Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-747cfc64b6-4xs5l Total loading time: 0.291 Render date: 2021-06-13T18:48:30.286Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "metricsAbstractViews": false, "figures": true, "newCiteModal": false, "newCitedByModal": true, "newEcommerce": true }

The Impact of Economic Crises on Political Representation in Public Communication: Evidence from the Eurozone

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 June 2017

Abstract

External threats such as war have been shown to disrupt representation as politicians ‘put politics aside’ and cooperate across cleavages. This article examines whether a severe economic crisis can have a similar effect. It introduces a new approach that provides a spatial representation of how political parties represent societal actors in their public interactions, based on more than 140,000 machine coded news events from eleven eurozone countries between 2001 and 2011. The study shows that in bad economic times, there is a compression of political representation: parties’ relationships with the societal groups they are closest to become less cooperative, while their relationships with the groups they are least close to become less conflictual.

Type
Articles
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below.

Footnotes

*

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University (email: swweschl@maxwell.syr.edu). For comments and suggestions, I am thankful to the anonymous reviewers, James Adams, Andreas Beger, Pablo Beramendi, Cassy Dorff, Andrew Eggers, Justin Gross, Jan Pierskalla, Karen Remmer and especially Michael Ward. The data used in this article stem from a project supported by the Office of Naval Research (via Contract N00014-12-C-0066). Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: doi:10.7910/DVN/XVPHO1 and online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000023.

References

Abramowitz, Alan I., and Saunders, Kyle L.. 2008. Is Polarization a Myth? Journal of Politics 70 (2):542555.10.1017/S0022381608080493CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, James, Ezrow, Lawrence, and Somer-Topcu, Zeynep. 2014. Do Voters Respond to Party Manifestos or to a Wider Information Environment? An Analysis of Mass-Elite Linkages on European Integration. American Journal of Political Science 58 (4):967978.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, James, Ezrow, Lawrence, and Wlezien, Christopher. 2016. The Company You Keep: How Voters Infer Party Positions on European Integration from Governing Coalition Arrangements. American Journal of Political Science 60 (4):811823.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bakker, Ryan, Vries, Catherine De, Edwards, Erica, Hooghe, Liesbet, Jolly, Seth, Marks, Gary, Polk, Jonathan, Rovny, Jan, Steenbergen, Marco, and Vachudova, Milada Anna. 2015. Measuring Party Positions in Europe: The Chapel Hill Expert Survey Trend File, 1999–2010. Party Politics 21 (1):143152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banducci, Susan, Giebler, Heiko, and Kritzinger, Sylvia. 2015. Knowing More from Less: How the Information Environment Increases Knowledge of Party Positions. British Journal of Political Science. Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123415000204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barberá, Pablo. 2015. Birds of the Same Feather Tweet Together: Bayesian Ideal Point Estimation Using Twitter Data. Political Analysis 23 (1):7691.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bardi, Luciano, Bartolini, Stefano, and Trechsel, Alexander H.. 2014. Responsive and Responsible? The Role of Parties in Twenty-First Century Politics. West European Politics 37 (2):235252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 2014. Ideology and Retrospection in Electoral Responses to the Great Recession. In Mass Politics in Tough Times: Opinions, Votes and Protest in the Great Recession, edited by Nancy Bermeo and Larry M. Bartels, 185223. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199357505.003.0007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, MatthewA. 2002. The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon. International Studies Quarterly 46 (2):263298.10.1111/1468-2478.00232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bechtel, Michael, Hainmueller, Jens, and Margalit, Yotam. 2014. Preferences for International Redistribution: The Divide Over the Eurozone Bailouts. American Journal of Political Science 58 (4):835856.10.1111/ajps.12079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2007. Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict. Journal of Politics 69 (4):975997.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernauer, Thomas, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2012. New Event Data in Conflict Research. International Interactions 38 (4):375381.10.1080/03050629.2012.696966CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bonica, Adam. 2014. Mapping the Ideological Marketplace. American Journal of Political Science 58 (2):367386.10.1111/ajps.12062CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boschee, Elizabeth, Lautenschlager, Jennifer, O’Brien, Sean, Shellman, Steve, Starz, James, and Ward, Michael D.. 2015. ICEWS Coded Event Data. Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28075, accessed 16 February 2016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boschee, Elizabeth, Natarjan, Premkumar, and Weischedel, Ralph. 2013. Automatic Extraction of Events from Open Source Text for Predictive Forecasting. In Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism, edited by V.S. Subrahmanian, 5167. New York: Springer.10.1007/978-1-4614-5311-6_3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brandt, Patrick T., Freeman, John R., and Schrodt, Philip A.. 2011. Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28 (1):4164.10.1177/0738894210388125CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Budge, Ian, Klingemann, Hans Dieter, Volkens, Andrea, Bara, Judith, and Tanenbaum, Eric. 2001. Mapping Policy Preferences, Estimates for Parties, Governments and Electors 1945–1998. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1981. The War Trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Calvo, Ernesto, and Hellwig, Timothy. 2011. Centripetal and Centrifugal Incentives under Different Electoral Systems. American Journal of Political Science 55 (1):2741.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chowanietz, Christophe. 2011. Rallying Around the Flag or Railing Against the Government? Political Parties’ Reactions to Terrorist Acts. Party Politics 17 (5):673698.10.1177/1354068809346073CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dancygier, Rafaela M., and Donnelly, Michael J.. 2013. Sectoral Economies, Economic Contexts, and Attitudes toward Immigration. Journal of Politics 75 (1):1735.10.1017/S0022381612000849CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dow, Jay K. 2011. Party-System Extremism inMajoritarian and Proportional Electoral Systems. British Journal of Political Science 41 (2):341361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ezrow, Lawrence. 2008. Parties’ Policy Programmes and the Dog that Didn’t Bark: No Evidence that Proportional Systems Promote Extreme Party Positioning. British Journal of Political Science 38 (3):479497.10.1017/S0007123408000240CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fenno, Richard F. Jr. 1978. Home Style: House Members in their Districts. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Fernandez-Albertos, Jose, Kuo, Alexander, and Balcells, Laia. 2013. Economic Crisis, Globalization, and Partisan Bias: Evidence from Spain. International Studies Quarterly 57 (4):804816.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P., Abrams, Samuel J., and Pope, Jeremy C.. 2005. Culture War? The Myth of Polarized America. 2nd Edition. New York: Pearson Longman.Google Scholar
Gerner, Deborah, J., Schrodt, Philip A., and Yilmaz, Omur. 2009. Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO): An Event Data Framework for a Post-Cold War World. In International Conflict Mediation: New Approaches and Findings, edited by Jacob Bercovitcch and Scott Sigmund Gartner, 287304. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Grimmer, Justin. 2013. Representational Style in Congress. What Legislators Say and Why It Matters. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139207782CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grimmer, Justin, Westwood, Sean J., and Messing, Solomon. 2015. The Impression of Influence: Legislator Communication, Representation, and Democratic Accountability. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Groeling, Tim, and Baum, Matthew A.. 2008. Crossing the Water’s Edge: Elite Rhetoric, Media Coverage, and the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon. Journal of Politics 70 (4):10651085.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hacker, Jacob S., Rehm, Philipp, and Schlesinger, Mark. 2013. The Insecure American: Economic Experiences, Financial Worries, and Policy Attitudes. Perspectives on Politics 11 (1):2349.10.1017/S1537592712003647CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herzog, Alexander, and Benoit, Kenneth. 2015. The Most Unkindest Cuts: Speaker Selection and Expressed Government Dissent during Economic Crisis. Journal of Politics 77 (4):11571175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J., and Nelson, Michael. 2003. Anatomy of a Rally Effect: George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism. PS: Political Science and Politics 36 (1):3742.Google Scholar
Hoff, Peter D. 2005. Bilinear Mixed Effects Models for Dyadic Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 100 (469):286295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoff, Peter D., Raftery, Adrian E., and Handcock, Mark S.. 2002. Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association 97 (460):10901098.10.1198/016214502388618906CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, John D., and Powell.G. Bingham, Jr. G. Bingham, Jr. Jr. 1994. Congruence between Citizens and Policymakers in Two Visions of Liberal Democracy. World Politics 46 (3):291326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Indridason, Indridi H. 2008. Does Terrorism Influence Domestic Politics? Coalition Formation and Terrorist Incidents. Journal of Peace Research 45 (2):241259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, and Lowe, Will. 2003. An Automated Information Extraction Tool for International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design. International Organization 57 (3):617642.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriesi, Hanspeter. 2012. The Political Consequences of the Financial and Economic Crisis in Europe: Electoral Punishment and Popular Protest. Swiss Political Science Review 18 (4):518522.10.1111/spsr.12006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lane, Philip R. 2012. The European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives 26 (3):4967.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1985. Power-Sharing in South Africa. Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California.Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1996. The Puzzle of Indian Democracy: A Consociational Interpretation. American Political Science Review 90 (2):258268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mair, Peter. 2009. Representative versus Responsible Government. Working Paper 8(9). Cologne, Germany: MPIfG.Google Scholar
Malhotra, Neil, and Margalit, Yotam. 2010. Short-Term Communication Effects or Longstanding Dispositions? The Public’s Response to the Financial Crisis of 2008. Journal of Politics 72 (3):852867.10.1017/S0022381610000216CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansbridge, Jane. 2003. Rethinking Representation. American Political Science Review 97 (4):515528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margalit, Yotam. 2013. Explaining Social Policy Preferences: Evidence from the Great Recession. American Political Science Review 107 (1):80103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, Lanny W., and Vanberg, Georg. 2008. Coalition Government and Political Communication. Political Research Quarterly 61 (3):502516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Metternich, Nils W., Dorff, Cassy, Gallop, Max, Weschle, Simon, and Ward, Michael D.. 2013. Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior. American Journal of Political Science 57 (4):892911.Google Scholar
Mikhaylov, Slava, Laver, Michael, and Benoit, Kenneth R. 2012. Coder Reliability and Misclassification in the Human Coding of Party Manifestos. Political Analysis 20 (1):7891.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O’Brien, Sean P. 2013. A Multi-Method Approach for Near Real Time Conflict and Crisis Early Warning. In Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism, edited by V.S. Subrahmanian, 401418. New York: Springer.10.1007/978-1-4614-5311-6_18CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pardos-Prado, Sergi, and Sagarzazu, Iñaki. 2016. The Political Conditioning of Subjective Economic Evaluations: The Role of Party Discourse. British Journal of Political Science 46 (4):799823.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pontusson, Jonas, and Raess, Damian. 2012. How (and Why) Is This Time Different? The Politics of Economic Crisis in Western Europe and the United States. Annual Review of Political Science 15:1333.10.1146/annurev-polisci-031710-100955CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poole, Keith T., and Rosenthal, Howard. 1997. Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 2004. Political Representation in Comparative Politics. Annual Review of Political Science 7:273296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr., and Vanberg, Georg S.. 2000. Election Laws, Disproportionality and Median Correspondence: Implications for Two Visions of Democracy. British Journal of Political Science 30 (3):383411.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr., and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science 37:391414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Proksch, Sven-Oliver, and Slapin, Jonathan B.. 2015. The Politics of Institutional Debate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ramshaw, Lance, Boschee, Elizabeth, Freedman, Marjorie, MacBride, Jessica, Weischedel, Ralph, and Zamanian, Alex. 2011. SERIF Language Processing–Effective Trainable Language Understanding. In Handbook of Natural Language Processing and Machine Translation: DARPA Global Autonomous Language Exploitation, edited by Joseph Olive, Caitlin Christianson and John McCary, 636644. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Riker, William H. 1964. Federalism: Origin, Operation, Significance. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Rüdig, Wolfgang, and Karyotis, Georgios. 2014. Who Protests in Greece? Mass Opposition to Austerity. British Journal of Political Science 44 (3):487513.10.1017/S0007123413000112CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sagarzazu, Iñaki, and Klüver, Heike. 2017. Coalition Governments and Party Competition: Political Communication Strategies of Coalition Parties. Political Science Research and Methods 5 (2):333349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwarz, Daniel, Traber, Denise, and Benoit, Kenneth. 2017. Estimating Intra-Party Preferences: Comparing Speeches to Votes. Political Science Research and Methods 5 (2):379396.10.1017/psrm.2015.77CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shambaugh, Jay C. 2012. The Euro’s Three Crises. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:157231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ward, Michael D., Ahlquist, John S., and Rozenas, Arturas. 2013. Gravity’s Rainbow. A Dynamic Latent Space Model for the World Trade Network. Network Science 1 (1):95118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ward, Michael D., Beger, Andreas, Cutler, Josh, Dickenson, Matthew, Dorff, Cassy, and Radford, Ben. 2013. Comparing GDELT and ICEWS Event Data. Available from http://mdwardlab.com/sites/default/files/GDELTICEWS_0.pdf, accessed 16 February 2016.Google Scholar
Weschle, Simon. 2017. Replication Data for: The Impact of Economic Crises on Political Representation in Public Communication: Evidence from the Eurozone, doi:10.7910/DVN/XVPHO1, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:tDqwKj23McBX/DguBgdiGg==.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Weschle supplementary material

Appendix

Download Weschle supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 482 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Weschle Dataset

Link
4
Cited by

Send article to Kindle

To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

The Impact of Economic Crises on Political Representation in Public Communication: Evidence from the Eurozone
Available formats
×

Send article to Dropbox

To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

The Impact of Economic Crises on Political Representation in Public Communication: Evidence from the Eurozone
Available formats
×

Send article to Google Drive

To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

The Impact of Economic Crises on Political Representation in Public Communication: Evidence from the Eurozone
Available formats
×
×

Reply to: Submit a response

Please enter your response.

Your details

Please enter a valid email address.

Conflicting interests

Do you have any conflicting interests? *