Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
×
Home

Cyclic patterns of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea for the years 1987–1996

  • B. D. DIMITROV (a1), D. VALEV (a2), R. WERNER (a2) and P. A. ATANASSOVA (a3)

Summary

Data on the dynamics of malaria incidence, admissions and mortality and their best possible description are very important to better forecast and assess the implementation of programmes to register, monitor (e.g. by remote sensing) and control the disease, especially in endemic zones. Semi-annual and seasonal cycles in malaria rates have been observed in various countries and close similarity with cycles in the natural environment (temperature, heliogeophysical activity, etc.), host immunity and/or virulence of the parasite suggested. This study aimed at confirming previous results on malaria cyclicity by exploring whether trans-year and/or multiannual cycles might exist. The exploration of underlying chronomes (time structures) was done with raw data (without smoothing) by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral (Fourier) and periodogram regression analysis. The strongest cyclical patterns of detrended malaria admissions were (i) annual period of 1·0 year (12 months or seasonality); (ii) quasi-biennial cycle of about 2·25 years; and (iii) infrannual, circadecennial cycle of about 10·3 years. The seasonal maximum occurred in May with the minimum in September. Notably, these cycles corresponded to similar cyclic components of heliogeophysical activity such as sunspot seasonality and solar activity cyclicities and well-known climate/weather oscillations. Further analyses are thus warranted to investigate such similarities. In conclusion, multicomponent cyclical dynamics of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea were observed thus allowing more specific analyses and modelling as well as correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity to be explored. Such further results might also contribute to and provide more precise estimates for the forecasting and prevention, as well as the better understanding, of the dynamics and aetiology of this vector-borne disease.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Cyclic patterns of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea for the years 1987–1996
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Cyclic patterns of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea for the years 1987–1996
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Cyclic patterns of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea for the years 1987–1996
      Available formats
      ×

Copyright

Corresponding author

*Author for correspondence: Dr B. D. Dimitrov, MD, MSc, SMHM, DM/PhD, Senior Lecturer in Medical Statistics, Academic Unit of Primary Care & Population Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Level C, South Academic Block, Southampton General Hospital, Southampton SO166YD, UK. (Email: b.dimitrov@soton.ac.uk)

References

Hide All
1.Gomez-Elipe, A, et al. Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003. Malaria Journal 2007; 6: 129.
2.Roca-Feltrer, A, et al. A simple method for defining malaria seasonality. Malaria Journal 2009; 8: 276.
3.Zhou, G, et al. Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2004; 101: 23752380.
4.Mabaso, ML, et al. Environmental predictors of the seasonality of malaria transmission in Africa: the challenge. American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 2007; 76: 3338.
5.Sidyakin, VT, et al. Cosmic Ecology [in Russian]. Kiev: Naukova Dumka Press, 1985, pp. 6970.
6.Cherry, N. Schumann resonances, a plausible biophysical mechanism for the human health effects of solar/geomagnetic activity. Natural Hazards 2002; 26: 279331.
7.Chizhevsky, AL. Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms [in Bulgarian]. Sofia: Nauka i Izkustvo, 1984.
8.Halberg, F, et al. Chronobiology's progress. Part I, season's appreciations 2004–2005: time-, frequency-, phase-, variable-, individual-, age- and site-specific chronomics. Journal of Applied Biomedicine 2006; 4: 138.
9.Billig, EMW, et al. Developmental allometry and paediatric malaria. Malaria Journal 2012; 11: 64.
10.Gay, F, et al. Cerebral malaria: what is known and what is on research. Revue Neurologique (Paris) 2012; 168: 239256.
11.Cibulskis, RE, et al. Estimating trends in the burden of malaria at country level. American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 2007; 77 (6 Suppl.): 133137.
12.Dimitrov, BD, Atanassova, PA. Cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea may show interannual cyclicity: an example of ≈1·5-year cycle for malaria incidence in Burundi. Nature Proceedings, 2008 (http://hdl.handle.net/10101/npre.2008.1769.1). Accessed 27 October 2010).
13.Dimitrov, BD, Komitov, BP, Dimitrova, BS. Analysis of incidence variations of some diseases in Bulgaria during XX century. Possible effect of solar activity [in Bulgarian with English Abstract]. Higiena i Zdraveopazvane 1990; 33: 914.
14.Valev, D. Statistical relationships between the surface air temperature anomalies and the solar and geomagnetic activity indices. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 2006; 31: 109112.
15.Komitov, B. The ‘Sun-climate’ relationship. I. The sunspots and the climate. Bulgarian Astronomical Journal 2009; 11: 139151.
16.Dimitrov, BD, Atanassova, PA, Rachkova, MI. Cyclicity of suicides may be modulated by internal or external ≈11-year cycles: an example of suicides rates in Finland. Sun & Geosphere 2009; 4: 5054.
17.Cazelles, B, et al. Time-dependent spectral analysis of epidemiological time-series with wavelets. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2007; 4: 625636.
18.Dimitrov, BD, et al. Cyclic patterns of malaria incidence in Burundi. Central European Journal of Biology 2011; 6: 5867.
19.Dimitrov, BD. Heliophysical activity and incidence variations of skin malignant melanoma in Czechoslovakia: a regional study. International Journal of Biometeorology 1993; 37: 6871.
20.Dimitrov, BD. Cyclic patterns of incidence variations for stomach cancer in the North-Western Region of England. Croatian Medical Journal 2000; 41: 197202.
21.Dimitrov, BD. Cyclicity in incidence variations of meningococcal infections in Bulgaria is similar to that of solar activity. Central European Journal of Public Health 2000; 8: 114116.
22.Dimitrov, BD, Rachkova, MI, Atanassova, PA. Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity. Journal Zhejiang University Science B 2008; 9: 489495.
23.Hagelberg, CR, Gamage, NKK. Application of structure preserving wavelet decompositions to intermittent turbulence: a case study. In: Foufoula-Georgiou, E, Kumar, P, eds. Wavelets in Geophysics. Academic Press, New York, 1994, pp. 4580.
24.Chowell, G, et al. The spatial and temporal patterns of falciparum and vivax malaria in Peru: 1994–2006. Malaria Journal 2009; 8: 142.
25.Tomasino, M, Zanchettin, D, Traverso, P. Long-range forecasts of River Po discharges based on predictable solar activity and a fuzzy neural network model. Hydrological Sciences 2004; 49: 673684.
26.Tian, J, Xu, J, Wei, E. The wavelet analysis of satellite sea surface temperature in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Chinese Science Bulletin 2000; 45: 21872192.
27.Kilian, AHD, et al. Rainfall pattern, El Nino and malaria in Uganda. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 1999; 93: 2223.
28.Mabaso, MLH, et al. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and annual malaria incidence in Southern Africa. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2007; 101: 326330.
29.Gill, CA. Malaria in England: with special reference to the role of temperature and humidity. Epidemiology & Infection 1921; 19: 320332.
30.Wangdi, K, et al. Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan. Malaria Journal 2010; 9: 251.
31.Huang, F, et al. Temporal correlation analysis between malaria and meteorological factors in Motuo County, Tibet. Malaria Journal 2011; 10: 54.
32.Ohtomo, K, et al. Relationship of cholera incidence to El Niño and solar activity elucidated by time-series analysis. Epidemiology & Infection 2010; 138: 99107.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Epidemiology & Infection
  • ISSN: 0950-2688
  • EISSN: 1469-4409
  • URL: /core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed