Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-dfsvx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T08:52:53.144Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Strategic Violence during Democratization: Evidence from Myanmar

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 March 2019

Darin Christensen Open the ORCID record for Darin Christensen [Opens in a new window] ,
Mai Nguyen  and
Renard Sexton
Darin Christensen
Affiliation:
University of California, Los Angeles email: darinc@luskin.ucla.edu
Mai Nguyen
Affiliation:
Institute for Quantitative Theory and Methods, Emory University email: mai.truc.nguyen@emory.edu
Renard Sexton
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Emory University email: sexton@emory.edu
Get access

Abstract

Democratic transitions are often followed by conflict. This article explores one explanation: the military’s strategic use of violence to retain control of economically valuable regions. The authors uncover this dynamic in Myanmar, a country transitioning from four decades of military rule. Fearing that the new civilian government will assert authority over jade mining, the military initiated violence in mining townships. Using geocoded data on conflict and jade mines, the authors find evidence for this strategic use of violence. As Myanmar started to transition in 2011, conflicts instigated by the military in jademining areas sharply rose. The article also addresses alternative explanations, including a shift in the military’s strategy, colocation of mines and military headquarters, commodity prices, opposition to a controversial dam, and trends specific to Kachin State. With implications beyond Myanmar, the authors argue that outgoing generals can use instability to retain rents where plausible challengers to state authority provide a pretense for violence.

Keywords

democratizationmilitary regime transitionMyanmar jade miningnatural resourcessubnational conflict
Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 71 , Issue 2 , April 2019 , pp. 332 - 366
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James A.. 2005. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron, Ticchi, Davide, and Vindigni, Andrea. 2010. “A Theory of Military Dictatorships.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 1: 1–42. doi: 10.1257/mac.2.1.1.Google Scholar
Barany, Zoltan. 2016. “Armed Forces and Democratization in Myanmar: Why the US Military Should Engage the Tatmadaw.” Report. Washington, D.C.: Center for International and Strategic Studies. At https://www.csis.org/analysis/armed-forces-and-democratization-myanmar-why-us-military-should-engage-tatmadaw, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Brenner, David. 2015. “Ashes of Co-optation: From Armed Group Fragmentation to the Rebuilding of Popular Insurgency in Myanmar.” Conflict, Security & Development 15, no. 4: 337–58. doi: 10.1080/14678802.2015.1071974.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burbidge, John B., Magee, Lonnie, and Robb, A. Leslie. 1988. “Alternative Transformations to Handle Extreme Values of the Dependent Variable.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 83, no. 401: 123–27. doi: 10.2307/2288929.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Callahan, Mary P. 2003. Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Callahan, Mary P. 2012. “The Generals Loosen Their Grip.” Journal of Democracy 23, no. 4: 120–31. doi: 10.1353/jod.2012.0072.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Callahan, Mary P., and Emmerson, Donald K.. 1998. “Political Legacies and Prospects for Democratic Development in Southeast Asia.” NBR Analysis 9, no. 3. At https://www.nbr.org/publication/political-legacies-and-prospects-for-democratic-development-in-southeast-asia/, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Chang, Wen-Chin. 2004. “Guanxi and Regulation in Networks: The Yunnanese Jade Trade between Burma and Thailand, 1962–88.” Journal of Southeast Asian Studies 35, no. 3: 479–501. doi: 10.1017/S0022463404000244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chang, Wen-Chin. 2006. “The Trading Culture of Jade Stones among the Yunnanese in Burma and Thailand, 1962–88.” Journal of Chinese Overseas 2, no. 2: 269–93. doi: 10.1353/jco.2006.0024.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Xi, and Nordhaus, William D.. 2011. “Using Luminosity Data as a Proxy for Economic Statistics.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 21: 8589–94. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1017031108.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Christensen, Darin, Nguyen, Mai, and Sexton, Renard. 2019a. “Replication Data for: Strategic Violence during Democratization: Evidence from Myanmar.” Harvard Dataverse, V1. doi: 10.7910/DVN/SQ0UM2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, Darin, Nguyen, Mai, and Sexton, Renard. 2019b. Supplementary material for “Strategic Violence during Democratization: Evidence from Myanmar.” doi: 10.1017/S0043887118000308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4: 563–95. doi: 10.1093/oep/gpf064.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Croicu, Mihai, and Sundberg, Ralph. 2015. “UCDP GED Codebook, Version 4.0.” Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Uppsala University. At http://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ucdp-ged-40-codebook.pdf, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Dal Bó, Ernesto, and Dal Bó, Pedro. 2011. “Workers, Warriors, and Criminals: Social Conflict in General Equilibrium.” Journal of the European Economic Association 9, no. 4: 646–77. doi: 10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01025.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dapice, David, and Nguyen, Xuan Thanh. 2013. “Creating a Future: Using Natural Resources for New Federalism and Unity.” Occasional Papers. Cambridge, Mass.: Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Harvard Kennedy School. At http://themimu.info/node/61865, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry. 1997. “Is the Third Wave of Democratization Over? An Empirical Assessment.” Working Paper no. 236. South Bend, Ind.: Kellogg Institute for International Studies, University of Notre Dame. At https://www3.nd.edu/~kellogg/publications/workingpapers/WPS/236.pdf, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Doll, Christopher N. H., Muller, Jan-Peter, and Morley, Jeremy G.. 2006. “Mapping Regional Economic Activity from Night-Time Light Satellite Imagery.” Ecological Economics 57, no. 1: 75–92. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.03.007.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dube, Oeindrila, and Vargas, Juan F.. 2013. “Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia.” Review of Economic Studies 80, no. 4: 1384–421. doi: 10.1093/restud/rdt009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Economist. 2013. “Democracy on Prescription.” May 25. At https://www.economist.com/special-report/2013/05/25/democracy-on-prescription, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3: 379–414. doi: 10.1017/S0020818300033324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feaver, Peter D. 1996. “The Civil-Military Problematique: Huntington, Janowitz, and the Question of Civilian Control.” Armed Forces & Society 23, no. 2: 149–78. doi: 10.1177/0095327X9602300203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fergusson, Leopoldo, Robinson, James A., Torvik, Ragnar, and Vargas, Juan F.. 2014. “The Need for Enemies.” Economic Journal 126, no. 593: 1018–54. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finer, Samuel Edward. 1962. The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics. London, UK: Pall Mall Press.Google Scholar
Flöter, Annegret, Lujala, Päivi, and Rød, Jan Ketil. 2005. “The Gemstone Dataset Codebook.” At http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/Paivi.Lujala/home/GEMDATA_files/GEMDATA%20codebook.pdf, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, Frantz, Erica, and Wright, Joseph G.. 2014. “Military Rule.” Annual Review of Political Science 17: 147–62. doi: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, Wright, Joseph G., and Frantz, Erica. 2014. “Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set.” Perspectives on Politics 12, no. 2: 313–31. doi: 10.1017/S1537592714000851.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gledhill, John. 2012. “Competing for Change: Regime Transition, Intrastate Competition, and Violence.” Security Studies 21, no. 1: 43–82. doi: 10.1080/09636412.2012.650592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Global Witness. 2015. “Jade: Myanmar’s ‘Big State Secret’: The Biggest Natural Resources Heist in Modern History?” October 23. At https://www.nbr.org/publication/political-legacies-and-prospects-for-democratic-development-in-southeast-asia/, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Global Witness. 2016. “Myanmar Government Announces Ground-Breaking Reforms of Toxic Jade Business.” July 28. At https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/myanmar-government-announces-ground-breaking-reforms-toxic-jade-business/, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Global Witness. 2017. “Cursed Treasure: Jade Riches, Deadly Conflict and Prospects for Peace in Myanmar.” At https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/myanmar/cursed-treasure-report/, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Gravers, Mikael, and Ytzen, Flemming, eds. 2014. Burma/Myanmar: Where Now? Copenhagen, Denmark: NIAS Press.Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan, and Kaufman, Robert R.. 1995. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hagopian, Frances. 1990. “Democracy by Undemocratic Means? Elites, Political Pacts, and Regime Transition in Brazil.” Comparative Political Studies 23, no. 2: 147–70. doi: 10.1177/0010414090023002001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmueller, Jens. 2012. “Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies.” Political Analysis 20, no. 1: 25–46. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpr025.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herbst, Jeffrey. 2000. States and Power in Africa: Comparative Lessons in Authority and Control. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hijmans, Robert J., Cameron, Susan E., Parra, Juan L., Jones, Peter G., and Jarvis, Andy. 2005. “Very High Resolution Interpolated Climate Surfaces for Global Land Areas.” International Journal of Climatology 25, no. 15: 1965–78. doi: 10.1002/joc.1276.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hughes, Richard W., Galibert, Olivier, Bosshart, George, Ward, Fred, Oo, Thet, Smith, Mark, Sun, Tay Thye, and Harlow, George E.. 2000. “Burmese Jade: The Inscrutable Gem.” Gems & Gemology 36, no. 1: 2–26. At https://www.gia.edu/gems-gemology/spring-2000-burmese-jade-hughes, accessed November 10, 2018.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 2011. “Burma: Army Committing Abuses in Kachin State.” October 18. At https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/10/18/burma-army-committing-abuses-kachin-state, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1957. The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Irrawaddy. 2014. “A Chronology of Myanmar’s Kachin Conflict.” At https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/military/chronology-kachin-conflict.html, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Janowitz, Morris. 1960. The Professional Soldier: A Social and Political Portrait. New York, N.Y.: Free Press.Google Scholar
Jolliffe, Kim. 2015. Ethnic Armed Conflict and Territorial Administration in Myanmar. Yangon, Myanmar: The Asia Foundation. At http://asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/1521, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Jones, Lee. 2014. “Explaining Myanmar’s Regime Transition: The Periphery Is Central.” Democratization 21, no. 5: 780–802. doi: 10.1080/13510347.2013.863878.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jonsson, Michael, Brennan, Elliot, and O’Hara, Christopher. 2016. “Financing War or Facilitating Peace? The Impact of Rebel Drug Trafficking on Peace Negotiations in Colombia and Myanmar.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 39, no. 6: 542–59. doi: 10.1080/1057610X.2015.1124628.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keen, David. 2014. Useful Enemies: When Waging Wars Is More Important Than Winning Them. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Keller, Edmond J. 2004. “Understanding Conflicts in the Horn of Africa.” In Sriram, Chandra Lekha and Nielsen, Zoe, eds., Exploring Subregional Conflict Opportunities for Conflict Prevention. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Kingsbury, Damien. 2014. “Political Transition in Myanmar: Prospects and Problems.” Asian Politics & Policy 6, no. 3: 351–73. doi: 10.1111/aspp.12115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramer, Tom. 2009. “Burma’s Cease-Fires at Risk: Consequences of the Kokang Crisis for Peace and Democracy.” Peace & Security Briefing, no. 1. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Transnational Institute. At https://www.tni.org/files/download/psbl.pdf, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Kyed, Helene Maria, and Gravers, Mikael. 2014. “Non-state Armed Groups in the Myanmar Peace Process: What Are the Future Options?” DIIS Working Paper no. 7. Copenhagen, Denmark: Danish Institute for International Studies. At http://pure.diis.dk/ws/files/80401/wp2014_07_Non_State_Armed_Groups_in_the_Myanmar.pdf, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Lacina, Bethany, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2005. “Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths.” European Journal of Population 21, no. 2–3: 145–66. doi: 10.1007/s10680-005-6851-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lintner, Bertil. 2013a. “The Military’s Still in Charge: Why Reform in Burma Is Only Skin-Deep.” Foreign Policy, July 9. At https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/07/09/the-militarys-still-in-charge/, accessed November 9, 2018.Google Scholar
Lintner, Bertil. 2013b. “A Well-Laid War in Myanmar.” Asia Times. February 1. At http://www.asia-pacific-solidarity.net/asiapacific/focus/at_awelllaidwarinmyanmar_010213.htm, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Lintner, Bertie. 2015. “Opposition Wins in Myanmar, but Military Still Holds the Reins.” Yale Global Online. November 12. At https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/opposition-wins-myanmar-military-still-holds-reins, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan J., and Stepan, Alfred. 1996. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lujala, Päivi. 2009. “Deadly Combat over Natural Resources: Gems, Petroleum, Drugs, and the Severity of Armed Civil Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53, no. 1: 50–71. doi: 10.1177/0022002708327644.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montgomery, Jacob M., Nyhan, Brendan, and Torres, Michelle. 2018. “How Conditioning on Posttreatment Variables Can Ruin Your Experiment and What to Do about It.” American Journal of Political Science 62, no. 3: 760–75. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Myoe, Maung Aung. 2009. Building the Tatmadaw: Myanmar Armed Forces Since 1948. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naing, Saw Yan. 2012. “Thousands Flee as Burma Army Attacks Jade Capital.” Irrawaddy, August 28. At https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/thousands-flee-as-burma-army-attacks-jade-capital.html, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Naylor, Hugh. 2015. “Houthi Rebels in Yemen Eye Oil-Rich Province, Sparking Fears of All-Out Civil War.” Washington Post, February 15. At https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/houthi-rebels-in-yemen-eye-oil-rich-province-sparking-fears-of-all-out-civil-war/2015/02/14/90da6aa2-b226-11e4-bf39-5560f3918d4b_story.html, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Nyunt, Khin Maung. 1996. “History of Myanmar Jade Trade till 1938.” In Traditions in Current Perspective: Proceedings of the Conference on Myanmar and Southeast Asian Studies. Rangoon, Myanmar: Universities Press.Google Scholar
O’Donnell, Guillermo. 1986. “Introduction to the Latin American Cases.” In O’Donnell, Guillermo, Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence, eds., Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, vol. 2, Latin America. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
O’Donnell, Guillermo, and Schmitter, Philippe C.. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, vol. 4, Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Özbudun, Ergun. 2000. Contemporary Turkish Politics: Challenges to Democratic Consolidation. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reno, William. 1999. Warlord Politics and African States. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Scott, James C. 2009. The Art of Not Being Governed: An Anarchist History of Upland Southeast Asia. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google ScholarPubMed
Shor, Russell. 2013. “As Jadeite Prices Soar, So Does Supply Uncertainty.” GIA. At https://www.gia.edu/sites/Satellite?c=Page&childpagename=GIA%2FPage%2FArticleDetail&cid=1495238602182&pagename=GIA%2FWrapper, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Slater, Dan. 2014. “The Elements of Surprise: Assessing Burma’s Double-Edged Détente.” South East Asia Research 22, no. 2: 171–82. doi: 10.5367/sear.2014.0206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Martin. 2007. State of Strife: The Dynamics of Ethnic Conflict in Burma. Policy Studies no. 36 Washington, D.C.: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sone, Nyein Pyae. 2013. “The Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Also Has to Pay.” Irrawaddy, July 12. At https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/the-union-of-myanmar-economic-holdings-also-has-to-pay.html, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Sun, Yun. 2014. “China, the United States, and the Kachin Conflict.” Issue Brief. Washington D.C.: Stimson Center. At https://www.stimson.org/content/china-united-states-and-kachin-conflict, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Transnational Institute. 2013. “The Kachin Crisis: Peace Must Prevail.” Burma Policy Briefing no. 10. At https://www.tni.org/files/download/bpb10.pdf, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Ulmer, Alexander, and Buitrago, Deisy. 2017. “New Venezuela Oil Boss to Give Military More PDVSA Posts.” Reuters, November 27. At https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil/new-venezuela-oil-boss-to-give-military-more-pdvsa-posts-idUSKBN1DR1T2, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
USA Today. 2013. “Burmese Military Admits Airstrikes against Kachin.” January 3. At https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/01/02/myanmar-airstrikes/1805663/, accessed November 30, 2018.Google Scholar
US House of Representatives. 2008. Tom Lantos Block Burmese JADE (Junta’s Anti-Democratic Efforts) Act of 2008. H.R. 3890, 110th Cong., 2nd Sess. At https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/110/hr3890/text, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Vanden Eynde, Oliver. 2015. “Mining Royalties and Incentives for Security Operations: Evidence from India’s Red Corridor.” PSE Working Papers no. 2015–42. At https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01245496/document, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Watts, Jonathan. 2011. “Dozens Killed in Burma amid Clashes over Chinese Dams.” Guardian, June 16. At https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jun/16/china-burma-hydropower-clashes, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Weidmann, Nils B., and Shutte, Sebastian. 2016. “Using Night Light Emissions for the Prediction of Local Wealth.” Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 2: 125–40. doi: 10.1177/0022343316630359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woods, Kevin. 2011. “Ceasefire Capitalism: Military-Private Partnerships, Resource Concessions and Military-State Building in the Burma-China Borderlands.” Journal of Peasant Studies 38, no. 4: 747–70. doi: 10.1080/03066150.2011.607699.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaw, Hnin Yadana. 2015. “Chinese Jade Miners in Overdrive ahead of New Myanmar Government.” Reuters, December 15. At https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-china-jade-insight-idUSKBN0TZ08520151216, accessed November 10, 2018.Google Scholar
Zin, Min, and Joseph, Brian. 2012. “The Opening in Burma: The Democrats’ Opportunity.” Journal of Democracy 23, no. 4: 104–19. doi: 10.1353/jod.2012.0069.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Christensen et al. supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Christensen et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 710 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Christensen et al. Dataset

Dataset

http://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SQ0UM2
Link