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Probabilité conditionnelle et certitude*

  • Bas C. Van Fraassen (a1)

Personal probability is now a familiar subject in epistemology, together with such more venerable notions as knowledge and belief. But there are severe strains between probability and belief; if either is taken as the more basic, the other may suffer. After explaining the difficulties of attempts to accommodate both, I shall propose a unified account which takes conditional personal probability as basic. Full belief is therefore a defined, derivative notion. Yet we will still be able to picture opinion as follows: my subjective probability is only a grading of the possibilities left open by my beliefs. My conditional probabilities generally derive — in a sense to be explicated — from the strongest belief I can maintain when admitting the relevant condition.

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L. Blume , A. Brandenburger et E. Deckel 1991a «Lexicographic Probabilities and Choice under Uncertainty», Econometrica, vol. 59, p. 6179.

L. Blume , A. Brandenburger et E. Deckel 1991b «Lexicographic Probabilities and Equilibrium Refinements», Econometrica, vol. 59, p. 8198.

H. Leblanc et C. Morgan 1984 «Probability Functions and Their Assumption Sets — the Binary Case», Synthese, vol. 60, p. 91106.

H. Leblanc et P. Roeper 1993 «Getting the Constraints on Popper's Probability Functions Right», Philosophy of Science, vol. 60, p. 151157.

J. M. Spohn 1986 «The Representation of Popper Measures», Topoi, vol. 5, p. 6974.

Bas C. van Fraassen 1981 «Probabilistic Semantics Objectified», Journal of Philosophical Logic, vol. 10, p. 371394 et 495–510.

Bas C. van Fraassen 1995 «Fine-Grained Opinion, Probability, and the Logic of Full Belief», Journal of Philosophical Logic, vol. 24, p. 349377.

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Dialogue: Canadian Philosophical Review / Revue canadienne de philosophie
  • ISSN: 0012-2173
  • EISSN: 1759-0949
  • URL: /core/journals/dialogue-canadian-philosophical-review-revue-canadienne-de-philosophie
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