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1 results

  • Are Choice Experiment Treatments of Outcome Uncertainty Sufficient? An Application to Climate Risk Reductions

  • Christos Makriyannis, Robert J. Johnston, Adam W. Whelchel
  • Journal:
    Agricultural and Resource Economics Review / Volume 47 / Issue 3 / December 2018
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    10 April 2018, pp. 419-451
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  • Choice experiments addressing outcome uncertainty (OU) typically reframe continuous probability densities for each risky outcome into two discrete categories, each with a single probability of occurrence. The implications of this simplification for welfare estimation are unknown. This article evaluates the convergent validity of willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates from a more accurate multiple-outcome treatment of OU, compared to the two-outcome approach. Results for a case study of coastal flood adaptation in Connecticut, United States, suggest that higher-resolution OU treatments increase choice complexity but can provide additional information on risk preferences and WTP. This tradeoff highlights challenges facing the valuation of uncertain outcomes.