This conclusion, while acknowledging some difficulties with comparative evidence, examines the impact of devolution on social policy from four different perspectives as well. The concluding comments address some wider consequences of devolution and social policy: the UK citizenship debate, devolved models of social policy and finally the future development of devolution and the future of devolved social policy.

A number of factors can be identified as constraining the evaluation of the impact of devolution on social policy. First, some believe that it is too early to make a judgement. Fawcett (2003), for example, thought it too early to answer whether devolution had produced welfare state divergence. Three years on, Schmuecker and Adams (2006, p 33) thought it was still difficult to discern the extent of divergence in the UK, and Wincott (2006b, p 175) also stated that it was too early for the impact of devolution on social citizenship to be judged definitively. Second, it is always difficult to control for influences on social policy developments other than devolution. Third, some differences in social policy that did exist in the three countries prior to devolution have attracted more focused attention since. The early experience has also been affected by differences in the operation of devolution, with less extensive legislative powers for Wales and the political disruptions in Northern Ireland; since 2007, however, these factors have lost some of their significance. A final factor has increased in influence – the financial pressures that can operate to limit radical departures in social policy between the four countries of the UK.

Assessments of the impact of devolution on social policy

An assessment of the impact of devolution on social policy can relate to four domains: first, a comprehensive overall assessment covering all three countries and the whole field of social policy; second, an assessment of the impact of devolution on social policy in the individual countries; third, a comparative assessment of the impact of devolution on different areas of social policy; and fourth, apart from these more comparative assessments, it is also possible to identify the more isolated impact of a distinctive component of a policy, found in only one country.