Regional Electrification Strategies, Grid Expansion and Energy Access in Ghana: An Optimisation Modelling Approach

Ghana’s electricity sector faces persistent challenges of transmission losses, regional inequities, and limited renewable integration despite achieving a high national electricity access rate of 89%. While national-level energy models have provided valuable insights for Ghana, spatial bottle-necks and urban-rural disparities need to be further examined. This study develops a multi-regional optimisation energy system model that segments Ghana into four clusters (Coastal, Central, Northern, and Northern Remote) based on access rates, grid infrastructure, and current and potential power generation. The model integrates inter-regional transmission and distribution losses, government target for renewable energy integration, and urban-rural demand differences to simulate four scenarios from 2015 to 2070: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Transmission and Distribution Loss Target (TDL), Government Target (GT), and a combined pathway of GT and TDL (GT+T). Results show that long term power system planning dominated by conventional generation leads to high total system costs (USD 95 billion by 2070), largely driven by fossil fuel operating expenditures. In contrast, the combined implementation of grid efficiency improvements and renewable energy integration could reduce total system costs by up to 39%. Transmission system analysis shows that pathways without efficiency interventions place significant stress on central transmission corridors. Inter-regional electricity trade analysis in rural clusters further reveals that increased renewable deployment according to government target enables diverse supply sources, reduces reliance on long-distance transmission, and improves spatial equity in electricity access. This study demonstrates that integrating grid efficiency measures with renewable deployment represents the least-cost and most resilient pathway for Ghana’s long term power system development.