Paradoxical dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 by herd immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement

03 May 2020, Version 1
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed by Cambridge University Press at the time of posting.

Abstract

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China caused a pandemic of COVID-19. However, it remains enigmatic why the mortality rate is variable among countries. Here we show that at least three types of SARS-CoV-2 virus, type S, K, and G. have spread globally and formed complex infectious trends in terms of transmissibility and virulence. Type K establishes herd immunity and protects against the most virulent type G. Immunity to type S is involved in aggravating type G infections through antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). Epidemiological tools based on influenza and SARS-CoV-2 epidemic curves explain why COVID-19 mortality varies among Japan prefectures and European countries, and warns of high fatality in the United States. An equation was developed to quantify the severity of COVID-19. Our tools and equations also detect new infectious disease explosions and bioterrorism early, and guide containment of the virus with therapeutic approaches and local policies efficiently inducing herd immunity.

Keywords

COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
herd immunity
antibody-dependent enhancement

Supplementary materials

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