Hyperlocal Sensing and Inverse Modeling Reveal Community Impacts of Urban Air Pollutant Emissions

13 October 2025, Version 1
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed by Cambridge University Press at the time of posting.

Abstract

Addressing urban air pollution requires identifying, quantifying, and mitigating emission sources, yet bottom-up emissions inventories often lack fine spatiotemporal precision and rarely capture unpermitted or informally operated sources. For the first time, we combine dense mobile and fixed-site air pollution measurements in a Bayesian inverse modeling framework to produce hourly, hyperlocal (150 m × 150 m ≈ 0.02 km2) black carbon emission maps that directly reveal how and where key sources may be underrepresented. In a test case in West Oakland, CA — a community with long-documented elevated diesel particulate matter exposures and proximity to major freight infrastructure — our approach identifies previously unaccounted and underestimated emission sources, increasing total estimated BC emissions by ~33%. Crucially, these corrections quadruple the contribution of neighborhood and port-related sources to population-weighted exposures (from 5 to 20%), disproportionately affecting low-income neighborhoods adjacent to freight corridors. Our results demonstrate that combining multi-platform, dense observational data with inverse modeling enables reliable detection and quantification of overlooked emissions, supporting more precisely targeted policy intervention.

Keywords

Bayesian Inference
Inverse Modeling
Spatiotemporal Modeling
Black Carbon
Urban Air Quality
Data Assimilation

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