INTRODUCTION

What makes history move? What are the forces that determine what we will read in the newspapers tomorrow? What factors do we examine if we want to predict whether, given a crisis in the Middle East or Southeast Asia, there will be another war or not? The answer to all these questions and the major rationale of this essay is simply: people and their choices.

What follows is a theoretical statement about the unfolding of international processes viewed from the perspective of the people who participate in them and the decisions which – I believe – determine when such processes start and end and what they tend to look like. Because international processes are extremely complex, especially when viewed from a human – rather than systemic – perspective, the theory that follows is not a simple one. This study attempts to bring together our seemingly disparate pieces of theoretical and empirical knowledge within a synthesized and empirically testable framework of interdependent choices.

The complexity of international processes and the diversity of available explanations require that the interdependent choice framework be constructed gradually. We must discern step-by-step the maze of theory and research on the relationships between people, their choices, and world politics. We must show why the resulting framework is needed and how it emerges from, and improves upon, other images of international politics. This is, indeed, the guiding principle behind the organization of the study.