Testing and Calibration of Government Reports Using Sustainable Pathways: A Case of Pakistan

The intersection of energy systems optimization modelling and policy evaluation remains critically underdeveloped in developing-country contexts, where data discrepancies, institutional capacity constraints, and the rapid growth of decentralized solar photovoltaics (PV) routinely confound government energy planning. This paper presents a five-step integrated methodology combining open-source energy system optimization modelling with systematic policy evaluation and government data auditing, applied comprehensively to Pakistan's energy system with 2024 as the base year and projections to 2050. The five steps comprise: (1) Multi-Source Data Discrepancy Diagnosis; (2) OSeMOSYS Model Construction and Sector-Coupled Calibration; (3) Systematic Testing and Audit of Government-Published Energy Reports; (4) Discrepancy Reporting and Source-of-Error Attribution; and (5) Scenario-Based Policy Calibration and Reform Pathways. Application to Pakistan reveals structural discrepancies averaging 18-34% between government-published energy statistics, quantifies a previously unreported 12.4 GW gap between officially counted and operationally active generation capacity, and diagnoses the systematic exclusion of 3-8 GW of decentralized rooftop solar from national energy balances. Scenario analysis projects that an ambitious transition pathway could achieve 72% renewable electricity by 2035 and deliver net system cost savings of USD 340 billion over 2025-2050 relative to the Business-as-Usual trajectory when fossil fuel import savings are included. The five-step methodology is designed for replication across developing nations facing comparable data and institutional challenges.