Environmental impacts of future cotton production in the United States

The environmental impacts of cotton production in the United States will change with evolving technology and a changing climate. We therefore predict these environmental impacts, including water and energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, under different future scenarios through 2049. Our predictions, driven by machine learning models and climate projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, highlight several key trends. The total water use for cotton production is dominated by irrigation water and is expected to increase slightly by 2049 because of climate change. The current pattern of lower irrigation needs in the East and higher needs in the West will continue. Nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application are significantly influenced by wet and dry climate conditions. These emissions constitute a major source of greenhouse gas emissions for cotton lint production, representing approximately 28% of total emissions under current practices. Regarding energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, the declining trend in electricity and diesel usage since 2000 highlights the benefits of technological advancements in agricultural machinery and irrigation systems. The scenarios proposed in this study replace diesel with electricity to power farm equipment, not only meet cost constraints but also provide environmental benefits by reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 24% to 32% by 2050. This research provides valuable insights into the future environmental impacts of cotton lint production, examining the integrated effects of climate change, fertilizer management, and electrified agricultural machinery. These findings serve as an important reference for agricultural stakeholders and policymakers.