Chapter 2 sets out a theory sketch, laying out some of the principal arguments that under-pin our research program. The term theory sketch we employ to give fair warning: Our ideas are still in the process of development.

It is commonplace to observe that empirical studies are undertaken to test theories – commonplace and quite wrong so far as political analysis is concerned. It puts the cart before the horse: It supposes that we have already been blessed with an assortment of high-grade theories, and our task is only to decide which of them is correct; it would be too kind to characterize this supposition as an exaggeration. The task is precisely to develop a set of arguments that deserve to be characterized as a theory.

Following Popper, we believe the right way to do this is any way that works. In our case, we have focused continuously on a puzzle: How can citizens figure out what they favor and oppose politically given how little they know about politics? But our focus is not in the abstract: Always we have attacked our puzzle in the context of a specific data set. […]