This paper gives a method for premium rating by postcode area. The method is based on spatial models in a Bayesian framework and uses the Gibbs sampler for estimation. A summary of the theory of Bayesian spatial methods is given and the data which was analysed by Taylor (1989) is reanalysed. An indication is given of the wide range of models within this class which would be suitable for insurance data. The aim of the paper is to introduce the models and to show how they can be utilised in an insurance setting.

An overview of the potential of Generalized Linear Models as a means of modelling the salient features of the claims process in the presence of rating factors is presented. Specific attention is focused on the rich variety of modelling distributions which can be implemented in this context.

The automobile third party insurance merit-rating systems of 22 countries are simulated and compared, using as main tools the stationary average premium level, the variability of the policyholders' payments, their elasticity with respect to the claim frequency, and the magnitude of the hunger for bonus. Principal components analysis is used to define an “Index of Toughness” for all systems.

In this paper some results are given on the addivity of chain-ladder projections. Given two claims development triangles, when do their chain-ladder projections add up to the projections of the combined triangle, that is the triangle being the element-wise sum of the two given triangles?

Necessary and sufficient conditions for equality are given. These are of a fairly simply form and are directly connected to the ordinary chain-ladder calculations. In addition, sufficient conditions of the same form are given for inequality between the combined projection vector and the sum of the two original projections vectors.

The calculation of mean claim sizes, in the presence of a deductible, is usually achieved through numerical integration. In case of a Lognormal or Gamma distribution, the quantities of interest can easily be expressed as functions of the cumulative distribution function, with modified parameters. This also applies to the F-distribution, where the incomplete Beta function enters the scene; see for instance the appendix in Hogg and Klugman (1984).

The purpose of this paper is to derive an explicit formula for the first two moments of the Inverse Gaussian distribution, in the presence of censoring. For reasons of completeness we also consider truncation of the Inverse Gaussian distribution by an upper limit.

The tractability of the derivation depends in a crucial way on two properties of the Inverse Gaussian distribution. Firstly, the cumulative distribution function of the Inverse Gaussian can be written as a simple function using the Normal probability integral. Secondly, the moment generating function of a censorized Inverse Gaussian distribution boils down to an expression containing the cumulative Inverse Gaussian distribution. This manifests itself most clearly in case of life insurance where the quantity of interest is the expectation of a present value. In case of non-life insurance, where the dimension of the Inverse Gaussian random variable is money instead of time, a further step is required: differentiation of the moment generating function.

So, a natural order of this paper is to address ourselves first to the derivation for the life case and afterwards tackling the more laborious derivation for the non-life case.

This paper considers the application of state space modelling to the chain ladder linear model in order to allow the run-off parameters to vary with accident year. In the usual application of the chain ladder technique, the development factors are assumed to be the same for each accident year. This implies that the run-off shape does not alter with accident year. This paper shows how this assumption can be relaxed in order to allow a recursive smooth model to be applied, or for large changes in the shape of the run-off curve. It is possible for these changes to be modelled using external inputs, or for a multiprocess model to be used to detect changes in the run-off shape.