Tariffs and Turmoil: Energy Market Volatility Amid US-China Trade Escalation

15 November 2025, Version 2
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed by Cambridge University Press at the time of posting.

Abstract

This study examines how reciprocal tariff escalations between the US and China affect their energy market volatility. The results show that tariff announcements significantly increased volatility in both markets, with the Chinese energy markets exhibiting stronger pre-event reactions and larger overall shocks. This research contributes to the understanding of asymmetric pre-event reactions in energy markets to tariff announcements, specifically showing that Chinese energy markets exhibit stronger anticipatory responses compared to the US market.

Keywords

Trade war
US-China tariffs
Energy volatility
Event study

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