This abstract relates to the following paper:

KelliherP.O.J., WilmotD., VijJ. and KlumpesP.J.M.A common risk classification system for the Actuarial Profession ‐ Abstract of the Edinburgh discussionBritish Actuarial Journal, doi:10.1017/S1357321712000293

Over the course of the 20th century Ireland moved from being a largely young population with a high death rate from infectious diseases to an increasingly older population with a consequent rise in chronic diseases. Understanding the changes that occurred in Irish mortality over the 20th century and how these changes compare with those experienced by similar countries can help us plan for the challenges of our aging population. This paper analyses trends in mortality in Ireland over the period 1901 to 2006 by age group, gender and five broad categories of cause of death – infectious diseases, circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, cancer and external causes. To place the changes in an international context the trends are compared with those experienced by Northern Ireland and England and Wales. Ireland experienced the fastest improvements in mortality of the three regions in the early years of the 21st century. By 2006 the mortality of Irish males ranked between that of Northern Ireland and England and Wales while Irish females experienced the lowest mortality of the three regions. The improvement in Irish mortality in the 21st century can be attributed mainly to the drop in deaths from circulatory diseases for both males and females.

We investigate the link between death rates and smoking prevalence in ten developed countries with the aim of using smoking prevalence data to explain differences in country-specific death rates. A particular problem in building a stochastic mortality model based on smoking prevalence is that there are in general no separate mortality data for smokers and non-smokers available. We show how we can estimate mortality rates for smokers and non-smokers using information about the smoking prevalence in a number of developed countries, and making an additional assumption about the death rates of smokers. We consider this empirical investigation to be the first step towards a consistent mortality model for multiple populations, which will require modelling of country specific differences in mortality, as well as non-smokers’ and smokers’ mortality rates.

The Management Board of the UK Actuarial Profession has identified enterprise risk management (ERM) as an area of growth, particularly within the financial sector. It is an area which offers opportunities for actuaries, working with other disciplines, to move out of their traditional sectors of employment, with the skill set required fitting well with an actuary's training and practical focus.

Members of the Profession also highlighted ERM as one of the two main areas where they wanted the Profession to focus their research efforts in the membership survey in 2009. Consequentially the Management Board allocated funds to support research projects in ERM in 2010–2011 and has worked with the ERM Practice Area Committee to identify the topics that they feel most suited to external research where the outputs will have a broad strategic value to the financial services sector.

This abstract relates to the following paper:

AllanN., CantleN., GodfreyP. and YinY.A review of the use of complex systems applied to risk appetite and emerging risks in ERM practice ‐ Abstract of the London discussionBritish Actuarial Journal, doi:10.1017/S135732171200030X

Cancer causes one in four of all deaths in the UK. Advances in biologic and pharmaceutical therapies over recent years have increased achievable survival gain in most life-limiting cancers, ranging from modest incremental improvements to step changes in life expectancy. The realised and anticipated impact of treatment advances on survival is of wide-ranging interest, from informing decisions about healthcare to understanding influences on mortality trends. This paper presents an overview of evidence for survival extension from a range of therapies that have become available in recent years for the treatment of lung, colorectal and breast cancer. The evidence considered includes short-term empirical evidence from clinical trials as well as longer-term estimates from models extrapolating over a lifetime horizon. The core data source is the evidence base supporting guidance published by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), UK. This evidence has already been subject to appraisal by NICE; the aim of this paper is to collate the existing estimates submitted to NICE in order to appreciate the wide range in survival extension resulting from systematically identified cancer treatments.

Underwriting in the United States (US) life insurance marketplace has evolved tremendously over the last several decades. This paper will take a brief look at that history, from the older underwriting techniques still in use today to the introduction of smoker/nonsmoker distinctions in about 1980 to the evolution of preferred underwriting in the late 1980s, and finally to a movement toward simplified issue underwriting and a new approach to older age underwriting today.

This abstract relates to the following paper:

AllanN., CantleN., GodfreyP. and YinY.A review of the use of complex systems applied to risk appetite and emerging risks in ERM Practice ‐ Abstract of the Edinburgh DiscussionBritish Actuarial Journal, doi:10.1017/S135732171200030X