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Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests at a high spatial resolution: a novel approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 January 2011

E. KOCMÁNKOVÁ ,
M. TRNKA ,
J. EITZINGER ,
M. DUBROVSKÝ ,
P. ŠTĚPÁNEK ,
D. SEMERÁDOVÁ ,
J. BALEK ,
P. SKALÁK ,
A. FARDA  and
J. JUROCH
...Show all authors
E. KOCMÁNKOVÁ*
Affiliation:
Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic
M. TRNKA
Affiliation:
Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic
J. EITZINGER
Affiliation:
Institute for Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
M. DUBROVSKÝ
Affiliation:
Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic
P. ŠTĚPÁNEK
Affiliation:
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic
D. SEMERÁDOVÁ
Affiliation:
Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic
J. BALEK
Affiliation:
Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic
P. SKALÁK
Affiliation:
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic
A. FARDA
Affiliation:
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic
J. JUROCH
Affiliation:
State Phytosanitary Administration, Brno, Czech Republic
Z. ŽALUD
Affiliation:
Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: evakocmankova@yahoo.com
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Summary

The present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c. 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 149 , Issue 2 , April 2011 , pp. 185 - 195
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

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References

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