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7 - Future Tropical Cyclone Projections and Uncertainty Estimates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2022

Pao-Shin Chu  and
Hiroyuki Murakami
Pao-Shin Chu
Affiliation:
University of Hawaii, Manoa
Hiroyuki Murakami
Affiliation:
UCAR
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Summary

Tropical cyclones exert great impact on society. Therefore, for a long time an important scientific question has been whether changing the climate system affects tropical cyclone activity. Recent studies reported that global mean temperature has been rising since the mid-twentieth century, and the temperature rise is attributable to increases in emissions of greenhouse gasses (Bindoff et al., 2013; IPCC, 2013). An intuitive hypothesis under the warming trend at a global scale is that the mean global number of tropical cyclones would increase and mean storm intensity would be stronger because tropical cyclone activity could be favorable in a warmer environment. However, the science community has not yet reached a robust consensus on whether this hypothesis is true or not, especially for the effect of global warming on global tropical cyclone numbers (IPCC, 2013).

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Climate Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity , pp. 258 - 292
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

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