This chapter is devoted to a detailed examination of the developments in mining, manufacturing, and agriculture in the years prior to the turning point in the early 1970s identified in Chapter 7. The domestic and external reasons for the deterioration in economic performance after this point are discussed in Chapters 9 and 10.

The period from the end of the Second World War to the crisis of the early 1970s was one of exceptionally rapid growth. It was a time of great optimism and confidence in the development of the South African economy, and there was indeed much to celebrate. But the attempt to achieve rapid industrial growth within a system of apartheid designed to secure racial discrimination and separation was being tested to destruction. The economy was rushing forward at great speed, especially in the 1960s, but it was out of control; it was racing towards barriers that were inherent in the framework of laws and institutions erected in pursuit of white supremacy. When it reached those barriers a crash was inevitable; no recovery was possible without fundamental change; growth could not be resumed.

Three more windfalls for the gold mines

Contrary to initial expectations, gold mining flourished remarkably during the initial postwar decades. The very pessimistic estimates prepared by the Government Mining Engineer in 1941 for the Van Eck Commission (referred to in Chapter 6) had predicted that the annual tonnage of gold would decline steeply by 1965.