Embedding resilience in deep decarbonisation pathways for emerging economies: The case of India

Deep decarbonisation of electricity systems in emerging economies faces a critical challenge: the technical feasibility of 100% variable renewable energy pathways depends on enabling conditions such as modern, fast-response grid infrastructure, mature demand response, large-scale storage deployment, the availability of non-variable renewable resources and adequate governance capacity. These conditions may be difficult to realise in many countries in the Global South that face structural transition uncertainties, including infrastructure gaps, investment constraints, and governance issues. This creates a need to embed resilience to such constraints to increase the likelihood of achieving deep decarbonisation pathways in practice. The study proposes a modelling approach that limits the impact of the above uncertainties by operationalising resilience through the imposition of minimum firm, dispatchable capacity (FDC) requirements within a long-term energy system optimisation model. The approach is applied to India’s electricity sector through a time horizon until 2050, employing six different scenarios - Business-as-Usual, Stated Policy, and four Deep Decarbonisation sub-scenarios. The results demonstrate that deep decarbonisation under realistic Indian conditions requires a diversified portfolio of firm low-carbon technologies alongside variable renewables. Results show that low FDC floors (20% of peak) maintain near-100% renewable generation with minimal cost penalties (~1% renewable share drop). Higher thresholds (>40%) bind hydropower limits, favouring coal-CCS (100-249 GW) alongside nuclear (35 GW), reducing storage needs by 57% and adding a modest 14% investment premium ($17.9B cumulative). The framework is directly transferable to other coal-dependent emerging economies facing comparable structural uncertainties.