Back to Medicine (excluding clinical)

Paradoxical dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 by herd immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement



The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China caused a pandemic of COVID-19. However, it remains enigmatic why the mortality rate is variable among countries. Here we show that at least three types of SARS-CoV-2 virus, type S, K, and G. have spread globally and formed complex infectious trends in terms of transmissibility and virulence. Type K establishes herd immunity and protects against the most virulent type G. Immunity to type S is involved in aggravating type G infections through antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). Epidemiological tools based on influenza and SARS-CoV-2 epidemic curves explain why COVID-19 mortality varies among Japan prefectures and European countries, and warns of high fatality in the United States. An equation was developed to quantify the severity of COVID-19. Our tools and equations also detect new infectious disease explosions and bioterrorism early, and guide containment of the virus with therapeutic approaches and local policies efficiently inducing herd immunity.


Thumbnail image of Kamikubo_all.pdf

Supplementary material

Thumbnail image of Kamikubo_Extended Data Fig.pdf
Extended Data Figures
Supplementary figures.


Log in or register with Cambridge Core to comment
Comments are not moderated before they are posted, but they can be removed by the site moderators if they are found to be in contravention of our Commenting Policy [opens in a new tab] – please read this policy before you post. Comments should be used for scholarly discussion of the content in question. You can find more information about how to use the commenting feature here [opens in a new tab] .