Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 August 2012
Summary
The climate of the British Isles is changing rapidly and is predicted to continue doing so during the twenty-first century. During the course of the twentieth century, temperature rose by approximately 1 °C. The consequences of this have been seen in the abundance, distribution and phenology (life-cycle timing) of some of the British wildlife. Most changes are consistent with a warming Britain; growth of populations of warmth-loving species, northwards expansion of many species and advanced spring phenology. Changes in phenology, in particular, demonstrate the most consistent changes in wildlife as a consequence of a warming climate. In this chapter we present examples of these changes and discuss possible implications for the future.
Introduction
The Central England Temperature Series summarises the temperature of central England from 1659 onwards. It has been shown to be highly correlated with temperatures from individual stations across the UK, except northern and western extremities. As such it can be considered to be broadly representative of the temperatures of the British Isles. Figure 2.1 shows annual mean temperatures averaged in decadal blocks 1660–9, 1670–9 etc. The final point represents the mean of the eight years 2000–7. With the exception of a warm decade in the 1730s there appears to have been a steady rise in temperature which has accelerated in the last two decades. Indeed, 2006 was the warmest year in the 1659–2007 period and nine of the ten warmest years in the series have occurred since 1989.
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