A Data-Driven Framework for Urban Heat Vulnerability Modelling and Intervention Planning

Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) intensify the risks of extreme heat in urban environments, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. While their impacts have been widely studied in major cities, medium-sized UK towns remain underrepresented in vulnerability assessments. This project develops a data-driven framework to map and mitigate UHI vulnerability in such towns, with Luton and Oxford as case studies. Using satellite-derived surface temperature data, socioeconomic indicators such as deprivation, and land cover information, a novel urban heat vulnerability index was constructed through a factor analysis. Gaussian-weighted spatial sampling and deprivation metrics provided a nuanced insight into localised and granular human exposure. Thermodynamic simulations of roofing materials further evaluated cost-effective surface interventions. Results revealed significant spatial variation in heat exposure and vulnerability, with deprived and densely populated areas clearly being disproportionately affected. The framework enables targeted urban planning responses such as greening strategies, and is designed to be scalable across the UK and internationally. This study highlights the importance of integrating environmental, demographic and material factors into local climate adaptation strategies, and proposes a pathway toward nationwide resilience planning informed by data-driven, spatial diagnostics.