Traditionally, Brunei has prided itself on its ability to forge its own patterns of social and economic development coupled with its distinctive culture and system of governance. In its elaboration of the concept of Malay Muslim Monarchy (Melayu, Islam, Beraja — MIB), and its efforts to direct economic and social development at its own pace and with its own priorities, the country and its ruler have sought to channel and control external influences, whether those influences are felt in political, economic or cultural terms. That desire remains strong and has been an important motif in royal pronouncements (titah) and in the media throughout 1998. But there can be little doubt that the impact of the economic downturn in the region, coupled with the unravelling of the complex tangle of business failures surrounding the collapse of Amedeo Corporation, the failed business conglomerate controlled by Prince Jefri, the Sultan's brother, has demonstrated that the shape of Brunei's society and economy cannot be insulated from external influences.

The impact of regional and local changes has been sharp. The economic downturn, a fall in the value of the Brunei dollar (around 15 per cent against the US$), the collapse of the rental property market, and a slump in the sales of consumer durables, brought home to all sectors of Brunei society the realities of regional and global economic interdependence. Neither the economy nor the political and social system is in crisis, that much is clear. But the events of the last year have been a shock to Bruneians and to the expatriate community that relied on jobs in the state, and that shock brought about strong reactions from the Sultan, from the political élite and from all levels of government. The traditionally quiescent pace of political and economic life in Brunei has been rudely awakened by these changes.

Economic Change

Economic stresses underpinned social and political life in Brunei in the past year to a much greater extent than usual.