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Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Robert S. Erikson
University of Houston


This analysis demonstrates that the relative growth of per capita income change is an important determinant of post-World War II presidential election outcomes. Per capita income change is even a better predictor of presidential election outcomes than the electorate's relative attraction to the Democratic and Republican candidates as calibrated in National Election Study surveys. The significance of this finding is discussed.

Research Notes
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1989

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