How does one test the theory of ephemeral gains systematically? Three strategies are adopted in identifying cases for analysis. First, a systematic method of selection will be based on the principal independent variable, the ephemeral gain or victory. This involves a diachronic process for each case, including at least one loss and a prior victory, as well as earlier subordination. We begin with an examination of interstate wars involving territorial transfer as a major outcome of lost wars. Given the theory specifying subordination, then gain preceding later loss (see Figure 1.1), the possibility of prior gain will be examined for all European cases beginning in 1807, the nadir of Prussian fortunes prior to its expansion leading to the unification of Germany in that century. Later losses will be identified for the period 1894–1997, the last year that data appear in the source.

Second, after World War II, especially toward the end of the twentieth century, transnational movements emerged facilitated by new and powerful forms of global communication. Cross-border identifications among affine populations have intensified in recent years because of the growth of various forms of mass communication, the internet constituting one example, the Al-Jazeera Arabic-language television station providing another. Interstate war no longer was the only vehicle for societal gains and losses. Conflicts stemming from transnational processes in the post-World War II period will be examined.

Finally, comparisons with cognate instances of mass murder not stemming directly from the ephemeral gain will be introduced.