Commentaries on sub-Saharan regime transitions run the gamut from giddy Afrophilia to gloomy Afropessimism. First assessments were hopeful, seeing the peaceful electoral displacement of authoritarian regimes in countries like Bénin and Zambia as harbingers of “political renewal” and “second liberation.” A critical backlash soon followed in the wake of a series of disputed elections in places like Angola and Kenya. At best analysts pondered thoughtfully about the sustainability of multiparty competition under conditions of ethnic fragmentation and elite corruption or at worst lapsed into apocalyptic warnings of impending civil disorder in the wake of the “stalling … winds of change.”

In our view, analysts should not rush to judgment but instead adopt a detached and broadly comparative view of what is essentially a mixed situation of democratization in Africa. As Peterson suggests, “Democratic development will not be a uniform, linear process.” Even in democratizing countries, transitions unfold with occasional steps back for every step forward. As some countries advance, others regress into authoritarian rule. And some years are better for democratization than others, making long-term predictions from short-term trends risky at best; for example, although there was a preponderance of democratic transitions in Africa in 1991 and 1994, there was a flurry of flawed elections in 1992 and 1993. At any given time, optimists can discover reasons for celebration in some countries, and skeptics will find their worst fears confirmed in others.