Disaggregating Cooking Transitions: Urban and Rural Energy Demand and Emissions Pathways in Ghana

Globally, biomass combustion for cooking accounts for an estimated 2.8 to 2.9 million premature deaths each year from household air pollution. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where the number of people without clean cooking access continues to grow, as population growth outpaces clean energy deployment. In Ghana, 67 to 75% of households rely on solid fuels for cooking, despite high electrification rates. Household air pollution from solid fuel combustion is associated with an estimated 16,000 to 18,000 premature deaths annually. Urban and rural populations differ in fuel mix and pollution exposure, yet national projections aggregate them. Using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand, we project cooking energy demand, fine particulate matter, and carbon dioxide emissions separately for urban and rural Ghana from 2023 to 2050 under three policy scenarios. Urban and rural demand diverge across all scenarios. Under stated policies and the sustainable development scenario, national fine particulate matter declines while carbon dioxide rises. Particulate matter remains concentrated in rural areas while carbon dioxide shifts toward urban areas. Under the low-carbon scenario, national demand falls despite a 56% population increase. Emissions remain concentrated in rural areas. The rural particulate matter share rises from 70% to 78% and the rural carbon dioxide share from 52% to 62%. Urban and rural projections reveal subnational inequality that national aggregates obscure.