon, Scott R. Clark, Ashley L. Comes, Aiden Corvin, William Coryell, Nick Craddock, David W. Craig, Paul E. Croarkin, Cristiana Cruceanu, Piotr M. Czerski, Nina Dalkner, Udo Dannlowski, Franziska Degenhardt, Maria Del Zompo, J. Raymond DePaulo, Srdjan Djurovic, Howard J. Edenberg, Mariam Al Eissa, Torbjørn Elvsåshagen, Bruno Etain, Ayman H. Fanous, Frederike Fellendorf, Alessia Fiorentino, Andreas J. Forstner, Mark A. Frye, Janice M. Fullerton, Katrin Gade, Julie Garnham, Elliot Gershon, Michael Gill, Fernando S. Goes, Katherine Gordon-Smith, Paul Grof, Jose Guzman-Parra, Tim Hahn, Roland Hasler, Maria Heilbronner, Urs Heilbronner, Stephane Jamain, Esther Jimenez, Ian Jones, Lisa Jones, Lina Jonsson, Rene S. Kahn, John R. Kelsoe, James L. Kennedy, Tilo Kircher, George Kirov, Sarah Kittel-Schneider, Farah Klöhn-Saghatolislam, James A. Knowles, Thorsten M. Kranz, Trine Vik Lagerberg, Mikael Landen, William B. Lawson, Marion Leboyer, Qingqin S. Li, Mario Maj, Dolores Malaspina, Mirko Manchia, Fermin Mayoral, Susan L. McElroy, Melvin G. McInnis, Andrew M. McIntosh, Helena Medeiros, Ingrid Melle, Vihra Milanova, Philip B. Mitchell, Palmiero Monteleone, Alessio Maria Monteleone, Markus M. Nöthen, Tomas Novak, John I. Nurnberger, Niamh O'Brien, Kevin S. O'Connell, Claire O'Donovan, Michael C. O'Donovan, Nils Opel, Abigail Ortiz, Michael J. Owen, Erik Pålsson, Carlos Pato, Michele T. Pato, Joanna Pawlak, Julia-Katharina Pfarr, Claudia Pisanu, James B. Potash, Mark H Rapaport, Daniela Reich-Erkelenz, Andreas Reif, Eva Reininghaus, Jonathan Repple, Hélène Richard-Lepouriel, Marcella Rietschel, Kai Ringwald, Gloria Roberts, Guy Rouleau, Sabrina Schaupp, William A Scheftner, Simon Schmitt, Peter R. Schofield, K. Oliver Schubert, Eva C. Schulte, Barbara Schweizer, Fanny Senner, Giovanni Severino, Sally Sharp, Claire Slaney, Olav B. Smeland, Janet L. Sobell, Alessio Squassina, Pavla Stopkova, John Strauss, Alfonso Tortorella, Gustavo Turecki, Joanna Twarowska-Hauser, Marin Veldic, Eduard Vieta, John B. Vincent, Wei Xu, Clement C. Zai, Peter P. Zandi, Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) Bipolar Disorder Working Group, International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen), Colombia-US Cross Disorder Collaboration in Psychiatric Genetics, Arianna Di Florio, Jordan W. Smoller, Joanna M. Biernacka, Francis J. McMahon, Martin Alda, Bertram Müller-Myhsok, Nikolaos Koutsouleris, Peter Falkai, Nelson B. Freimer, Till F.M. Andlauer, Thomas G. Schulze, Roel A. Ophoff
-
- Journal:
- The British Journal of Psychiatry / Volume 219 / Issue 6 / December 2021
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 25 August 2021, pp. 659-669
- Print publication:
- December 2021
-
- Article
-
- You have access Access
- Open access
- HTML
- Export citation
-
Background
Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools.
AimsTo examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics.
MethodGenome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts.
ResultsEarlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (β = −0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (β = −0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO.
ConclusionsAAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.
Appendix: selected examples of city visions
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 233-238
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
In this appendix we provide a list of selected city visions – the list is not exhaustive. The list includes existing cities but not new cities. We have excluded more specialist visions focusing on a single element, such as those relating to smart cities, and we have also excluded what may be broadly defined as traditional ‘masterplans’. We have included several examples of strategic city-wide or city regional plans where the view taken is long term, large-scale and visionary and/or may involve some degree of consultation with or participation by key stakeholders. The majority of the visions are local government-led, although in some instances, academia, citizens and business have played an important role in helping to shape or lead the vision.
5 - Future narratives for the city: smart and sustainable?
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 79-100
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
Introduction
The intense, politicised and highly divisive debate over whether the UK should leave membership of the European Union between 2016 and 2020 (so-called Brexit) highlighted the fact that those offering competing visions of the future can become locked in an intractable battle. Similarly, the devastating COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a great deal of soul-searching about creating a vision of what sort of place people want the UK to be in the future. In the world of cities and urban studies, we have seen a similarly important, but perhaps less brutal, battle of ideas, thoughts and visions as conceptualisations of the ideal city have been promoted in literature, art, academic discourse and policy and practice throughout history. This debate and discourse also have profound effects for the way we see and experience cities in the UK and elsewhere now, and in the future.
The two main strands of thinking, or narratives, that have emerged during the late 20th and early 21st centuries, and which build on previous historic principles, debates and discourses about cities, have been focused on sustainable cities and smart cities – both of which have been underpinned and strengthened by the emergence of international networks that promote dialogue and learning about the implementation of such cities. These two ‘signifiers’ or ‘leitmotifs’ have been highlighted and promoted not only by national governments, but also by city and municipal governments seeking to compete for investment and globalised capital.
In this chapter, we will begin by discussing and analysing how cities can be typified and conceptualised in terms of their ‘ideal’ characteristics. To do this, we will examine how new theories, such as actor network theory (ANT) and ‘urban assemblage’ theory, can help inform our thinking about cities. We then discuss and critically review the emergence of sustainable cities and smart cities before looking at the concept of ‘smart and sustainable cities’, and why visions lie at the heart of urban futures. Ultimately, as we will argue, if we are to re-imagine the future of our cities and create a solid basis for exploring and developing urban futures thinking, part of that process requires the co-production of coherent, participatory city visions that recognise the innate value of a place's character, and the needs of the people who live, work and play there.
Index
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 283-290
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
Contents
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp iii-iii
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
10 - Visioning and planning the city in an urban age: a reality check
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 201-216
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
For I dipped into the future, far as human eye could see, Saw the Vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be.
Alfred Lord Tennyson, 1809–92, Locksley HallIntroduction
In this chapter, we delve further into the idea of visioning and planning in cities. The urban has always been seen as a complex system of systems, a thriving and living organism, which constantly moves and heaves. In more modern parlance, it may also be seen as a machine of inter-related parts, each element of which works in tandem with others. Cities have developed over millennia and scholars have been continuously fascinated with this urban movement, as layers of change and development have transformed both the landscape and life within the urban arena. Cities today comprise a palimpsest, layer upon layer of history and intervention, of progress and growth, and of struggle and conflict.
Solutions to the challenges that cities face today might seem out of reach, but in reality societies and governments have always been faced with the need to respond. Having some sense of future direction, or trajectory of travel, is a significant task for any area faced with more immediate concerns. Visions are useful and valuable for their ability to contribute to democratic debate about appropriate directions forward; visions may have been much more directorial in past times than is called for today, but they do allow us to make sense of where we are and where we would like to be, even if the route to that destination is uncertain. As both city governments and urban planning powers have diminished, at least in the global north, and branded as unfashionable for the 21st century, questions remain about the usefulness of city visioning for planning, in a context where a multitude of organisations, sometimes in harmony but often fragmented, shape and reshape the city.
This will chapter examine the changing shape of cities, their complexity and transformational changes. It will set out the case for the development of city visions and for urban planning to be seen and utilised as a stock of knowledge and methods that can assist cities in both assessing and managing present-day challenges and carving out paths for the future.
11 - Conclusions: facing the urban future to 2050 and beyond
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 217-232
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.
Marcus Aurelius, 2nd century AD, MeditationsIntroduction
Throughout this book, our argument has been that we need to bring four main stakeholder groups together in cities – that is, the public (or civil society), academia, local government and business – to develop participatory-based, long-term city visions. Although not predictive, these city visions can help us to plan, prepare and manage a transition to a sustainable future for our cities. Developed using a range of city foresight methods, and recognising the value of a parallel ‘science of cities’ approach and the inherent complexity of cities, these visions can help to create support and mobilise action to tackle the pressing issues of climate change, resource depletion, health and wellbeing concerns, socioeconomic disparities and other major urban challenges at a crucially important time in humanity's history. They present us with a way of looking long term, beyond short-term crises and politics, to 2050 as part of an overall framework we have called urban futures (see Chapter 1).
As we were writing this book, the COVID-19 crisis was having a huge impact on cities across the world. Directly through the substantial number of deaths, and indirectly through social distancing and restrictions on work, industry, services, education and travel, COVID-19 has had far-reaching repercussions not only on people's lives, but also on the economic activities of countries and cities globally. Because we live in an interconnected and globalised world, it is not surprising that the crisis is having substantial impacts on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and health and welfare systems, with people in poverty living in the world's urban areas suffering disproportionately (UN-Habitat, 2020).
But crises provide opportunities as well as risks, and there is an argument for suggesting that the COVID-19 crisis, and the continuing impact of climate change, provide us with a chance to think longer term beyond the present, and reimagine the way in which cities should be like further into the future to 2030, 2050 and beyond. In the rest of this chapter, therefore, we look at three main themes that have emerged from the book: (a) city foresight, transitions theory and city visions; (b) urban planning and governance; and (c) the future for cities.
8 - Shaping the future: city vision case studies
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 153-180
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
Vision is the art of seeing what is invisible to others.
Jonathan Swift, 1667–1745Introduction
Visions provide us with the means to see the critical issues and challenges that lie ahead, to help fight complacency and to see how things might be different. As Louis Albrechts (2010: 1123) wrote: ‘Visions provide actors with views of the future that can be shared: a clear sense of direction, a mobilisation of energy, and a sense of being engaged in something important’. This is important in the context of transformative change in cities and how we manage and plan for future change. However, visions need to be a shared view of the future and rely on participatory methods to underpin them.
In the last chapter, we saw how the process of city visioning (as part of city foresight) can help us to develop meaningful city visions. In this chapter, we look at some key outputs from these visioning processes. To do this we begin by tracing the evolution of city visions, and the distinctions we should draw between them, and masterplans. We also examine the evolution of city visions over time and look at some specific examples highlighting the linkages between the process of visioning and the development of strategic urban planning. Finally, we look at two very different examples of city visions where foresight has played a major role (Reading 2050 and Newcastle City Futures 2065), and examine what makes a good vision and the opportunities and challenges surrounding the development of city visions.
From masterplans to city visions
As we saw earlier in this book, urban planning's roots lie in a strong tradition of utopic, visionary thinkers who were focused on imagining the ideal city. Even before these thinkers, there had been periods in history when real-world cities had been reimagined – for example Christopher Wren and John Nash in London during the 16th and 17th centuries. These early seeds of thinking spawned the development of large-scale plans, or grand designs, in the 19th and early 20th centuries for large cities around the world, including those for Paris (1853) by Georges-Eugène Haussmann, Barcelona (1855) by Illdefons Cerdà, Chicago (1909) by Daniel Burnham and Vienna (1911) by Otto Koloman Wagner.
Preface
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp ix-x
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
The world that we live in is deeply urbanised and this is set to continue to grow over the long term to 2050 and beyond. Cities provide rich and diverse hubs of economic activity and continue to act as magnets for people and industry, yet they also harbour wealth and health inequalities, deplete valuable resources and contribute to continuing climate change. There have been many books written about cities, in fiction and non-fiction, and cities have permeated art and film, but there have been few, if any, previous books that have focused on the practical application and development of ‘city visions’, or the shared perspectives that can be produced to imagine a city's future.
Part of the inspiration for writing this book came from our strong desire to provide a counterpoint to the argument that ‘predictive’ city visions are impossible because: (a) of the complexity of cities; and (b) we ourselves, as part of that inherent complexity, are a crucial and unpredictable part of their future creation and design. But, in our view, it is now more important than ever that we look long term and that people help to decide what sort of future they want for individual cities across the world. This is not a prediction of the future and nor is it a generic vision designed by planning visionaries such as Ebenezer Howard and Patrick Geddes, inspirational though they were. What we call ‘urban futures’ is based on the notion that we need a practical and formal framework to imagine what our cities could and should be like to live, work and play in, in the long term (beyond 20 years); how they will operate; what infrastructure is needed; and how governance systems will be required to help shape them and ensure their resilience. To do this, we need to develop city visions that are based on participatory city foresight methods (or the science of thinking about the future of cities); and, as we also argue, we need to draw on ‘transitions theory,’ which emphasises how important city visioning is to the process of managing and planning for a sustainable (and smart) future for cities. In this book we therefore draw on our UK-based research (particularly in Reading and Newcastle) but also highlight international examples of city foresight and city visions.
6 - Theoretical approaches to urban futures
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 101-122
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
Introduction
The rapid growth of climate emergency declarations in cities across the world in the latter 2010s and early 2020s throws into focus the major structural and institutional changes that will be required in our urban areas to tackle the impacts of climate change. Scientific evidence tells us that, to keep global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5°C, cities have to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century (Bazaz et al, 2018). This has potentially transformative impacts not only for city economies and people's lifestyles, but also for the multi-level governance structures we see currently at play at national and subnational levels in jurisdictions across the world. As Lord Stern wrote:
We are at a unique moment in human history. The policies and investments made in the next two decades will determine the quality of life on this planet for generations to come. We need cities with net-zero emissions by midcentury to have a reasonable chance of staying close to 1.5°C. Such a transition will need big investments, and quickly, but they are very productive, attractive investments. (CUT, 2019: 4)
The risks of climate change present a clear and present danger to cities. For example, much of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal areas susceptible to flooding by sea-level rise; as a measure of the scale of the risks involved, in Europe 70 per cent of the largest cities have areas that are fewer than 10 metres above sea level, and recent work has shown that people living in poverty, older people and people who are economically vulnerable are likely to be impacted the most by climate change (Kamal-Chaoui and Robert, 2009; Matsumoto et al, 2019). Climate change, therefore, can entrench and deepen systemic and structural inequalities in cities.
Add into the mix the continuing socioeconomic pressures in cities caused by migration, population growth and pandemics, and there is a potent cocktail of urban challenges to be addressed (see Chapter 2). Yet cities also offer great potential for tackling climate change and other environmental issues. For example, it has been calculated that deploying low-carbon measures in cities could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from urban buildings, materials, transport and waste by nearly 90 per cent by 2050. These measures would have a net present value of US$23.9 trillion – greater than the biggest economy in the world, the United States (CUT, 2019).
2 - Cities and integrated urban challenges
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 17-40
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
What is the city but the people?
William Shakespeare, CoriolanusIntroduction
Although Shakespeare seems to focus on the people in a city, Jane Jacobs emphasised the city's overall complexity (Jacobs, 1961: 376): ‘No single element in a city is, in truth, the kingpin or the key. The mixture itself is kingpin, and its mutual support is the order’. But both of these quotations invite us to think about the city in different ways: not only as a place influenced and shaped by people and the myriad of relationships and networks they have, but also as a complex system of different but interlinked elements. Both in their different ways implicitly and explicitly acknowledge the complex nature of cities. However, the quotations also invite us to reflect on what we mean by the term ‘city’. This is important when we consider that many commentators write about an ‘urban age’ (Brenner and Schmid, 2014); but what do we really mean when we talk about a city?
In this chapter, we will first explore how cities may be formally defined (spatially and temporally, for example), and what cities represent in terms of their inherent characteristics. Is a city a process or a set of processes, for example, or an object, or a system? Answering these questions is vital if we are to understand how we can move to a more sustainable future. In doing this, we will also explore what is meant by urbanisation, and how past, present and future urban growth has shaped, and will shape, our towns and cities globally, and closer to home in the UK. For example, will London continue to dominate the city landscape in the UK as the national population continues to expand?
The ‘urban paradox’ of the parallel benefits and challenges of living in cities also raises important questions. Although cities can act as economic engines for growth and attractors for skilled workers, what are the important environmental, social and economic impacts of urban living in an urban age? Moreover, should these challenges be treated in an isolated or an integrated way? We will explore and examine the overall nature and characteristics of these challenges, and the extent to which they interlink and cross-cut the city and cityregion scale and beyond.
Notes
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 239-240
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
References
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 241-282
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
Frontmatter
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp i-ii
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
4 - Planning and governing the future city
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 65-78
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
Introduction
We have seen through the course of the previous chapters of this book that the story of creating urban futures, from the development of visions to the employment of urban and regional planning as governmental intent and action, has been one of ebbs and flows. The case for initiating any long-term urban vision for a city, whatever its size and form, and at whatever moment in history it happens to be situated, has necessitated a political programme to deal with major complexities and externalities associated with the growth or decline of places – whether this has involved, for example, attempting to stymie rapid uncontrollable urbanisation, rolling out better and decent housing for those in need of shelter, providing adequate infrastructure to meet people's mobility needs and energy consumption, committing a city to green growth and sustainable practices, or ensuring good standards of health provision to address an urban society's basic human needs and survival. These issues, common as they are across time and space as a hallmark of urban living and urban trends, manifest themselves in different ways in different places. But the ways in which these issues are recognised, analysed and addressed within cities and nations have been the identifiable features of urban planning movements, enacted as functions of city governments.
The task of utilising urban and regional planning to examine all the changing aspects of urban life, by analysing problematic trends and trajectories and then ensuring a political and resourced programme of action to remedy them, is never a straightforward or easy process. Discussion of, and commitment to, an appropriate way forward for a city and region are heavily dependent on agreement on the validity of the intelligence and evidence base, on the various options available to think about the future, and on the political, economic, regulatory, social and environmental contexts for decision-making. As the task of planning proceeds even within a single nation, the world is forever changing, thus rendering agreed action plans potentially outdated by the time they are implemented. Ensuring that a city's political commitments are ‘future-proof ‘ is just one of the many requirements of shaping urban futures.
3 - Reimagining the city: views of the future from the past and present
- Timothy J. Dixon, University of Reading, Mark Tewdwr-Jones
-
- Book:
- Urban Futures
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 21 December 2021
- Print publication:
- 19 May 2021, pp 41-64
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
A map of the world that does not include Utopia is not worth even glancing at, for it leaves out the one country at which Humanity is always landing. And when Humanity lands there, it looks out, and, seeing a better country, sets sail. Progress is the realisation of Utopias.
Oscar Wilde, 1891Introduction
Humankind's capacity to envision the future and to be able to imagine alternative futures is a relatively recent development, relating directly to the age of enlightenment (Gidley, 2017a). Thus, ‘utopian’ thinking, founded on the work of writers such as Plato and Thomas More, was transformed during this period into ‘euchronia’ (or a time of perfect social, technological and ecological harmony), which enabled different places in different times to be imagined. The city has often been at the heart of much of the utopian and euchronian literature, film and related art that has emerged since then. As Clarke suggested: ‘For at least the past five centuries … the make-believe city has been the benchmark of all imaginary societies’ (Clarke, 1992: 702). Moreover, the resultant ‘urban imaginaries’ that have been developed have been founded on both utopic (‘good’) and dystopic (‘bad’) futures. In turn, this body of work has helped shape and influence the nature of urban design and urban planning.
In this chapter, we will first examine what is meant by the term ‘vision’ and how writers such as Plato and Thomas More have influenced our thinking about the future, through their utopian ideas. We then compare and contrast utopian and dystopian views of the future, drawing on literature and film (and related art) to examine questions such as what sort of ‘urban imaginaries’ emerge from literature and film, and do these imaginaries shape the way our cities look and feel today (and will do in the future), and vice versa? Finally, we look at the way in which utopian thinking has influenced and shaped urban planning through the visionary thinking of early thinkers such as Geddes, Howard and others.
It is important to note, however, that the chapter is not intended to be a comprehensive or exhaustive inventory or critique of all futuresbased thinkers or writers – for this the reader is referred in the general literature to authors such as Claeys (2010, 2011, 2017) and in the planning and urban design literature to other writers such as Eaton (2001), Rosenau (2010) and Hall (2014).