Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics

doi:10.1017/9781316339251

It is now widely recognized that the climate system is governed by nonlinear, multi-scale processes, whereby memory effects and stochastic forcing by fast processes, such as weather and convective systems, can induce regime behavior. Motivated by present difficulties in understanding the climate system and to aid the improvement of numerical weather and climate models, this book gathers contributions from mathematics, physics and climate science to highlight the latest developments and current research questions in nonlinear and stochastic climate dynamics. Leading researchers discuss some of the most challenging and exciting areas of research in the mathematical geosciences, such as the theory of tipping points and of extreme events including spatial extremes, climate networks, data assimilation and dynamical systems. This book provides graduate students and researchers with a broad overview of the physical climate system and introduces powerful data analysis and modeling methods for climate scientists and applied mathematicians.

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv
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Contents
pp v-vi
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List of Figures
pp vii-xxiii
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List of Contributors
pp xxiv-xxx
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Preface
pp xxxi-xxxiv
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1 - Challenges for Ice Age Dynamics: A Dynamical Systems Perspective
pp 1-32
- By Michel Crucifix, Earth and Life Institute (ELIC), Guillaume Lenoir, Earth and Life Institute (ELIC), Takahito Mitsui, Earth and Life Institute (ELIC)
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2 - Tipping Points in the Climate System
pp 33-53
- By Peter Ditlevsen, Niels Bohr Institute
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3 - Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns
pp 54-104
- By Steven B. Feldstein, The Pennsylvania State University, Christian L. E. Franzke, University of Hamburg
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4 - Atmospheric Regimes: The Link between Weather and the Large-Scale Circulation
pp 105-135
- By David M. Straus, George Mason University, Franco Molteni, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Susanna Corti, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
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5 - Low-Frequency Regime Transitions and Predictability of Regimes in a Barotropic Model
pp 136-158
- By Balu T. Nadiga, Los Alamos National Lab, MS-B296, Terence J. O'kane, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
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6 - Complex Network Techniques for Climatological Data Analysis
pp 159-183
- By Reik V. Donner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Marc Wiedermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Jonathan F. Donges, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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7 - On Inference and Validation of Causality Relations in Climate Teleconnections
pp 184-208
- By Illia Horenko, Universita della Svizzera Italiana, Susanne Gerber, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Terence J. O'kane, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, James S. Risbey, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Didier P. Monselesan, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
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8 - Stochastic Climate Theory
pp 209-240
- By Georg A. Gottwald, The University of Sydney, Daan T. Crommelin, University of Amsterdam, Christian L. E. Franzke, University of Hamburg
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9 - Stochastic Subgrid Modelling for Geophysical and Three-Dimensional Turbulence
pp 241-275
- By Jorgen S. Frederiksen, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Vassili Kitsios, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Terence J. O'kane, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Meelis J. Zidikheri, Australian Bureau of Meteorology
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10 - Model Error in Data Assimilation
pp 276-317
- By John Harlim, The Pennsylvania State University
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11 - Long-Term Memory in Climate: Detection, Extreme Events, and Significance of Trends
pp 318-339
- By Armin Bunde, Institut für Theoretische Physik III, Josef Ludescher, Institut für Theoretische Physik III
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12 - Fractional Stochastic Models for Heavy Tailed, and Long-Range Dependent, Fluctuations in Physical Systems
pp 340-368
- By Nicholas W. Watkins, London School of Economics and Political Science
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13 - Modelling Spatial Extremes Using Max-Stable Processes
pp 369-391
- By Mathieu Ribatet, Université de Montpellier
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14 - Extreme Value Analysis in Dynamical Systems: Two Case Studies
pp 392-429
- By Tamás Bódai, University of Hamburg
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Index
pp 430-432
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Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv

Contents
pp v-vi

List of Figures
pp vii-xxiii

List of Contributors
pp xxiv-xxx

Preface
pp xxxi-xxxiv

1 - Challenges for Ice Age Dynamics: A Dynamical Systems Perspective
pp 1-32

2 - Tipping Points in the Climate System
pp 33-53

3 - Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns
pp 54-104

4 - Atmospheric Regimes: The Link between Weather and the Large-Scale Circulation
pp 105-135

5 - Low-Frequency Regime Transitions and Predictability of Regimes in a Barotropic Model
pp 136-158

6 - Complex Network Techniques for Climatological Data Analysis
pp 159-183

7 - On Inference and Validation of Causality Relations in Climate Teleconnections
pp 184-208

8 - Stochastic Climate Theory
pp 209-240

9 - Stochastic Subgrid Modelling for Geophysical and Three-Dimensional Turbulence
pp 241-275

10 - Model Error in Data Assimilation
pp 276-317

11 - Long-Term Memory in Climate: Detection, Extreme Events, and Significance of Trends
pp 318-339

12 - Fractional Stochastic Models for Heavy Tailed, and Long-Range Dependent, Fluctuations in Physical Systems
pp 340-368

13 - Modelling Spatial Extremes Using Max-Stable Processes
pp 369-391

14 - Extreme Value Analysis in Dynamical Systems: Two Case Studies
pp 392-429

Index
pp 430-432

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Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics

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