Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-dnltx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T08:35:20.027Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Beyond Nationalism and Regionalism: The Stability of Economic Voting in Canada

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 February 2018

Jean-François Daoust*
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal
Ruth Dassonneville*
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal
*
Département de science politique, Université de Montréal, Pavillon Lionel-Groulx, 3150 rue Jean-Brillant, Montréal QC, H3 T 1N8, email: jean-francois.daoust@umontreal.ca
Département de science politique, Pavillon Lionel-Groulx - C3124, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128 succursale Centre-ville, Montréal QC H3C 3J7, email: ruth.dassonneville@umontreal.ca

Abstract

Previous research has argued that while economic voting is quite consistently found to be an important mechanism in the rest of Canada, it is rather weak in Quebec. Guérin and Nadeau (1998) have demonstrated that whether or not citizens in Quebec vote economically depends on the party system. Following their lead, we expect that the presence of a dominant regionalist party in Quebec after 1993 (the Bloc Québécois) inhibited Quebeckers from voting economically. However, our results do not offer evidence for this hypothesis. Furthermore, we find only weak evidence of economic voting being moderated by voters’ attitudes towards Quebec independence. Our study hence suggests that the impact of economic accountability in Canada is not hindered by a strong regional party or by the salience of the issue of Quebec independence. The economic vote, it seems, is more stable and general than it is regularly argued to be.

Résumé

Des recherches ont démontré qu'alors que le vote économique est considéré de façon assez constante comme un mécanisme important dans le reste du Canada, il est plutôt faible au Québec. Guérin et Nadeau (1998) ont démontré que, lorsqu'il est exercé en ce sens, un choix de nature économique est dicté chez les citoyens du Québec par le régime des partis. Partant de ce constat, on pourrait penser que la présence prépondérante d'un parti politique régionaliste au Québec après 1993 (le Bloc Québécois) a empêché les Québécois d'exprimer un vote économique. Toutefois, nos résultats ne confortent pas cette hypothèse et nous ne trouvons par ailleurs que des éléments de preuve tenus à l'appui d'un vote économique modéré par les attitudes des électeurs envers l'indépendance du Québec. Notre étude nous amène donc à suggérer que l'incidence de la responsabilisation économique au Canada n'est pas inhibée par un parti régional fort ou par l'importance de la question de l'indépendance du Québec. Le vote économique est, semble-t-il, plus stable et général qu'on ne le prétend habituellement.

Type
Research Article/Étude originale
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, H. Christopher and Bartels, Larry M.. 2016. Democracy for Realists. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Anderson, Cameron D. 2008. “Economic Voting, Multilevel Governance and Information in Canada.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 41 (2): 329–54.Google Scholar
Anderson, Cameron D. and Stephenson, Laura. 2010. Voting Behaviour in Canada. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press.Google Scholar
Anderson, Cameron D. 2010. “Economic Voting in Canada.” In Voting Behaviour in Canada, ed. Anderson, Cameron D. and Stephenson, Laura. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press.Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric and Meguid, Bonnie M.. 2008. “Issue Salience, Issue Ownership, and Issue-Based Vote Choice.” Electoral Studies 27 (3): 477–91.Google Scholar
Cairns, Alain. 1968. “The Electoral System and the Party System in Canada 1921–1965.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 1 (1): 5580.Google Scholar
Clark, Harold and Kornberg, Allan. 1992. “Support for the Canadian Progressive Conservative Party since 1988: The Impact of Economic Evaluations and Economic Issues.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 25 (1): 2953.Google Scholar
Cutler, Fred. 2004. “Government Responsibility and Electoral Accountability in Federations.” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 34 (2): 1938.Google Scholar
Dassonneville, R. and Lewis-Beck, M.S.. 2017. “Rules, institutions and the economic vote: clarifying clarity of responsibility.” West European Politics 40 (3), 534–59.Google Scholar
Debus, Marc, Stegmaier, Mary and Tosun, Jale. 2014. “Economic Voting under Coalition Governments: Evidence from Germany.” Political Science Research and Methods 2 (1): 4967.Google Scholar
De Vries, Catherine E. and Giger, Nathalie. 2014. “Holding Governments Accountable? Individual Heterogeneity in Performance Voting.” European Journal of Political Research 53 (2): 345–62.Google Scholar
Duch, Raymond M. and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fournier, Patrick, Cutler, Fred, Soroka, Stuart, Stolle, Dietlind and Bélanger, Éric. 2013. “Riding the Orange Wave: Leadership, Values, Issues, and the 2011 Canadian Election.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 46 (4): 863–97.Google Scholar
Gélineau, François and Bélanger, Éric. 2005. “Electoral Accountability in a Federal System: National and Provincial Economic Voting.” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 35 (3): 407–24.Google Scholar
Gidengil, Elisabeth, Nevitte, Neil, Blais, André, Everitt, Joanna and Fournier, Patrick. 2012. Dominance and Decline. Making Sense of Recent Canadian Elections. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Godbout, Jean-François and Bélanger, Éric. 2002. “La dimension régionale du vote économique canadien aux élections fédérales de 1988 à 2000.” Revue canadienne de science politique 35(3): 567–88.Google Scholar
Guérin, Daniel and Nadeau, Richard. 1998. “Clivage linguistique et vote économique au Canada.” Revue canadienne de science politique 31(3): 557–72.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard, Blais, André, Brady, Henry E. and Crête, Jean. 1992. Letting the People Decide: Dynamics of a Canadian Election. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Kanji, Mebs, Bilodeau, Antoine and Scotto, Thomas J., 2012. The Canadian Election Studies. Assessing Four Decades of Influence. Vancouver: UBS Press.Google Scholar
Kam, C. and Franzese, R.. 2009. Modeling and Interpreting Interactive hypotheses in regression analysis. Ann Arbor MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Laycock, David and Erickson, Lynda. 2015. Reviving Social Democracy. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Stegmaier, Mary. 2013. “The VP-function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after over 40 Years.” Public Choice 157 (3): 367–85.Google Scholar
Lin, M., Lucas, H.C. Jr., and Shmueli, G., 2013. “Research Commentary: Too Big to Fail: Large Samples and the p-Value Problem.” Information Systems Research 24 (4), 906–17.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Bélanger, Éric. 2012. “Economics and Elections Revisited.” Comparative Political Studies 46 (5): 551–73.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard and Blais, André. 1993. “Explaining Election Outcomes in Canada: Economy and Politics.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 26 (4): 775–90.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard and Blais, André. 1995. “Economic Conditions, Leader Evaluations and Election Outcomes in Canada.” Canadian Public Polity 21 (2): 212–18.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Blais, André, Nevitte, Neil and Gidengil, Elisabeth. 2000. “It's Unemployment, Stupid! Why Perceptions about the Job Situation Hurt the Liberals in the 1997 Election.” Canadian Public Policy 26 (1): 7794.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Manin, Bernard and Stokes, Susan C.. 1999. Democracy, Accountability, and Representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Russell, Peter H. 2008. Two Cheers for Minority Government. Toronto: Emond Montgomery Publication.Google Scholar
Schafer, W.D. 2004. “Bonferroni technique.” In The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, ed. Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bryman, A. and Liao, T.F.. vol 1. Thousand Oaks CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Singer, M.M. 2011. “Who says ‘It's the economy’? Cross-national and cross-individual variation in the salience of economic performance.” Comparative Political Studies 44 (3): 284312.Google Scholar
Williams, R. 2009. “Using heterogeneous choice models to compare logit and probit coefficients across groups.” Sociological Methods & Research 37 (4): 531–59.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Daoust and Dassonneville supplementary material 1

Online Appendix

Download Daoust and Dassonneville supplementary material 1(File)
File 34.2 KB