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Voting Outcomes in the 1984 Democratic Party Primaries and Caucuses

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

T. Wayne Parent ,
Calvin C. Jillson  and
Ronald E. Weber
T. Wayne Parent
Affiliation:
Louisiana State University
Calvin C. Jillson
Affiliation:
Louisiana State University
Ronald E. Weber
Affiliation:
Louisiana State University
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Abstract

Scholarly inquiry concerning influences on electoral outcomes in the presidential nomination process, though extensive, has been conducted almost exclusively with data collected at the individual level of analysis. The Michigan model of normal vote analysis suggests that long-term influences measured at the aggregate level, such as the sociodemographic, economic, and ideological characteristics of the states, are also important in determining electoral outcomes. We present an aggregate-level analysis of state characteristics that affected the Hart, Jackson, and Mondale vote proportions in the 1984 Democratic caucuses and primaries. Our primary election models explain between 65% and 83% of the variance in candidate vote shares, with sociodemographic and economic factors as the leading indicators. In the caucuses, we find that campaign spending and sociodemographic influences are dominant in models that explain between 38% and 81% of the variance. We conclude with a brief discussion of what our findings mean for future Democratic candidates.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 81 , Issue 1 , March 1987 , pp. 67 - 84
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1987

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